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       #Post#: 978--------------------------------------------------
       O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 19, 2019, 4:31 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       New scenario thread for playtest of Sourabaya Johnny. Please do
       not create a new thread for this scenario.
       #Post#: 1146--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: Kevin Date: January 23, 2019, 3:01 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       This one has caught my eye for the next play test. Quick
       question:  should the ace Saburo Sakai be assigned to a Zero
       squadron as a Special rule?  It's a no brainer since there are
       lots of bombers to attack the port....unlike trying to put a tin
       fish into the hull of the Enterprise with a single elite torpedo
       squadron!
       Also, there is no special rule #2;  it skips from 1 to 3.
       #Post#: 1147--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 23, 2019, 3:18 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       As a rule, Experten can only be assigned to fighter squadrons.
       We have allowed them in bomber squadrons but only as a special
       rule, which doesn't apply here.
       Good catch on the special rule numbering. I'll fix that with the
       next release.
       #Post#: 1217--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: Kevin Date: January 26, 2019, 9:36 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Play test in progress.  Fun one!  One small thought is the
       allies can reduce the chances of a long range tally from the
       Zero squadron in W6 by having one CAP flight pointing left to
       avoid the +2 formation bonus drm.  In my game the veteran and
       Experte have been assigned to W6 and V9. On the Allied side the
       temptation was to assign the veteran to the P40 flight but I
       fancy the Hawk's chances wth 1 firepower and the only full
       squadron.
       Just to confirm, there should be two flak at the port but none
       at the airfield?  This is fine, if so. I've got the Nells going
       after the airfield and the Betty's going to the port.  Being a
       higher altitude this seemed the way to go with targeting.  Does
       the bombing player have to designate targets at scenario start
       in WL in general?
       #Post#: 1227--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 26, 2019, 12:59 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=Kevin link=topic=78.msg1217#msg1217
       date=1548516994]Just to confirm, there should be two flak at the
       port but none at the airfield?[/quote]
       Correct.
       [quote author=Kevin link=topic=78.msg1217#msg1217
       date=1548516994]Does the bombing player have to designate
       targets at scenario start in WL in general?[/quote]
       As a rule, no.
       #Post#: 1253--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: Kevin Date: January 27, 2019, 8:22 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       Version: v0.1
       Playtesters: Solo
       Report: Nice scenario with some pockets of clouds which can
       channel this into two different fights.  It effectively
       demonstrates the intense climbing ability of the CW-21B "Demon"
       which is what happened in this game.  Decent tallies by the
       Dutch on T1 allowed a flight to ascend 2 levels and attack the
       leading Nells.  Basically, the 3 Nells went after the airfield
       while the Bettys took on the Port.  Lots of Dutch fighters shot
       down but in the end the Japanese couldn't score more than
       incidental damage with bombs.  The attack on the port was a
       failure with zero damage, so that's a 4 VP differential right
       there, if they had been able to score just one damage point.
       Victory:
       Japanese bombing 1 VP (two hits on airfield) + enemies shot down
       11 VPs = 12VPs
       Allied enemies shot down 3 VP fighters + 6 VP bombers + 3 bonus
       VPs for no damage to port = 12VPs
       Total: 0 VP's.
       Luck:  lots of 1's rolled in A2A combat for both sides.  It
       didn't seem to loaded to one side, though the Experte+Vet Zero
       broke in his first clash.  And poor results over the Port didn't
       help.
       Recommendations: this needs a second game, but I really doubt
       how much damage the bombers can do due to the negative modifiers
       of the Type V bombsights.  This result felt a little closer to a
       draw than it does on paper because the Allies lost so many
       planes.  However, I'll play again with current spread of Victory
       conditions.  I would think the Japanese could rack up another
       6VP's in a repeat engagement.  Perhaps smashing that airfield is
       the answer.
       #Post#: 1255--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 27, 2019, 10:02 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Great AAR, Kevin. It looks to me as if the scenario is
       imbalanced because it assumes more bombing damage is done than
       in practice.
       Something we’ve increasingly been doing with other scenarios
       that feature medium bomber attacks is to, rather than roll for
       bombing, assign bomb hits based on whether the squadrons are
       unbroken/disrupted/broken. The advantage of this is that it can
       ‘de-luck’ the scenario, making it more predictable, and get the
       fighters to focus on disrupting one or more bomber squadrons to
       put the Raider player behind the curve on VPs.
       Given the low odds of scoring hits, do you think the scenario
       needs something like this?
       #Post#: 1261--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: Kevin Date: January 27, 2019, 12:30 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       Version: v0.1
       Playtesters: Solo
       Report: Upgraded to excellent scenario!  Second attempt was a
       Japanese blow-out though the Victory conditions are not
       reflecting it.  I played the Zero's much better this time by
       tying up the CAP units in deadly dogfights they cannot win.
       Once caught the Zeros pursued them until they neared the light
       flak protection of the airfield at which point I aborted the
       pursuits.  I played the P-40 in a pursuit of the remaining Nells
       at altitude 6.  In the last turn at Z6, they downed 2 bombers!
       This seemed better than trying to climb up to the Bettys and
       dealing with the Zero Sweeps.
       Victory:
       Japanese bombing 11 VP (7 hits on airfield; 3 hits on the port)
       + enemies shot down 7 VPs = 18VPs
       Allied enemies shot down 2 VP fighters + 6 VP bombers  = 8VPs
       Total: 10 VP's which the conditions call a draw?!!!  I dunno.
       Maybe the two Nells downed in Z6 by the P-40 Warhawks make it a
       draw?
       Felt like:  absolutely this level of luck and results should be
       a Japanese victory.  I think 10 points of damage in bombing is
       just about the best you're gonna get out of this as Japan.
       Luck:  fairly even A2A rolls but the Z Nell squadron scored 6
       hits with boxcars on the airfield!  The CAP flight in K5 was not
       successfully vectored by GCI until late and then it just got
       engaged in a horrid dogfight.
       Recommendations: of course I'd like to see a third playing plus
       what other players are doing.  The conditions seem a bit high
       against the Japanese as they are much more likely on average to
       score less damage with bombing.
       #Post#: 1262--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: Kevin Date: January 27, 2019, 12:32 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=Lee Brimmicombe-Wood link=topic=78.msg1255#msg1255
       date=1548604950]
       Something we’ve increasingly been doing with other scenarios
       that feature medium bomber attacks is to, rather than roll for
       bombing, assign bomb hits based on whether the squadrons are
       unbroken/disrupted/broken. The advantage of this is that it can
       ‘de-luck’ the scenario, making it more predictable, and get the
       fighters to focus on disrupting one or more bomber squadrons to
       put the Raider player behind the curve on VPs.
       Given the low odds of scoring hits, do you think the scenario
       needs something like this?
       [/quote]
       Hi Lee, I think the bombing mission is kept tense by the need to
       get some fairly decent dice in there at some point.  Perhaps
       just a drop of those harsh conditions will do the trick.
       Personally, I like the drama of bombing rather than just getting
       a points award.  That could just be me though :)
       #Post#: 1266--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O14 Sourabaya Johnny
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 27, 2019, 3:52 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       When I get a moment in the week I'll crunch the probabilities on
       the Japanese bombing. If they lean heavily against the Japanese
       I may have to 'de-luck' the bombing on this one. We shouldn't
       need to rely on a boxcars bombing roll to win.
       I agree that the VP thresholds don't look right at the moment,
       but another run might give me the data I need to rebalance.
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