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#Post#: 1281--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: January 28, 2019, 3:24 am
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Okay, I just did some number-crunching, and I get the following:
Three G3Ms @ alt 6 (bomb load 12)
Without flak mods we get the following:
42% chance of 1 hit
16% chance of 3 hits
Mean hits without a flak modifier are 0.83 vs Airfield; 1.39 vs
Port
Mean hits with a flak modifier are 0.44 vs Airfield; 0.83 vs
Port
Two G4Ms @ alt 9 (bomb load 14)
Without flak mods we get the following:
42% chance of 1 hit
16% chance of 4 hits
Mean hits without a flak modifier are 1.00 vs Airfield; 1.67 vs
Port
Mean hits with a flak modifier are 0.53 vs Airfield; 1.00 vs
Port
So, assuming flak modifiers apply to half the attacks, we should
be scoring somewhere in the region of 1.7 hits on the airfield
and 2.7 hits on the Port, before any air combat action is taken
into account.
In short, on average the Japanese are probably going to score no
more than light damage on either target, for 2 VP total.
Fortunate hits might score 5 or 6 VP on one of the targets, but
the Japanese cannot rely on this, and it could make the scenario
very luck-dependant.
#Post#: 1284--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: January 28, 2019, 3:38 am
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Looking at the numbers above, I'm quite tempted to change the
bombing so that bombers automatically score 2 hits on their
targets if unbroken, and 0 hits if disrupted or broken. This
should make bombing less luck-dependent and change the emphasis
of the scenario on to trying to disrupt the bombers before their
bomb run.
#Post#: 1291--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: Kevin
Date: January 28, 2019, 6:49 am
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Thanks for crunching the numbers! I did something similar to
roughly estimate how much bombing damage to expect. Either
awarding 2 damage on a successful run or dropping the VC numbers
should help.
I’d say the only option for CAP flights is to jump on the
bombers early before the Zero’s show up.
I’m curious what the results were for the games the scenario
designer played? I’m never sure if poor results are down to me
being Green ;)
#Post#: 1294--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: January 28, 2019, 7:03 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Some of the scenarios haven't been tested before they come to
me. Some of them have been tested, while others may have had
counters pushed around a bit before submission. It varies.
So bear in mind that you may be the first person rolling dice in
anger. It may take a couple of plays before we have a thorough
view of a scenario and can push it into shape.
#Post#: 1379--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: February 2, 2019, 12:46 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Okay, for the next iteration of this scenario I am adding in the
de-lucked bombing to shift the scenario emphasis back to air
combat, and shifting the victory levels by 2 VP, so that the
draw window is +8 to +9.
#Post#: 2250--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: ScottKey
Date: April 3, 2019, 5:05 pm
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I’’ll be tackling this next. One note, in case it was missed
along the way, the scenario calls for 3x CW-21 flights but the
XL spreadsheet only lists 2. the countersheet has three (J,K, L)
Edit: no longer an issue
#Post#: 2277--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: April 7, 2019, 2:46 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Roger that. My spreadsheet says 3 x CW-21, so I think we're good
now.
#Post#: 2299--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: ScottKey
Date: April 12, 2019, 8:16 pm
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Scenario: Sourabaya Johnny— first play
Version: 0.2
Playtesters: Scott Key, solitaire
April 12, 2019
Report:
The Allies assigned their veterans to the Hawk squadron. The
Japanese assigned both veterans to bomber squadrons and the
experte to the top leading sweep squadron. There were no height
errors.
Turn 1: no tallies
Turn 2: Combat between the leading Nell sqn and a Cw-21 flight.
2 bombers are downed. Bombers are disrupted.
Turn 3: The first two squadrons of Nells bombed the airfield and
turned back towards the friendly board edge. There were two
combats: The first involving two CW-21 flights vs the disrupted
Nell sqn., one Nell becomes a stragglers. The second combat
involves the Hawk sqn vs the middle Nell sqn. 1 Hawk is downed
and a Nell straggles.
** Important Rules Mistake: At the end of Turn three I rolled
for GCI to give new vectors to the two CW-21 flights currently
engaged. Obviously this was not legal since they both had
tallies thus were not eligible for a new vector. This could have
made a significant difference because the 2 flights were able to
avoid tangling with the lower Zero sweeps however those sweeping
squadrons engaged the Hawk squadron so, though the ramifications
are many, the ultimate impact may have been small.
