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       #Post#: 1497--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: chief2000
       Date: February 6, 2019, 7:36 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Yes, I meant the targets.  I didn't think so.  I just replayed
       the scenario and wanted to make sure my calculations were
       correct.
       #Post#: 1511--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: niedziak
       Date: February 6, 2019, 12:11 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: O03 Warsaw Concerto
       Version: v0.2
       Playtesters: Tomasz Niedziński (Solo)
       Report: I played it similarly to my previous game to see how it
       will differ. Two Polish squadrons waited for Dorniers between
       clouds, while two flights set up on the route of the Heinkels.
       One of the Polish veterans was placed with lower squadrons,
       German veteran and expert was placed with Bf110. Polish expert
       flew with higher flights.
       Dorniers were intercepted close to the target. Bf110 flight
       defended it adequately, not scoring many hits, but also not
       allowing Dorniers to sustain any losses or be disrupted in any
       way. Polish planes tried to score some more hits after airfield
       was bombed, but only managed to shot down one of the Bf110s.
       They took three losses, mostly after veteran squadron broke out
       of the fight. When fighting in numbers (two squadrons), Poles
       can stand on their own, but when they are alone they start to
       suffer losses very quickly, especially when on defence.
       Fortunately for them Bf110 broke at the same time they did
       (mostly by lucky roll).
       In the meantime, above them, Polish flights attacked Heinkels en
       mass. Bf109 escorts failed utterly, attacking piecmeal and
       breaking after only one turn of combat each. Poles took, thanks
       to that, two turns of undisrupted attacks on the Heinkels,
       before going home out of ammo, shooting unfortunately only one
       and not disrupting them. Heinkels, seeing their escorts failing,
       put up rugged defence shooting down two P.11s (they rolled
       boxcars on the first turn of their solitaire defence).
       Victory:
       German bombing 5+10 VPs + enemies shot down 5 VPs (5 P.11C)
       Polish enemies shot down 3.5 VPs (1 He111, 1.5 Bf110)
       Total: +16.5 VPs, German Victory
       Recommendations: Although Germans scored better then in previous
       game, this one felt more balanced (most of the points came from
       very good bombing rolls - airfield took 5 hits and bridge 11,
       both being one hit from next damage level). Also, I made few
       tactical mistakes that I noticed after the game ended and would
       be able to score better if correcting them. I don't think that
       reducing Bf110 to flight and adding one flight to Poles is too
       much. I would even opt for shifting VP level by two points in
       favor of Poles.
       Overall this one feel better. Poles don't have it easy, but now
       have some interesting options to explore.
       What in my opinion would work very good toward balancing this
       games is giving half VP for P.11 shot down, instead of one, but
       I understand this would be hard to define as a clear guideline
       for future ADC creation and revision of current ones.
       #Post#: 1512--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 6, 2019, 12:35 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Thanks, that's a great AAR. Very illuminating. I shall try to
       crunch the VP numbers at the weekend to see if they justify
       shifting the 'draw window' further.
       #Post#: 1514--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: chief2000
       Date: February 6, 2019, 12:56 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: O03 Warsaw Concerto
       Version: v0.2
       Playtesters: Chris Bryans (Solo)
       Report: This is my third play test of this scenario.  Once
       again, I started out the Polish squadrons and flights at the
       same level in order to attack the Dorniers frontally.  Flights
       are in J1, sqdns in L1.
       Height error failed.
       Turn one:
       Both Pzl 11 flights tally the first Do-17.
       Pzls circle waiting for first Do-17 to enter their square. 110
       escort tallies one of the Pzl flights (containing veteran and
       experte One squadron of Pzls tally the second Do-17.
       The Heinkels and their 109 escorts move.
       One Pzl flight keeps the 110 busy while the other targets the
       Do-17.
       Pzl 11 vet flt suffers a straggler and 110 is clear.  Cohesion
       roll 110 disrupts, Pzl disrupts too.
       Head on between second Pzl flt and first Do-17: no hits by
       either.  Cohesion roll - both are ok.
       
       Both 110 and Pzl agree to dogfight.
       Pzl sqdn with vet attacks second Do17 frontally.  No score on
       either side.  Cohesion roll - both are ok.
       Turn two:
       Second Pzl squadron tallies first Do-17.  Other tallies
       maintained.   First 109D tallies second Pzl squadron. Second 109
       tally fails.
       Dogfight has shifted one space left.  110 is trying to move it
       as far as possible away from the path of the bombers.
       Heinkels continue to target with one 109 escort.  The other
       dives to intercept second Pzl squadron attacking Do-17 butt
       can't get there in time.
