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       #Post#: 1544--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: chief2000
       Date: February 7, 2019, 11:50 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       You're right- that would have been one vp.  That is why I now
       keep my records with all the computations in detail since then.
       I will be much more careful in the future.
       #Post#: 1546--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 7, 2019, 11:55 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Data on air combat:
       Chris 1 - Germans 15f; Poles 10b (Poles -5 Vps)
       Chris 2 - Germans 8f; Poles 4b, 1z (Poles +0.5 VPs)
       Tomasz 1 - Germans 8f; Poles 2b (Poles -4 VPs)
       Chris 3 - Germans 5f; Poles 1b, 2z (Poles +0 VPs)
       Mark 1 - Germans 2f; Poles 3b, 1z, 1f (Poles +6.5 VPs)
       Tomasz 2 - Germans 5f; Poles 1b, 1z (Poles -1.5 VP)
       Chris 4 - Germans 1f; Poles 2z (Poles +2 VP)
       Mark 2 - Germans 2f; Poles 5b, 1f (Poles +9 VP)
       The net Polish air-to-air VPs are +0.93 VPs.
       I'm seeing a fight where the high German element is not seeing a
       lot of action. The whole thing looks imbalanced to me. Some
       thought is required here.
       #Post#: 1547--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: chief2000
       Date: February 7, 2019, 12:10 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       1. Would it help to put the 110s and the 109s on the same radio
       net?  They would then become alerted as soon as the Me-110
       tallies someone.
       2.  Also, change the mission of one of the 109s to sweep.  This
       will give them more flexibility to respond.
       #Post#: 1561--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: Markm51
       Date: February 8, 2019, 7:06 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: Lee Brimmicombe-Wood link ---
       >
       >
       > I'm seeing a fight where the high German element is not seeing
       a lot of action. The whole thing looks imbalanced to me. Some
       thought is required here.
       >
       --- End Quote ---
       Is that bad though?  Like real life, the Poles are outnumbered
       and maybe are not in the best position to defend all targets so
       they must make choices.  The 2 low squadrons are in a better
       position to hit the 17s than climb after the HE111s.  And 2
       flights of PE11s facing 2 sqdns of 109s seems like it could go
       either way and still not hit the bombers.
       How about changing the P11 sqdns to the "high" sector and moving
       the 2 flights to the low?  Unless the Poles bug out of the high
       sector altogether you will have a fairly even fighter match up.
       I may try that option if you give me the green light!
       #Post#: 1565--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 8, 2019, 8:19 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I have crunched any numbers yet, but if our math predicts a high
       likelihood that the high Heinkels will get 10 VP from bombing
       but the low Dorniers only 5 VPs, then we could pitch the victory
       levels to incentivise hitting the high guys.
       #Post#: 1603--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 10, 2019, 3:34 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I feel as if we have gotten this scenario a bit arse-about face.
       We have incentivised the pile-on to the low Dornier group when
       maybe we should be encouraging the Poles to hit the higher group
       or both groups.
       I want to try a radical change:
       (a) Set-up the Polish squadrons high and the Polish flights low.
       (b) Restore the Bf 110s to squadron strength to make them more
       of a threat.
       (c) Move the Heinkels back up an altitude level, which will cost
       them a little accuracy on the Bridge—enough to make a disruption
       worth a lot.
       (d) Shift the draw window upward, requiring the Germans to get
       14 VP to win.
       I’m hoping this incentivises either a defensive split, or a pile
       on to the high guys, because the low targets don’t present
       enough of a lucrative target.
       #Post#: 1680--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: Markm51
       Date: February 12, 2019, 8:01 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I took your bait and just finished the following play-test using
       the mods you suggested.
       Mark Merritt (solo)
       Set up the sqdns and flights as specified.
       Turn 1 had PE11 sqdns K and L tally HE111 Sqdns U and T.  No
       German ME109 tallied. Polish flight C tallied DO17 sqdn X,
       Polish flight N failed to tally.  BF110 Sqdn Q failed to tally.
       Polish Pe sqdn L performs a head on combat to HE111 T, no
       reaction possible by the 109s.  PE L scores no hits, nor do the
       HE111s.  No cohesion effects.  Polish flight C performs a head
       on combat to DO17 X, one hit scored, no Polish loss.
