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#Post#: 3152--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Gordon Christie
Date: September 20, 2019, 6:17 am
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Andrew & I (Republican) have now had a go at this in its 15th
Sept iteration. We have some concerns about the setup & a
potential change to fix it-discussed below.
First point is to clarify that radio less wings are bound by the
9.5.5 rules & can only attempt one tally per turn with the
option of ordering the remaining squadrons on to a tallied
squadron or another squadron in formation with the tallied
squadron. With 3 radio less wings in play here it is central to
what happens. We played that individual squadrons within the
wing cannot just ignore the wing & tally away which feels like
the sense of the rules but a note to reinforce this might be
helpful if there is space.
As the Republicans this time out I eschewed a tally attempt on
the bombers & went for the Fiat group in formation instead,
tallying with both Republican wings. The Fiat group failed to
tally allowing me to get the I-16s above them for a bounce on
GT2 (failed tally again by the Fiats) whilst the I-15s reversed
course & climbed to put them level with the low Cr 32s. The Blue
patrol had tallied the back marker I-15 anticipating an attack
on the fiat group & was wrong footed by this, failing to get
into an attacking position on GT1.
GT2 saw the I-16s attack at +3/+1 DRM for both & essentially
whiff it with only 1 kill. The Fiats climbed back into the fight
gaining attacker advantage on GT3 whilst the I-15s reversed
course again & fed back into the fight from above on GT4 & 5.
The Blue patrol attacked an I-15 squadron in a Lufbery, lost 2
aircraft (DR11) & broke. Final score was 7 Nationalist fighters
(Rep 7 VP) vs 4 Republican & 2 bombing hits for 1 VP (Nat 5
VP). Final score -2 for a Republican victory (which it felt
like). Dice favoured the Nationalists so median outcome would
have been worse. the combat against the Blue patrol was the only
Republican combat DR above 6 IIRC
Central to this scenario, as with all of the scenarios with
rigid doctrine & radio less aircraft is attacker advantage,
especially where the aircraft (Cr 32s & I-15s) are evenly
matched or where performance differences make attacking
particularly advantageous (I-16 vs Cr 32 is +2 to I-16s with
speed -1 with turning so who is attacking really matters). All
other things being remotely equal the win will go to the side
which manages to attack more often.
The other issue in my mind is the historical narrative. The
setup needs to be scripted a bit to give the desired outcome &
at the moment I don't see the incentives for this. Going down
after the bombers is a 50:50 tally for the Republicans at strat
& if they have already been tallied by the Fiat group it is
probably a bad idea to even try when they have just as much
chance of tallying the Fiats & trying to get above (especially
the I-16s).
We tried a second start with the Republicans going for the
bombers, failing both times on GT1 & the Nationalists tallying
the I-15s. the Blue patrol climbed fro position rather than
engage on GT1 The CAP fighters circled to avoid contact on GT1 &
on GT2 the Republicans faced the prospect of being below a cloud
of Nationalist fighters with the bombers on the way home after
scoring 1 bombing VP. At that point I decided that Elias tactic
of voluntarily breaking & RTB before I was on the receiving end
of the fighter attacks was sensible & conceded a draw against
the likelihood of something a lot worse if I hung around. Even
with optimal results on GT1 for the Nationalists they will
struggle to force combat they can win. Committing the blue
patrol on GT1 forces a combat but the Republicans can still
break & run away before the rest of the nationalist fighters get
there so the blue patrol have to kill at least 3 more than they
lose (assuming 1 bombing VP) to win
Suggested changes (we'll try on Sunday):
Ju52s as a squadron-they then can't glide bomb & their behaviour
becomes more predictable.
I-16s as a wing in R7, S7
I-15s IN R5,S5, T5
Ro 37s in M3
Republicans as intercept not CAP (they have to vector leftwards
to have any chance of catching the bombers)-if they choose not
to use the auto tally below, nor tally on GT1 & head left they
end up close to the Rep fighters on GT2 &-likely- a melee
ensues.
Each Republican wing can start with a tally on a bomber. This
should force at least couple of Rep squadrons down after the
bombers on GT1.The bombers will end up in O4 & O3 after bombing
so the lead units of both wings can reach them & attack with
advantage if the Blue patrol don't react (..and there is only 1
Blue patrol). Blue patrol can react even to head ons, possibly
+1 to react (they are veterans so base reaction likelihood is 6+
which is probably good enough but if the intent was really to
script it this might help). The Republican wings need a 6 to
tally any non bomber (Blue or Fiat) with this setup so it seems
to force the Reps to go for the bombers in a way that will
probably result in the Blue patrol reacting effectively &
catching the rep fighters at a disadvantage. The Fiat group
(alerted) similarly need an unlikely 6 (5-6 if veteran in the
right slot) to tally the low I-15s allowing them to support the
bombers (or not...rigid fighters or unloaded bombers will look
pretty similar on the CRT) if they tally.