       110 flt and first Pzl 11 flight dogfight - Pzl loses none; 110
       two losses. Cohesion roll breaks 110 and Pzl maintains at
       disrupted.
       Pzl squadron and flight attack first Do-17 - no losses on either
       side.  Cohesion:  all ok
       Second PZl flight (vet) attacks second Do-17 - no losses on
       either side.
       Cohesion roll - both good.  I think they are engaged in an air
       show rather than actual combat
       Turn three
       Me-109D tallies Pzl squadron attacking second Do-17.  Pzl flight
       drops tally against 110 which leaves the combat area and tallies
       109D.  Second 109D fails tally against that same Pzl flight.
       All other tallies maintained.
       First Do-17 squadron against two Pzl 11(one flight one squadron)
       Do-17 lose none, one Pzl-11 loss.
       Cohesion: Pzl flight breaks.  Pzl sqdn breaks.   Do-17 cohesion
       still good.  Terrible rolls for the Poles who seemed to have all
       the advantages this time.
       Second Pzl squadron against second Do-17 - no casualties again.
       Pzl 1 breaks. Do-17 is fine.
       109D vs Pzl 11 flight (with vet and experte) Pzls:  two
       stragglers 109d one straggler
       Cohesion:  Pzl breaks.  109d is fine.
       Thus, at the end of turn three, all Polish flights/squadrons
       have broken with only one loss and three stragglers among all of
       them.
       
       Turn four:
       Pzls drop all tallies and leave the combat area.
       Bombing run
       Do-17 one and two miss the target (first rolls a 4, the second a
       three).  Even with the plus one modifier for no flak still
       leaves them below 6.
       
       Turns five and six: He--111 and second 109 continue to target
       turn seven
       Bomb run:
       He-111 #1: rolls 11-1-1+1=10 =50% on target=9.5 rounds to 10
       He-111 #2: rolls 5-1+1=5 miss
       turn eight
       He-111 #3:  rolls 10-1-1+1=9 = 25% on target= 4.75 rounds to 5
       Victory:
       15 damage points on target (crippling damage):2x10 vp=20 VP
       Germans: 7 damage points: 20 vp plus one pzl-11 = 21 vp
       Poles: 2 Me-110 = 3 vp
       21-3=18 German victory
       Recommendations:   Adding another Pzl-11 and reducing the Me-110
       from a squadron to a flight was a good idea and would have
       balanced the scenario very well were it not for abysmal die
       rolls.  From the beginning of the scenario, the Poles clearly
       had the initiative – the early breaking of the 110 left them in
       control of the airspace despite the intervention of one of the
       109D.  The fact that all four Poles broke during turn three
       turned around what should have been at least a draw.  Indeed,
       they broke with only one loss and two stragglers among them.
       Suggested fixes:
       1.
       2.
       3.
       of veteran/experte/green flights/squadrons secret until tallied.
       This would prevent enemy flights from engaging the best
       squadrons just to keep them away from the prizes such as bombers
       or other objectives.
       #Post#: 1525--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 7, 2019, 2:48 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I'm interested in the thinking behind the suggestion to add
       cloud to the target.
       Regarding your third suggestion, I've generally kept secrets out
       of the game. I know that a lot of folks enjoy playing solo, and
       I'd like to keep supporting that.
       #Post#: 1530--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 7, 2019, 3:33 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I just wanted to check back on the bombing results in scenarios
       so far:
       Chris 1 - Bridge 10 VPs; Airfield 3 VPs (not sure how you can
       get 3 VPs on the Airfield, Chris? Is that 5 VPs?)
       Chris 2 - Bridge 0 VP; Airfield 1 VP
       Tomasz 1 - Bridge 5 VPs; Airfield 1 VP
       Chris 3 - Bridge 0 VP; Airfield 6 VPs
       Mark 1 - Bridge 20 VPs; Airfield 1 VP
       Tomasz 2 - Bridge 10 VPs; Airfield 5 VPs
       Chris 4 - Bridge 20 VPs; Airfield 0 VP
       Okay, so we get the following average VP outputs:
       Bridge - 9.2 VPs
       Airfield - 2.4 VPs
       Average bombing VPs is 11.7 VPs
       The impression is that the Bridge can be all or nothing, while
       the airfield is hard to make a dent in with the Dorniers.
       #Post#: 1534--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: chief2000
       Date: February 7, 2019, 9:58 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I'm not sure how to reference conversations as many do by
       inserting them into a reply (I'm pretty new at forums).
