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       #Post#: 1423--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: Kevin Date: February 3, 2019, 7:19 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Just regarding the JU87, I'm surprised these are only 1VP in the
       first place as they seem a juicer kill than bringing down the
       Bf-110 which is worth 1.5.  I'm sure there's a reason and
       certainly shouldn't be a wholesale change to the ADC. For this
       particular scenario with so much resting on protecting the
       embarking troops, it could be warranted. I decided in the second
       game to prioritize the attack on the second bombing group
       because the Heinkels are less likely to score big and it costs a
       lot of altitude to chase them.
       Also, do we know if the JU88 made a diving attack on the port or
       just a level run?  If memory serves, the air model was new to
       pilots in 1940 who were still coming to grips with it in
       general.
       #Post#: 1425--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: February 3, 2019, 11:25 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=Kevin link=topic=90.msg1422#msg1422
       date=1549199439]I'm curious what the historical results were on
       the port attack and if any bombers were lost to FLAK.[/quote]
       I just had a squint through Norman Franks's book and there's no
       mention of flak there. His account, from which I assembled the
       scenario, is focused on the RAF air actions, and the list of
       formations encountered. There's no hints as to the bombing
       profiles either, beyond the Ju 87s.
       #Post#: 1428--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: Kevin Date: February 3, 2019, 1:08 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=Lee Brimmicombe-Wood link=topic=90.msg1425#msg1425
       date=1549214738]
       I just had a squint through Norman Franks's book and there's no
       mention of flak there. His account, from which I assembled the
       scenario, is focused on the RAF air actions, and the list of
       formations encountered. There's no hints as to the bombing
       profiles either, beyond the Ju 87s.
       [/quote]
       Thanks for checking.  Either way, I'm sure you'll fix the
       conditions, and it will be good to see how other players' scores
       come in.  It's been fun doing the testing!  I'll probably pick a
       new one to execute in a week's time.
       #Post#: 1436--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: Okmed Date: February 3, 2019, 7:44 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [b]Scenario: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       Version: [/b]v0.1
       Players: Dave Demko (Germans), Ellen Demko (Brits)
       Narrative: We did not account for the restriction Peter
       mentioned on medium bombers [15.3.4] and let the He 111s glide
       bomb, starting from their initial altitude. This made no
       difference: a net +1 bombing modifier (glide bombing, versus
       altitude and not-attacked-by-flak), but the flak shot down an He
       111 (-1 on bombing from the flak table). I put the Veterans in
       the lead He 111 for maximum bombing accuracy, and it worked.
       They bombed the Port at 100%, 10%, and 0%, enough for Fatal
       damage. British fighters blew a couple easy tally rolls but
       rolled well on cohesion checks. German fighters broke about as
       soon as expected. On Turn 5 I decided to run away with the
       right-side Germans and try to coast to victory on my large VP
       lead. The British chased down the He 111s, needing 13 VP worth
       of air-to-air victories to force a draw. They almost succeeded,
       but the run-away ploy carried the game by 0.5 VP. That dodge
       made the high Hurricane squadron useless because it couldn't get
       close enough to tally. Unfortunately for the Brits, that's where
       Ellen had her veteran, hoping to set up for an early tally on
       the right-side German attackers.
       Victory:  Germans 36 VP for the Port; 2 VP for kills
       Brits 2 VP fighter kills + 20 VP bomber kills
       net 16, just barely a German victory
       Recommendations: Study whether the Germans have too much
       advantage in bombing. Notice that the lead He 111 squadron can
       pretty much bomb unopposed. Nothing wrong with that in terms of
       the historical narrative, but that and the value of the Port as
       a target are advantages for the Germans. I would not cap the VPs
       because the port at Dunkirk should be worth a lot. Two balancing
       options to consider: 1. Start the He 111s a bit further to the
       left, or 2. Adjust the VP requirements.
       #Post#: 1438--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: Okmed Date: February 3, 2019, 8:02 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       Version: v0.1
       Players: Dave Demko (Germans), Ellen Demko (Brits)
       Narrative: This playthrough uses the same first four turns as
       our previous test. Just before executing the run-away ploy, we
       saved the game. This is the continuation with the Germans
       pressing the attack with the Turn 5 bombers as well. So the
       situation on Turn 5 is that the Port has triple damage already.
       The Stukas circle so as to dive-bomb together. Ellen used her
       tallies on the withdrawing He 111s to gain altitide and try to
       set up against the high bombers, but those lower squadrons
       couldn't engage before the bomb runs. The higher fighters did
       have one turn against Stukas but did not harm them enough to
       degrade their bombing. On the Stukas' bomb run, The Brits
       engaged one with fighters and the other with direct fire flak.
