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#Post#: 135720--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: Ron Date: June 21, 2013, 10:19 am
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On Olney's broadcast, Baseball Tonight researcher Justin Havens
discussed Starlin Castro's tailspin this season. He pointed out
that Castro's swing and miss rate has gone way up, while his
isolated power has gone way down. Swing and miss in 2010 was
under 16%, 18% last year and over 20% this year. His isolated
power was 1.47 last year, .091 this year, among the lowest in
the league.
In terms of specific pitches, he noted that while Castro had
been very successful at hitting fastballs on the outer half of
the plate in the past (.332 BA and .852 OPS from 2010-2012),
this year, he has has been terrible with those pitches (.197 BA,
.536 OPS). In his words, "it's really mystifying how somebody
this talented and this highly regarded entering this season
could swing and miss so badly."
Theo noted that Castro had not had the experience of a sustained
period of failure that most young players have in the minors.
Perhaps that is getting in his head, causing him to dig himself
even deeper in the hole.
It seems reasonable to expect that the drastic changes in these
specific areas (where he had shown such a strength over three
prior seasons) are an aberration. is it possible that the
attempt to get him to be more selective has backfired? In any
event, I do think it's likely he will snap out of this at some
point.
#Post#: 135721--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: brjones Date: June 21, 2013, 10:20 am
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Not sure why they'd automatically trade Schierholtz. They're
not going to get a ton in a trade for him because he doesn't
have much of a track record. They're going to have to fill some
outfield holes in the offseason. And Schierholtz is under Cubs
control next year since he has less than 6 years of service
time--they'll be able to bring him back without breaking the
bank. And if they end up with more outfielders than they need
in the offseason, it's not like he's going to be hard to move
then.
Basically, they can probably move him for a C prospect right now
and open up a hole they have to fill in the offseason. Or, they
can hold onto him for now, re-evaluate whether or not they need
him in the offseason, and still get the same quality prospect
(or maybe even a better one if he sustains his performance in
the second half).
#Post#: 135723--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: Ron Date: June 21, 2013, 10:26 am
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I assume that they are not determined to trade Schierholtz (or
anyone else, except maybe Marmol and Soriano, if they could find
deals). The question is whether they can get adequately
valuable "long term assets" for any of these "short term
assets." But Schierholtz (who only turns 30 next February)
seems to be a very good transitional player for the next two or
three years until the Cubs' hot shot outfield prospects begin to
arrive. So I'd hope they would not trade him absent a very good
return.
#Post#: 135724--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: Deeg Date: June 21, 2013, 10:35 am
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Schierholtz isn't someone I'd be desperate to move, as he's
cheap and serviceable. But he is a good "sell high" candidate,
as it's likely his numbers will never be better than they are
right now. And the fact is, the Theocracy is probably getting a
little itchy to make something happen and worried about getting
burned by waiting too long to deal. With DeJesus basically off
the table, the Cubs have a limited number of guys with real
value. And the sum total of last year's fire sale is basically
a guy coming off two elbow surgeries who may never pitch again,
a 3B whose upside is a marginal big-league regular and a AA
starter whose fastball wouldn't break the skin on a custard. If
there's a decent offer out there for Schierholtz I think Theo
has no choice but to take it.
#Post#: 135727--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: Playtwo Date: June 21, 2013, 11:17 am
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Rusin has earned a call up if they deal Feldman. Takahashi has
also pitched very well in AAA. Bogusevic and Lake could also be
called up. Although it won't happen, I would like to see
Soriano given away since his occupation of a roster spot does
nothing useful (not even increasing fan interest in the team
anymore).
#Post#: 135735--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: JR Date: June 21, 2013, 11:59 am
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[quote]Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 1m
Have heard this from rival evaluators: The Cubs have started the
process of exchanging names with other teams on some of their
players.
#Post#: 135737--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: craig Date: June 21, 2013, 12:35 pm
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[quote author=brjones link=topic=108.msg135721#msg135721
date=1371828024]
...Schierholtz is under Cubs control next year since he has less
than 6 years of service time--they'll be able to bring him back
without breaking the bank. ....Basically, they can probably
move him for a C prospect right now and open up a hole they have
to fill in the offseason. Or, they can hold onto him for now,
re-evaluate whether or not they need him in the offseason, and
still get the same quality prospect (or maybe even a better one
if he sustains his performance in the second half).
[/quote]
I don't think so. In general and all else being equal, as club
control dwindles, so too does trade value. Right now Schierholz
has 1.5 years of control; this winter it will be 1.0; next
summer it will be 0.5 (or less). The longer you wait, the lower
goes the value.
That's all else being equal, of course. Perhaps 61 games of
.883-OPS aren't as persuasive as a full year, so perhaps the
scouting evaluations will be more firm later. Or not.
The other thing is supply and demand. No free agents out there
now; during the winter teams have lots of time and more possible
ways to address a need, so the supply is greater in winter. I
don't know if anybody now does have an OF need that schierholz
would help solve. But there are no injury-based needs in
winter. If a guy is hurt in November, he's got 5 months to
recover without missing a game; but if a guy gets injured during
the summer, months of recovery costs the season, and the demand
gets sharper.
#Post#: 135740--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: Playtwo Date: June 21, 2013, 1:05 pm
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We should see an uptick in performance of those players who feel
they may be auditioning for a chance to be moved to a contender.
#Post#: 135742--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: craig Date: June 21, 2013, 1:22 pm
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Why? You don't think they're playing hard for Sveum?
#Post#: 135744--------------------------------------------------
Re: Cubs in '13
By: Playtwo Date: June 21, 2013, 1:27 pm
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Lets just say that opportunity tends to focus a player's effort.
Particularly so for players on a team going nowhere.
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