       1.  How did I get 3 vp for bombing the airfield?  It may have
       been a typo and was supposed to be 2.  Since that first playtest
       of Warsaw Concerto, I've kept very detailed typed notes of every
       aspect of every turn to avoid such errors in the future.  My
       bad!
       2.  Justification behind placing clouds over the target for the
       He-111:  to better balance the scenario and to make it harder
       for the Heinkels to plaster the target.  Placing them back at
       altitude 5 may be enough but I'd still like to try it.
       3.  I certainly support the idea of making all games solitaire
       friendly.  It would be a nice house rule, though, and very
       simple.  If there are two fighters to choose from to tally, make
       a simple die roll.  1-3 you choose the less-effective
       flight/squadron., 4-6 the more experienced.  If there are three,
       just divide the die roll by 3 (1-2, 3-4, 5-6)  Easy and adds a
       bit of uncertainty.
       #Post#: 1536--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 7, 2019, 10:06 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: Chris Bryans link ---
       > I'm not sure how to reference conversations as many do by
       inserting them into a reply
       --- End Quote ---
       The Quote button is your friend, creating a new post with the
       old one quoted between quote tags.
       --- Quote from: Chris Bryans link ---
       > 1.  How did I get 3 vp for bombing the airfield?  It may have
       been a typo and was supposed to be 2.  Since that first playtest
       of Warsaw Concerto, I've kept very detailed typed notes of every
       aspect of every turn to avoid such errors in the future.  My
       bad!
       --- End Quote ---
       That still doesn't compute. The airfield should generate a
       result of 1, 5, 10, 20 or 30 VPs, depending on the number of
       hits. There is no result of 2 VPs.
       --- Quote from: Chris Bryans link ---
       > 2.  Justification behind placing clouds over the target for
       the He-111:  to better balance the scenario and to make it
       harder for the Heinkels to plaster the target.  Placing them
       back at altitude 5 may be enough but I'd still like to try it.
       --- End Quote ---
       Fair enough. I'll think on that one.
       #Post#: 1541--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: Markm51
       Date: February 7, 2019, 10:46 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Version: v0.2
       Playtesters: Mark Merritt (Solo)
       Report:
       I played this one using the new version Lee posted a few days
       ago.  A different game then the last play!
       I placed the 2 flights (one with a veteran crew) of P.11s at J4
       and M4.
       The 2 Sqdns. of P11s (one with with the Expert and Veteran crew)
       were placed in L2 and M2 looking for a head on attack against
       the DO17s.
       The ME110 Flight (C) (with veteran crew and expert) was placed
       in H1 providing close cover. one square back from the lead DO17.
       The ME109s were placed one level above and one square behind
       the lead HE111s as top cover.
       Turn one I dove the two flights of P11s to attack the DO17s, got
       to height 2 behind the last DO17.  I closed the distance for the
       remainder of the sqdns, no tallies, the vector locations were
       not affected by height errors.
       Turn two saw the P11 Squadron  tally the lead DO17 Sqdn V and
       attack head on (with the ME110 Sqdn C escorting), P11 sqdn K
       tallied DO17 sqdn X.  DO17 Sqdn X took one loss, causing P11
       sqdn K (with the veteran crew and expert) a loss, but not
       breaking.  ME110 C suffered no losses but Broke (rolled a 2 on
       cohesion..), so, the ME110 never made a difference to the game.
       These were head on attacks.
       The 2 P11 flights got behind DO17 Sqdn V could not close to
       combat this turn.  ME109 sqdn C tallied and dove on P11 flight C
       leaving ME109 sqdn D as lone top cover for the HE 111s.  This
       was the green sqdn so I figured they would be a hinderance to
       fighting and left them with the bombers.  It seemed like a
       realistic call that would have been made; sending all your
       fighter support to the deck and leaving the top bombers exposed
       did not seem like a good move.
       Turn 3 saw the 2 P11 flights (C and N) catch up with DO 17 sqdn
       X.  ME109 C had earlier tallied P11 flight C which had a tally
       on DO Sqdn X.  P11 flight  N had a tally on DO 17 Sqdn V, a
       square ahead of this group, so was not part of the combat.  At
       the same time P11 Sqdn K also continued their tally on DO17 sqdn
       X and P11 Sqdn L tallied DO 17 sqdn V.  So, I had two combats.
       DO sqdn X was attacked by P11 Flight C and sqdn K, with flight C
       being attacked by ME109 sqdn C.  P11 Flight N was in the space
       but not participating. In the next square, DO 17 sqdn V was
       attacked by P11 Sqdn L.  Combat results saw DO 17 sqdn X loose
       another bomber and P11 flight C loose a fighter.  DO 17 sqdn V
       was unaffected by the P11 sqdn L attack.  ME109 sqdn C was
       disrupted, as well as P11 Sqdn K.  Sqdn K had the veteran crew
       and expert.