Turn 4: -direct flak is ineffective against the leading upper
sweep (which has tallied and is diving on the CE-21 flights).
-A large fight evolves between the Hawk squadron, both lower
Zero sweeps and the middle Nell squadron. 1 Nell straggles and 1
Zero is downed. One Zero squadron disrupts but the Japanese
succeed in starting a dogfight which saves the Nells from ever
being attacked again in this scenario. They all escape within
two turns.
-Barrage flak is placed in the path of the incoming Bettys and
remaining unengaged upper sweep
Turn 5: Two combats: The first is between a CW-21 flight and the
lead upper A6M2 sweep. The Dutch flight breaks. The second
combat is the dogfight between the Hawk sqn and 2 A6M2
squadrons. The experte Zero sqn breaks after inflicting 2 Hawk
stragglers (net 1 kill) and the Hawks disrupt.
Turn 6: -Barrage flak is ineffective against the leading Bettys.
-The P-40 flight finally reaches it’s vector but does not tally
the A6M2 sqn which is circling adjacent to it. That sqn has
chosen not to dive in pursuit of the broken CW-21 flight.
-The dogfight peters out with both squadrons breaking after 2
A6M2s are downed.
Turn 7:-Barrage flak is again ineffective.
-The P-40s tally the Betty sqn above them , however they are
bounced by the neatby Zero sqn. No aircraft are downed but the
P-40s break and the Zeros disrupt.
-A CW-21 flight dives to attack the leading Betty squadron but
is followed by the remaining A6M2 high sweep. 1 Zero is downed,
and the A6M2s disrupt. The Japanese start a dogfight.
Turn 8: Direct fire barrage against the bombers has no effect.
-For the next several turns the final A6M2 sweep flies along not
making tallies due to repeated rolls of 1.
-The dogfight resolves with the Zeros breaking after losing a
plane .
Turn 9: Direct fire flak inflicts a -1 bombing penalty which os
meaningless here.
- A CW-21 attacks the leading Bettys. No effect.
Turn 10: Each remaining CW-21 flight attacks a bomber. A total
of 3 bombers and 5 Interceptors are downed. One Interceptor
flight breaks.
Turn 11: the zeros still do not tally and thus a final attack is
made on the trailing. Etty sqn by the remaining CW-21 flight.
One Interceptor is lost and the Dutch flight breaks.
Victory: Allies
Allies: x5 Zeros killed for -5 vp; x6 bombers killed for -12 vp:
-17vp
IJNAF: x8 allied fighters killed for +8 vp; Minor Damage to
airfield for +5 vp; Minor Damage to Port for+6 vp: +19 vp
Total: +2 VP
Recommendations: Really great scenario. Lots of tension could
play out several ways.
-In this particular game good cohesion rolls by the allies made
a significant difference by keeping CW-21 flights in the game
long after most of them normally would have broken.
-I can’t see how bombing could have really gone any better and a
strategy of on,y bombing the airfield seems to give up as many
points as gained. It’s possible that by only bombing the
airfield that enough of the bomber losses could be avoided to
offset the penalty for not bombing the Port. There is, however
no way to get more than 10 vp from the airfield meaning a net 7
from targets after taking the penalty for not bombing the Port.
Might have to try this out but I think the realistic best case
scenario only gives the Japanese a draw.
-I think that my rules error might possibly credit the Japanese
for up to two bombers that might not have been downed as a
result. This is a generous estimate and gives the Japanese a +6
loss.
#Post#: 2300--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: April 13, 2019, 2:13 am
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Okay, I have enough feedback now to start adjusting this one.
- I’m concerned that the incentive for bombing both targets is
so slim. This may be a problem with the magnitude of the penalty
for not hitting a target, or the distance between targets.
- I’m also concerned that the Bettys aren’t being tackled.
So with this in mind I’d like to make the following changes:
(1) Drop the Bettys by an altitude level.
(2) Move the Port two spaces right.
(3) Rejig the cloud to compensate for set-up changes.
#Post#: 2305--------------------------------------------------
Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
DIR By: ScottKey
Date: April 13, 2019, 10:35 am
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--- Quote ---
> I’m also concerned that the Bettys aren’t being tackled
--- End Quote ---
Just to be clear: Bomber casualties were 3x G3M2/ 3x G4m1.
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