       Victory: 36 VP for the Port, 6 VP for the flak; 3 VP for kills
       Brits 11 VP for fighter and Stuka kills, 1.5 VP against the Bf
       110s, and 12 VP for bomber kills
       net 20.5, solid German victory
       Recommendations: Ellen saw one tactial error on her part,
       getting greedy one turn too long shooting down He 111s. She has
       also shown by running the first few turns that, with a blown
       escort reaction, the middle and trailing He 111 can be savaged
       and broken, though the lead one always skates through. The
       Germans had plenty of bombing capacity to completely plaster
       both targets, and the Brits have a narrow time window to engage
       the bombers before they drop. This makes for an exciting game,
       with resource-allocation dilemmas for the Brits and
       opportunities of both sides to devise clever fighter-vs-fighter
       tactics. But still, victory needs to be a bit harder for the
       Germans.
       #Post#: 1442--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: Okmed Date: February 3, 2019, 11:57 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       once more, for comparison
       Scenario: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       Version: v0.1
       Player: Dave Demko (solo)
       Narrative: I played versus myself to try a different British
       plan from Ellen's. Two Spitfire squadrons starting in C7 and D6
       went after the He 111s, while the rest stayed at altitude in
       hopes of dealing with the other bomber groups. The Germans
       successfully reacted to the D6 Spitfires, split, and kept the
       Brits off the bombers completely for one turn. The He 111s
       bombed level. The Stukas dove to level 0 to dive bomb, and the
       Ju 88s used steep-angle bombing. The Brits underperformed in
       air-to-air, suffering two successful reactions, two failures of
       easy tally rolls, two squadrons breaking on their first combat,
       but zero dogfights. Air-to-air tactics were interesting, with a
       tally against a reacting escort leading to a furball, a big
       vertical fight around the Ju 88 squadron on its bomb run, and
       some Bf 109s able to re-form as escorts. The Germans almost
       completely saturated the targets, with Fatal on the Port and
       Crippling on the Lt Flak:
       He 111 25% Port
       He 111 10 Port
       He 111 10 Port
       Stuka 100% Port bombing through a barrage
       Stuka 50% Port bombing through a barrage
       Ju 88 50% Lt Flak
       Victory: Germans 36 VP Port, 4 VP Lt Flak, 3 VP kills
       Brits 5 VP killed Bf 109s, no other air-to-air or flak kills
       net 38 VP, a whopping German win
       Recommendations: Don't change the disjoint British setup because
       that's part of the narrative, i.e. come-as-you-are support over
       Dunkirk. Maybe consider reducing the German escorts by one
       squadron, but better than that would be to simply shift the VP
       thresholds to require very good bombing for a German victory.
       Ellen says she's reviewing our game assuming
       middle-of-the-bell-curve results for bombing and a few other
       factors. We'll let you know what comes up.
       #Post#: 1446--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: February 4, 2019, 3:15 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Brilliant AAR, Dave! I'd like to see Ellen's numbers, because
       the picture I'm getting is that it's too easy for the Germans to
       max out the Port target. I have no problem with that as such. I
       just would prefer the difference between, say, 2x bombing VP and
       3x VP to be in the hazard. The number crunching will help with
       that, but my instincts are to try and make the bombing harder.
       #Post#: 1447--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: February 4, 2019, 3:28 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Let's do some crunching on air-to-air action. VP outputs so far
       are:
       Kevin 1
       British: 5f, 4b
       German: 18f
       Kevin 2
       British: 7.5f, 4b
       German: 8f
       Dave 1
       British: 2f, 20b
       German: 2f
       Dave 2
       British: 12.5f, 12b
       German: 3f
       Dave 3
       British: 5f
       German 3f
       Okay, over five plays the British have been scoring an average
       of 6.4 VP against fighters and Stukas, and 8 VP against bombers.
       Average overall British air-to-air VP is 14.4.
       German average air-to-air VP is 6.8 VP.
       The net air-to-air VP is +7.6 VPs in favour of the British. The
       Median result is +3.5. The highest exchange result is +21.5 VPs
       in favour of the British, and the lowest exchange rate is -9
       VPs.
       The impression is that regardless of the bombing, the air-to-air
       action is very swingy, and it's there the scoring needs to be
       focussed.
       #Post#: 1449--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: Elias Nordling Date: February 4, 2019, 3:46 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       For the number crunching, my And Pete's first game had the
       following result:
       Germans: Bombing 36 (Crippling damage was already scored before
       the Ju88 bombed, so it considered bugging out).
       3 British fighters.
       British: 2 Bf109, 2 BF110, 1 He111: 7 points.
       There is a danger in looking only at the exchange ratio in air
       combat, because the British can maximize that by accepting the
       port gets bombed out and simply VP farm the He111s ignoring the
       rest. I think that should be one of several potential
       strategies, but if the British have a real chance of disrupting
       the Stukas, they should be able to reduce the damage from
       crippling to heavy. I'm not sure they have enough time to do so
       with the current setup.
       #Post#: 1450--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O01 Shall We Cancel the Party?
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: February 4, 2019, 4:22 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       That's a fair point. I'd like to get this to a place where the
       air-to-air action can affect the bombing enough to cross or not
       cross one of the damage thresholds. I suspect the scoring might
       need a wide 'draw window', maybe 5-6 VPs wide.
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