Fiat group not as wing-this allows multiple individual tally
attempts & will probably result in squadrons peeling out in
keeping with the historical narrative.
Emphasise that flights are NOT rigid in the setup (makes the
veteran Italian flights more useful, especially defensively
supporting the bombers) -"All fighter squadrons (NOT flights)
use rigid doctrine"
The Blue patrol automatic tally line can be dropped & replaced
by auto bombers tallies for the 2 Rep wings. I think this should
all still fit on the page.
Ia anticipate the end of GT1 seeing the Blue patrol taking on
I-16s in P5 or O5 after successful reaction (or if late
supporting the Ju52s in O4); the lead I-15s engaging the Ro 37s
in O3; possibly supported by a Cr 32 unit if the tally roll is
good. The trailer I-16 probably uses its tally on the bomber to
climb to Q8 & the trailing I-15s probably end up in Q6 & R6 with
the Fiats in M7, N7, M6 & N6 unless any have used to tallied to
either climb or support the bombers. The Nat's will probably get
1 VP from bombing barring incredibly good (or bad) luck.
At the start of GT2 no one is in a wing, the historical script
has largely been followed & it should be all to play for with
the Nationalists having a modest positional advantage but plenty
of decisions for both sides IF we have this right...
We'll give it a try on Sunday & report back.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 3153--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: September 20, 2019, 7:46 am
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Roger that. I look forward.
#Post#: 3169--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: September 22, 2019, 3:57 am
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I'm going to hold off on any changes for this scenario until
Gordon and Andrew have reported back with their recommendations.
#Post#: 3185--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Kevin
Date: September 22, 2019, 3:23 pm
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Scenario: O17
Version: v0.6 (latest from Dropbox with the Blue Patrol as
Escort)
Playtesters: solo
Well, I wanted to see a Nationalist win of this scenario but
I've just played out a pretty dramatic game that saw the
Republicans win with a -1 but this felt very much game on. The
Republicans didn't do well against anyone other than a sizzling
tangle with Blue patrol that ended in them being destroyed
entirely for the 3 bonus VP. Bombing was a terrible show,
though the Ju52 scored a 10% hit. However, 10% of 4.5 is .45
and that was rounded down to 0. The other bombers missed
entirely. Just one hit would have put the game in draw
territory.
Victory: bombing Nat kills Rep kills
VP
Game 1: 0 VP 3 3 (KIA Blue Patrol for
3 more) -1
The current version .6 has the Republicans down as CAP and I'd
still like to see them start with the flexibility as Intercept.
A crafty player could do a lot with this which could take the
scenario off script and into creative territory.
I like this scenario but it sure isn't easy to get right. Is it
because in other scenarios we normally see Sweeps going ahead of
bombers and the justification of everyone hanging in there to
give battle is built in? With Sweeps behind the raiding
bombers, it's really hard to get it right. If this still
presents a problem, then maybe the I-16's should start further
away. Tough one.
#Post#: 3213--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Gordon Christie
Date: September 25, 2019, 2:48 pm
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2 more runs at this with modified setup (as previous post).
Overall I think we're getting there in terms of the historical
sequence of events whilst preserving player decision making but
I think the historical outcome must have been something of an
outlier given the forces engaged (8:1 Nationalist kill ratio) &
I don't see anything similar being achieved barring some truly
outlandish DRs.
First time out the dice favoured the Republicans. Blue patrol
reacted successfully against the I-16s... then blew their combat
roll & lost 2 aircraft & a straggler to return fire (DR 12!).
The victorious I-16s then broke (Dr 2...) & Mourato wisely
decided not to chance further engagement as a single aircraft
flight after surviving cohesion. The Ro 37s lost 3 aircraft at
the hands of the I-15s as the Fiat group (wing) struggled with
its single tally opportunity. This also let the Republican
fighters, now no longer in wings after the 2 lead squadrons went
down after the bombers take the Fiat group on with advantage.
Final outcome:
Republicans 4 fighter, 3 bomber kills (all Ro 37s)---> +7 VP
Nationalists 2 fighter kills, 2 bomb hits (1 VP)----> +3
Final outcome -4 for solid Republican victory-which it felt
like, even allowing for some left leaning dice.
We felt the Fiat group were unduly restricted as a wing &
allowed them to function as independent units in the second run.
