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#Post#: 2822--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: Elias Nordling Date: July 23, 2019, 2:47 pm
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v0.6
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
Another game, another Czech failure. The bombers rolled
abysmally, with one 7 at best in 3 rolls on +0. Small arms flak
broke one fighter. Air combat was mostly brief and ineffective
except for a singl German Bf109 that refused to roll below 10 on
cohesion and was still there when all the bombers had left. It
was the one with the experte, so as a result 3 bombers were
downed. Could have been even more. The bombers managed to shoot
down 2 fighters at least.
Czech
Bombing 2, 2 fighters: 4
Germans: 3 bombers: 6
Total -2 German win.
Comment: I jettisoned the bombs with a Czech fighter to engage
the German fighters this turn, but I probably shouldn't have. It
stayed around for only one round of combat, only giving the
bombers a one column combat shift. The fighters are better used
for bombing and strafing after all.
I haven't tracked all my rolls but I have a feeling I have
consistently under-rolled in bombing rolls with the Czech. Most
bombings will be at +0, yet I've rarely got better than 10% in
bombing. Strafing the trucks has a 4% chance of a hit but I
rarely see those either.
#Post#: 2834--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: Elias Nordling Date: July 26, 2019, 1:48 pm
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v0.6
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
This time I kept record of die rolls for some key rolls. The
rolls were fair and equal on cohesion, but the Czech suffer more
of them and usually without the attacker modifier. The Germans
and flak managed to neutralize most of the strafing, so there
were only 6 bomb/strafe rolls in total. they were: 6,6,7, 10(but
broken by flak),10,3. The rolls were exactly average, but only
one bomb hit because the small arms flak scored a cohesion hit
on a fighter. The second 10 gave a 50% hit on the trucks,
however, for 8 points and the best bombing result of all my
games.
The other standout of the scenario was that both Bf109s ended up
alone with the last B71, but instead of the usual VP farming,
only one bomber was shot down for two fighters shot down by the
bomber, definitely above average luch for the Czech.
Score:
Czech: Bombing 8, 3 fighters: 11
German: 1 fighter, 1 bomber:3
Total: 8, Draw
Felt like: Smashing Czech success
Comment: I suppose with above average luck the Czech could have
scored even higher on bombing. The last bombing roll only needed
to be a 6 to score 4 more points for the Czech, for example. But
on the other hand, it took a heavy dose of luck to score even on
air to air combat, and the Germans should have scored at least 5
more points in the final combat rounds. I still feel that the
Czech should score a win on a low positive score.
With the score adjusted, I'm ready to sign this one off.
#Post#: 2837--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: pilotofficerprune Date: July 27, 2019, 12:55 am
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I don't quite get what you mean 'with the score adjusted'. Do
you mean the last set of changes to the scenario, or are you
suggesting it needs further change?
#Post#: 2838--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: Elias Nordling Date: July 27, 2019, 1:28 am
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I meant I feel the current scoring levels in 0.6 makes it very
difficult for the Czechs to win, but assuming you go through the
scores for the last couple of playthroughs and adjust, I feel
the scenario is done.
#Post#: 2839--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: pilotofficerprune Date: July 27, 2019, 2:18 am
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Cool. I shall check the data and see what comes up.
#Post#: 2842--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: pilotofficerprune Date: July 28, 2019, 4:42 am
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Okay, here’s the VP outputs for the last three plays:
CZECH
Bombing - 5 + 2 + 8 = mean 5.0
Victories - 0 + 2 + 3 = mean 1.7
GERMAN VICTORIES
Vs. Bombers - 10 + 6 + 2 = mean 6.0
Vs. Fighters - 2 + 0 + 1 = mean 1.0
This means the average output is -0.3
Given that the Germans tend to score more than the Czechs, I’m
tempted to reverse the score calculation and establish a draw
window at +1 to +3. That would make your last three plays a
German victory, draw and Czech victory, respectively.
#Post#: 2845--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: Elias Nordling Date: July 28, 2019, 8:54 am
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If you want to bring the two ganes before that into the
calculation they would have scored one more point each on
bombing under 0.6.
#Post#: 2847--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: pilotofficerprune Date: July 28, 2019, 10:42 am
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Adding those two games brings us to:
CZECH
Bombing - 5 + 2 + 8 + 3 + 4 = mean 4.4
Victories - 0 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 2 = mean 2.0
GERMAN VICTORIES
Vs. Bombers - 10 + 6 + 2 + 8 + 0 = mean 5.2
Vs. Fighters - 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 3 = mean 1.4
This gives us an average output of -0.2
I think the calculation flip and the new draw threshold in 0.7
would be a lot, lot closer.
#Post#: 2852--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: Elias Nordling Date: July 29, 2019, 12:19 am
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Agreed. But then the Czech will win by aborting, so you should
probably either put the czech win in the negative or introduce a
VP penalty for unbombed targets.
#Post#: 2856--------------------------------------------------
Re: O09 Slow Them at Any Cost!
By: pilotofficerprune Date: July 29, 2019, 3:37 am
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Hmmm, good point. I hate to have negative scores. Given that the
mean hovers around zero to +1 in the 'old' calculation, what
would happen if I reflip to the current method of calculation, i
wonder? That at least would force the Czechs to attack.
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