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#Post#: 2350--------------------------------------------------
Re: O07 Enter the Zero
By: Elias Nordling Date: April 28, 2019, 2:22 pm
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v0.2
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
After slugging a bit with The Wuhan Clan (it is not a bad
scenario, just fairly big and demanding), this one was a breeze.
It is a really interesting puzzle for both sides, from the setup
and on, and I feel I could spend quite a lot of plays trying to
figure it out. The assymmerty is massive, with the Japanese
outnumbered 4:1 but with a software and hardware edge that more
than makes up for it.
In my game, the Chinese tried to get through to the bombers at
any cost and the Japanese did all they could to stop them. The
Japanese basically smashed the two green squadrons on turn 1,
shooting down 5 fighters, breaking one squadron and disrupting
the other. The cost was altitude, the I16 in particular sailing
out of reach. The Japanese then ignored the green and disrupted
I15, which got a weak shot at a bomber squadron before breaking.
The last I15 squadron was also taken care of before catching up
with the bombers, but the I16 got two attacks on the bombers
before breaking. No bombers, or Zeros for that matter, were shot
down, but one of the bombers were disrupted.
The fleeing I16 were pursued by the zeros that were still both
around, and in one last combat, 4 more Chinese fighters were
shot down. This was enough to secure the victory in a result
that ringed very true to the historical account.
Score:
Japanese exit 15 + 11 Chinese fighters: 26
Chinese: 0
Score 26. Japanese win. Felt like a Japanese win, obviously.
Comments: I really like this scenario! It has one problem,
though, and it's an old one: If the Chinese just run away, they
win, since exiting the bombers in good order gives only 18
points. Given the free setup, getting away without being hurt
isn't a given, but given the odds of getting a favourable
exchange ratio in combat, it is not a bad bet.
So, the Japanese win level needs to be a 18, or possibly 1 or 2
points above that as I think they can be sure of a few kills on
turn 1 even if all the Chinese fighters are gone by turn 2 which
will be the case in a runaway strategy. Obviously, the Chinese
will then need ways to gain more points.
My suggestion is that the Chinese gets double their VP:s in this
scenario.
This basically gives them two options. One is to go for the
bombers at any cost, with the 4 VP for a lucky kill or 3 VP for
disruption, or both, as an attractive path to victory, or slug
it out with the Zeros with the intention of getting a better
than 1:2 loss ratio by maximizing the advantage of numbers. I
think that should work, though I haven't checked the numbers
against the earlier playthroughs.
#Post#: 2357--------------------------------------------------
Re: O07 Enter the Zero
By: pilotofficerprune Date: April 29, 2019, 9:00 am
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Okay, this is an interesting scenario in that it has hardly
changed since the first playing. So let's look at the data.
I'm leaving out Kevin's first two plays as they seem to be
outliers, and I don't have a breakdown of the Chinese
bomber/fighter kills.
Here's the VPs:
Japanese exit = 18 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 18 + 15 = 16 mean value
Japanese vs. fighters = 5 + 6 + 13 + 4 + 8 + 11 = 7.8 mean value
Chinese vs. bombers = 0 + 0 + 0 + 2 + 0 + 0 = 0.3 mean value
Chinese vs. fighters = 0 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 0 + 0 = 1 mean value
This gives us a mean output of 23.8 - 1.3 = 22.5 VPs
The interesting thing here is that on 67% of plays the Chinese
were able to disrupt one Japanese bomber squadron.
The problem here is twofold:
(1) As Elias notes the Chinese can win by running away.
(2) The Japanese are ratcheting up big scores on the Chinese
fighters, making the incentive to run away greater.
(3) The draw window is really wide on a game in which the
Japanese are really dominant.
My temptation is to do the following:
(a) Reduce the draw window so that Chinese can win on +20 or
less; a draw is +21 to +22; Japanese victory is +23.
(b) Give the Japanese a VP bonus of +2 VP for each bomber
squadron that exits the right map edge undisrupted and with no
straggler/loss markers on it.
The special rule would basically gift the Japanese a win should
the Chinese not engage, and should increase the incentive to go
for the bombers.
Any thoughts?
#Post#: 2361--------------------------------------------------
Re: O07 Enter the Zero
By: Elias Nordling Date: April 30, 2019, 12:11 am
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I like the general idea of it, but instead of having both
regular exit points, an exception in itself AND a special rule
layered on top of it, I'd preder to have b) being THE bomber
exit scoring rule, ignoring the "regular" exit rule altohether.
It would make it cleaner and easier to follow.
#Post#: 2365--------------------------------------------------
Re: O07 Enter the Zero
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 1, 2019, 2:02 pm
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v0.2
Player: Elias Nordling (Solo)
This one felt a bit like a Chinese dream outcome. Both Zeros
broke after their second combat and the Chinese even managed to
down one of them. The initial Japanese bounce at +4(+1) also
scored only 2 kills. After the Zeros were gone, the Chinese
still had one fresh I16 and one disrupted I15. The I16 took the
time to make deliberate attacks and switch targets, while the
I15 made one ineffective attack that nevertheless disrupted a
bomber squadron. One bomber from one of each squadron was
downed.
Final score (per the suggestion above)
Japanese: Exit 1 unscathed=8, one with a downed bomber=6, one
disrupted=3. 4 Chinese fighters. Total 21
Chinese: 2 bombers, 1 Zero: 5
Total score: 16 Chinese victory
Felt like: A bloody amazing Chinese performance.
Comment: I feel like I could spend a lot of time trying to
figure out perfect setups and strategies with this one. The
Japanese probably shouldn't ignore the I16 but the I15:s are
easier to dispatch quickly. If the tallied I15:s get tallies
too, they can dive and put the Zeros in an awkward position.
Lots of possible outcomes. For now, I'll move on and leave you
with another data point for the score. I'll probably want to get
back on it later to check if the scoring feels right but other
than that I think it's done.
#Post#: 2366--------------------------------------------------
Re: O07 Enter the Zero
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 1, 2019, 2:38 pm
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So I think we know what the scores need to be, and just have to
rejig the score outputs to avoid the 'Chinese run away' problem.
I'll get to that at the weekend.
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