       Turn 4 saw continued combat, P11 flight C and Sqdn K attacking
       DO17 sqdn X, with ME 109 Sqdn C defending.  DO17 sqdn V was
       being attacked by P11 sqdn L and flight N.  Flight C scored
       another loss on DO17 sqdn X, breaking this sqdn, and a loss to
       ME109 sqdn C.  ME109 sqdn C shot down a P11 from sqdn K,
       breaking sqdn K (expert unaffected).   P11 flight C was hanging
       in there though.  DO17 sqdn V was disrupted by the attacks of
       P11 sqdn L and flight N ,no loss though to either side.
       Turn 5 had the DO17s complete their bomb run, with pesky P11
       flight C shooting down two more DO17s, for a total loss of 5
       from sqdn X!  ME109 sqdn C wiffed and Both ME109 sqdn C and P11
       flight C broke after this combat, finally leaving the DO17s in
       peace to get home.  The bombing was moderately successful,
       scoring 7 hits or 5 VPs.  DO17 sqdn V lived a charmed life,
       being unaffected by P11 flight N and sqdn L, both of which broke
       and left the scene.
       Turns 6-7 completed the HE 111 bombing profiles.  They did
       poorly this time out, causing only a 10% hit from one bomber for
       3 hits or 1 VP.
       
       Final score:  German 8 VPs (1 for the bridge hits, 5 for the
       airfield and 2 for 2 P11s shot down).  The Poles garner 11 VPs
       (2 each for 5 DO17s and 1 VP for 1 ME109).
       Again, due to the losses of bombers, it felt like a Polish
       victory.  The bombing was generally poor, and with ME110 flight
       being broken so early in the combat that unit was never used to
       its fullest potential.
       I have no further recommendations; luck swings based on wild
       dice rolls make an interesting narrative.    I like this
       scenario because there is plenty of room for furious air-to-air
       combat followed by some cool bombing opportunities.  I think
       there is plenty of replay opportunities, like, why not send down
       that lone ME109 to the deck to strafe the airfield or bridge? I
       should have done it, just forgot as the play progressed.  It's a
       good story.
       #Post#: 1542--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O03 Warsaw Concerto
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: February 7, 2019, 11:26 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Thanks Mark, your AAR brings the bombing averages to:
       Bridge - 8.25 VPs
       Airfield - 2.5 VPs
       We are getting really mixed results for the bombing, with
       results ranging from 0 to 20 VP for the Bridge.
       Heinkels
       Current net bombing modifiers for the Heinkels are -1 (-1
       altitude; -1 target defence, +1 no flak). Each Heinkel has the
       following pNs:
       0.583 for 10% hit (2 hits)
       0.278 for 25% hit (5 hits)
       0.083 for 50% hit (10 hits)
       So we have a cumulative pN of 0.92 of getting at least one 10%
       hit or better; and 0.19 of getting three 10% hits
       We have a cumulative pN of 0.62 of getting at least one 25% hit
       or better; and 0.18 of getting two 25% hits
       We have a cumulative pN of 0.22 of getting at least one 50% hit
       or better; and 0.01 of getting two 50% hits
       Mean damage for the Heinkels is 2.42, meaning that we should
       expect three unmolested Heinkels to be getting 7.26 hits on
       average, or enough to score 10 VP, unless they can be stopped by
       fighters.
       Dorniers
       Current net bombing modifiers for the Dorniers are +1 (+1 no
       flak). Each Dornier has the following pNs:
       0.833 for 10% hit (1 hits)
       0.583 for 25% hit (3 hits)
       0.278 for 50% hit (5 hits)
       0.083 for 100% hit (10 hits)
       So we have a cumulative pN of 0.99 of getting at least one 10%
       hit or better; and 0.69 of getting two 10% hits
       We have a cumulative pN of 0.82 of getting at least one 25% hit
       or better; and 0.33 of getting two 25% hits
       We have a cumulative pN of 0.47 of getting at least one 50% hit
       or better; and 0.07 of getting two 50% hits
       Mean damage for the Dorniers is 2.58, meaning that we should
       expect two unmolested Dorniers to be getting 5.16 hits on
       average, or enough to score 5 VP, unless they can be stopped by
       fighters.
       It will be interesting to compare these numbers to the AARs to
       gauge how much the interceptors did to interfere with the
       bombers.
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