       Turn 2:BF109 C tallied Pe11 L, BF109 D tallied P11K.  Pe11N
       again fails tally roll (I guess they cant see...).  BF110
       tallied Pe11 C. Polish flight C downs another D17 from sqdn X,
       straggles one from BF110 Q; BF110 Q fires back, causing no loss,
       and promptly broke (rolled snake eyes!).  Pe11 C is disrupted,
       DO17 X disrupts.  Up higher, Pe11 K (veteran with expert)
       attacked He111 U and ME109 D (green).  The HE111 and ME109 both
       took a loss, as did PE11 K.  Expert OK, although both PE11 K and
       ME109 D disrupt.  The HE111 sqdn is OK.  the ME109 wanted to
       dogfight, the Poles fought it off.  Polish Pe11 L attacked He111
       T and Me109 C, no losses on either side.  Both Pe11 L and Me109
       C disrupt, and a dogfight ensues.
       Turn 3: Pe11 K attacked HE111 U and Me109 D, 1 He111 downed, 1
       Pe11 downed.  Both PE11 K and ME109 D break.  Bomber is OK.
       PE11 L dogfights ME109 C, Me109 shoots down one PE11, both
       fighter sqdns break.  So, up high, both PE11 sqdns are broke as
       are the ME109s.    Down below, flight Pe11 C attacks DO17 X,
       rolls a 12 on the combat table for 4 possible hits, scores 2
       hits actually.  PE11 C does not break, neither does the DO17.
       Pe11 N attacks DO17 V, causing 1 straggler, losses one plane to
       return fire.  PE11 N disrupts, DO17 is OK.
       Turn 4: DO17 V and X bomb the airfield, X gets a 10% hit, (2
       hits), V misses.  Pell C attacks DO17 X, scores no hits, DO17
       return fire downs 1 PE11.  PE11 C breaks.  PE11 N attacks DO17
       N, causing no hits; DO17 return fire downs another PE11, PE11
       flight N breaks.  DO17 V is OK.
       Subsequent turns:
       The HE 111s bomb the bridge, the wispy clouds obscure the target
       a bit, only sqdns U and T score, and then only with 10% hits
       each for 6 hits (5 VPs).
       Final score:
       German: 6 VPs for shot down PE11s, 5 VPs for bridge damage, 1 VP
       for airfield damage.  12 VPs total.
       Poles:  8 VPs for downed DO17s, 4 VPs for 2 HE111s. 1 VP for
       downed ME109.  13 VPs total.
       POLISH VICTORY!
       Thoughts.
       The HE111 group was much more contested; I felt that shifting
       the 2 PE11 sqdns gave the poles the confidence they needed to
       take on that group plus the ME109s on.  And they shot down 2
       HE111s and one ME109!  What with the dogfight and other
       activity, it was busy up there.
       The DO17 group was again unlucky, the BF110 sqdn breaking at
       first opportunity gave the Poles the victory.    I toyed with
       ignoring that break but decided to play it out.  Im sure that
       most games will keep the 110 in action long enough to keep the
       PE11 flights busy and off the bombers better.
       It was a wild and wooly fight; the Poles lost 6 PE11s, the
       Germans 4 DO17s, 2 HE111 and 1 BF109.  The bombing was poor,
       again, a better result might have swung this to a German
       victory.  The game felt like a draw, 6 PE11s was a rather high
       price, but then 6 bombers was a big haul as well.  I like the
       new set up.  Guaranteed action both high and low!
       #Post#: 1682--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 12, 2019, 8:22 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Great AAR!
       It appears to me that the bombers under-performed. In the case
       of the Dorniers they had one unit disrupted and the other
       missed. The Heinkels definitely under-performed. If the math is
       right they should normally be doing a lot better than this.
       Are you prepared to sign off on this one?
       #Post#: 1683--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: Markm51
       Date: February 12, 2019, 8:29 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I am.  Luck on rolls can always swing these games, that’s the
       fun of it.  The HE111s faced -2 on their bombing, (-2 for
       altitude, -1 for clouds and a +1 for no flack,) so they need
       better than average rolls to score, but you would have thought
       that one of the 3 could have done this.  Somebody will not be
       happy back at the base!
       #Post#: 1685--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 12, 2019, 8:38 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       It's also worth noting in your playing that the Poles had +7 in
       their favour on the air-to-air exchange, which also made a big
       difference to the score.
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