This time the Blue patrol reacted late (DR 2...) but still
managed to hold off the I-16s attacking the Ju 52s. Neither
veteran in the Fiat group rolled a 5 or 6 on the initial tally
to assist the Ro 37s who lost 3 aircraft & one of the remaining
I-15s got in amongst the Ju52s after the Blue patrol broke on
GT2 whilst the Fiat group missed a couple of tallies on the
I-15s going after the Ju 52s & became embroiled in a complex
fight with the remaining Republican fighters which limited their
ability to support the embattled bombers (now behind & below
them so difficult to tally the Red fighters).
Final outcome
Republicans 3 Ju 52 3 Ro 37 2 cr 32---> +11
Nationalists 7 fighters 1 bomb hit (1 VP)---> +8
Again Republican -3 but felt better.
The new setup is better & more naturally generates the
historical narrative without scripting the scenario too much.
The bombers were unlucky here as the Blue patrol should make
their reaction (DR6 + at range one with veterans) & neither Fiat
group Cr 32 squadron got a GT1 tally (5 or 6 enquired) on the
I-15s going after the Ro 37s. it is difficult for the Fiat group
to support the bombers after they bomb & turn for home so
perhaps it might be better to move the target 2 columns R which
keeps the bombers in support range of the Fiat group a little
longer (also fits the historical narrative that they weren't
meant to cross the line a little better but this is chrome). The
bombers are still very likely to score the expected 1-2 hits to
get a bombing VP unless cohesion goes *very* badly & the Blue
patrol reaction fails. Scoring the 4 hits needed for extra VP
on the bunker is pretty unlikely (& even 4 hits is only 2.5 VP).
I think 1 VP is very much the median bombing result.
Next iteration (likely Friday):
Bombers moved up to altitude 5 (Ju 52s) & 4 (Ro 37)- No effect
on bombing DRs & keeps them at same tally range when...
Fiat group moved up to alt 7 & 8 (Cr 32s have a relative
performance advantage at alt 8 which the Italians can leverage
if they're careful)
1 Green marker for the Republicans (we can script the start to
get the right sequence of events but the historical outcome
feels very implausible given the size & relative quality of the
fighter forces involved- a gentle shift away from the
republicans probably isn't unreasonable)
The Fiat group shouldn't be a wing (constrains tally options too
much).
Bunker to Q0
Republicans are intercept not CAP (forces-or at least
encourages- them to close for the fighter merge)
Overall I'm hopeful this will give a reasonable sequence of
events. I think the Nationalists will struggle to come close to
the historical exchange rate & AtA VPs will modestly favour the
Republicans (the Ju 52s are very vulnerable if they get caught).
Is it reasonable to say the Nationalists had the better of
things and claimed 8 kills for one loss? The way the aftermath
is described at present the Nationalist player is going to doubt
the scenario as history as this is a very unlikely outcome in
play, even with the Rep quality reduced and couching it in terms
of claims not kills feels a better narrative, at least to me.
In VP terms I'm not quite sure. AtA we're generating a pretty
consistent Republican VP advantage of +4 somewhat offset by the
1 VP for bombing. Perhaps subtract Nationalist from Republican
VPs? Draw window 0-3 rep win +4 or more & Nationalist -1 or
better. That way the Republicans will lose if they run away
(Nationalists +1 bombing VP). If the Nationalists run away they
will at best draw.
We'll give it another go at the weekend & see where we stand.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 3214--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Kevin
Date: September 26, 2019, 6:43 am
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Gordon, did your Fiats try to tally I15’s or 16s? I was
choosing the former as the odds of tallying them in a formation
gives the +2. Thus they tally on a 3 - 6. Also, I was only
rolling one tally for the wing without radios but taking
advantage of the rule which allows them to tally different I15s
of the formation to get full coverage. If the I15s go for the
bombers then there is a chance the leading fiats will engage
them on turn one with a four square move due to diving.
Hope I’m playing this correctly!
#Post#: 3261--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Gordon Christie
Date: September 29, 2019, 5:07 am
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Kevin,
Our revised setup should have the Fiat group starting 6 squares
away from the I-15s. With veterans in the lead Cr 32s and
formation bonus that should (I think!) give a tally on a 5 or a
6. I suspect I haven't been clear enough about the exact setup
if you're getting a tally on 3-6. We've also gone for the Fiat
group not as a wing which gives them more tally attempts & makes
them more flexible in a situation where the Republican wings
are likely to break up on GT1 as the leaders attack the bombers
& the Cr 32s find themselves with a lot of potential targets,
few of which are in formation.
Final thoughts about the scenario follow shortly in a separate
post to avoid confusion.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 3262--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Gordon Christie
Date: September 29, 2019, 5:41 am
---------------------------------------------------------
After a fifth run at this Andrew and I have reached a point
where we're basically happy with it.
Using the modified setup above GT1 saw the Blue patrol
successfully react against the lead I-16 squadron attacking the
Ju 52s, both sides losing 1 aircraft but the I-16s breaking.
The trailing I-16 squadron using the wing tally capability
pressed on to deliver an effective head on attack on the Ju 52s
on GT1, shooting down 2. The Blue patrol intervened on GT2
preventing further bomber losses & killing another I-16 before
both sides broke.
The lead I-15s were tallied by a Cr 32 squadron which
intervened in the GT1 attack on the Ro37s. A dogfight ensued on
GT2 resulting in mutual breaking on GT3. The second I-15
squadron held tally on the Ro37s on GT1 & attacked on GT2. The
Cr 32s failed their GT2 tally & could not prevent 2 Ro37 losses
on but managed to retain cohesion after the I-15s broke,
subsequently pursuing them to the map edge & shooting down all 8
I-15s for no loss.
The third I-15 squadron was tallied on GT2 & went into a
Lufbery, reasoning that engaging the bombers would simply drag
the Italian fighters down into the fight. Combat with a Cr32
squadron was inconclusive, ending in mutual break.
Final outcome:
Nationalist: 4 bombers (2 Ju 52) & 4 fighters lost; 1 bombing
hit (1VP)
Republican: 13 fighters lost
VP Rep +10 Nat +14 Felt like Nationalist win though the dice
certainly went their way.
Final suggested setup modifications:
Blue patrol in L6
Bombers in L4 (Ju52) & L3 Ju52s are squadron strength
(hopelessly vulnerable as flight)
Fiat group in I6,I7,J6,J7
I-16s Q6, R6
I-15s Q4,R4,S4
Target moves to P0.
This should ensure that bombing takes place on GT2 keeping the
bombers ahead of the Fiat group long enough to make tallies &
engagement near certain. Moving everyone down keeps the bombers
(T bombsights) at alt 4 for bombing & preserves the height
advantage for the Nationalist fighters.
SSRs:
+1 cohesion for Blue patrol
Blue patrol can react to head on attacks on bombers
Both Republican wings can start with tally on bombers
Quality: 1 Green Republican
Balance & narrative:
The historical outcome is very unlikely. This setup produces the
historical narrative & preserves a reasonable amount of decision
making for players but won't give the historical outcome barring
really wild dice. The Republicans will get into amongst the
(vulnerable) Nationalist bombers & do some damage & that makes
the historical outcome very hard to achieve unless things are
weighted so hard against the Republicans that they will be no
fun to play (e.g. several more Green units). As suggested above
I would tweak the aftermath to leave the true outcome a little
less clear (Andrew has got hold of a book on the SCW air war
which sounds like it was a source for this scenario from the
similarities with the scenario description & it sounds like 8
Nationalist claims against 5 or so definite republican losses).
VPs
I think losses will be pretty similar, perhaps slightly
favouring the Republicans (more robust aircraft) but Nationalist
bomber losses will make the VP totals favour the Republicans air
to air. 1 bombing VP seems near certain (1 hit for each unbroken
squadron bombing would be a way to control this variable even
more although this is actually a notably unswingy bombing
scenario).
I would go for subtract Nationalist from Republican VPs then:
0 or less Nationalist victory
+1 to +3 Draw
+4 or more Republican victory.
I'd be happy to sign off on this. I think it works, both sides
have options & decisions & the historical narrative is
preserved. Outcome will differ a bit from history (which may in
a sense have been an outlier) but I don't think much can be done
about this as encounters between notionally relatively equal
forces resulting in 5:1 kill ratios (never mind 8:1) are, by
definition, outliers.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 3263--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Elias Nordling
Date: September 29, 2019, 6:23 am
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Just a final suggestion, how about adding the determined
cohesion bonus to the nationalists to give them som edge and a
chance tonoutnumber the Republican fighters near the end?
#Post#: 3264--------------------------------------------------
Re: O17 Where the Laureate Crosses Grow
DIR By: Kevin
Date: September 29, 2019, 6:50 am
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Thanks Gordon for those clarifications. I think I was playing a
different setup to you! Once we get a newer version number out
I’ll be happy to give this another shot. Q: If the Fiats are not
in wing is it a case that they simply start with an experte who
is not WL?
I’m pleased some of my suggestions might be working out ::)
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