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       #Post#: 2309--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: Rick McKown
       Date: April 15, 2019, 12:39 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: O23 Operation Sunrise
       Version: v0.4
       Playtesters: Solo
       Report:
       My first attempt at this scenario.  I used the Spitfires to
       tally the Germans, used Tac Flex ability to split the Veteran
       squadron with the Experte (didn't split the other two squadrons
       as they were already weak due to Drop Tanks & Fuel Limits),
       intending to follow the Germans in when they went for the
       bombers and to try to tie them up in dogfights (in spite of the
       Drop Tanks negating the Spitfires usual advantage in turning
       fights).  In these combats the Germans lost five aircraft, the
       Brits four fighters (both sides were rolling rather poorly). The
       Hampdens took only one loss (to flak) and scored 6 VPs for their
       bombing. The Wellingtons lost three in total, two to the German
       fighters on their tail and one to flak (actually two Stragglers
       converting to a Loss). The tail-end Wellington squadron broke in
       combat the turn before it would have encountered the flak, so it
       jettisoned its bombs and turned around to RTB; the trailing
       German squadron, Veteran with an Experte and still unhurt,
       decided to harvest some more easy VPs from the broken bombers
       rather than enter the flak after the next in line, but the dice
       betrayed them - they inflicted no more damage on the broken
       bombers and themselves rolled snake-eyes on their cohesion!  The
       other three Wellington squadrons suffered one Loss and two
       Stragglers (separate squadrons) to the flak, with one squadron
       disrupted the turn it dropped its bombs and a second squadron
       the turn after it had bombed, so the Wellingtons chalked up 7
       VPs for their bombing.  The flak was rolling very much
       "mid-range" (mostly 6-8) so impact was not severe.
       Victory:
       British side: 13 VPs for bombing + 5 VPs for Germans fighters =
       18 VPs
       German side: 4 VPs for British fighters + 8 VPs for British
       bombers = 12 VPs
       Total: 12 - 18 = -6 VPs for a very solid British win
       The British were rather lucky - the generally dismal air combat
       rolls (below average) on both sides favoured their survival -
       the Spitfires lasted much longer than I had expected, although
       by the end of Turn 7 all the Spitfires had broken and headed
       home, while the two average German squadrons were still on the
       map (although each had 1 Loss, was Disrupted, and had Ammo
       Depletion - i.e., on their last legs and neither accomplished
       anything in the last three turns before the final shot was
       fired).  Not sure that having Tac Flex really added a lot to the
       British side but having two Veteran flights was probably worth
       it - the Spitfires basically have the deck stacked against them
       with the Drop Tanks, Fuel Limits, and facing mostly Bf 109F2s
       with Edge and with average die rolls in air combat the outcome
       of the scenario would likely have been closer to the earlier
       reports.
       Recommendations:
       Given the situation I decided to have the broken Wellington
       squadron RTB; per SSR #3 there is no incentive to keep them
       going into the flak - they earn the British player no VPs for
       bombing and each loss earns 2 VPs for the Germans.  Not sure how
       historical that would be.  The thought did occur to me that I
       would have acted differently if the VP awards were, say, 4 VPs
       for bombing, reduced to 2 VPs if Disrupted, 1 VP if Broken,
       since every VP might count.  The extra bombing VPs would have
       been gravy in my game, but in those earlier games they might
       have helped balance the game.
       I felt that the "close-in" starting positions, which made
       tallies very likely on Turn 1 (two Spitfire squadrons and the Bf
       109E flight all tallied on Turn 1 of my game, allowing the
       Veteran Spitfire squadron to split), didn't give as much
       opportunity for the attacker to jockey for position.  Personally
       I'd like to move everything "back" by one turn (adding another
       five squares separation), although I suspect that would be more
       to the advantage of the German player since the German planes
       would have the flex to grab some more altitude before the scrap
       starts.
       Anyway, will take another crack at this after we get back from
       our holidays at the end of May (don't think I'll have a chance
       before we leave on Thursday).
       Ciao,
       Rick
       #Post#: 2311--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: April 17, 2019, 3:21 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Okay, let's do a quick VP breakdown based on the plays so far:
       Bombing VPs: 13 + 13 + 13 = 13 mean value
       British air combat victories (VPs): 3 + 12 + 5 = 6.7 mean value
       German air combat victories (VPs): 32 + 40 + 12 = 28 mean value
       This means that the mean VP outputs so far are:
       British: 19.7 VPs
       German: 28 VPs
       This gives us a net 8 VPs, which is very much the British
       Victory column. It suggests that to get German victories we need
       to drop the draw window, possibly to +7 to +10.
       #Post#: 2490--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: May 22, 2019, 3:53 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I played Operation Sunrise today and it was a bomber massacre! A
       quick double check and it seems I didn’t do anything
       terribly wrong but before I post a full report does this seem
       possible:
       RAF: -3 vp for 109s killed, -11 for bombing: -14 vp
       LuftWaffe= +4 for Spits killed, +26 for bombers killed: +30 vp
       Net: +16 Luftwaffe victory
       (Edit: Ok I reversed the victory conditions so ignore the above,
       posting this anyway)
       #Post#: 2491--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: May 22, 2019, 3:55 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       So obviously this seems to be within the realm of possibilty,
       there were LOTS of 12s rolled so take it with a grain of salt.
       Real report to follow
       SK
       #Post#: 2493--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: May 22, 2019, 7:46 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: Operation Sunrise- First play
       Version: 0.6
       Playtesters: Scott Key, solitaire
       May 22, 2019
       Report: RAF veteran/experte assigned to leading escort which
       flies close escort for the lead Hampdens. The other two Spitfire
       squadrons follow at K10 and I10 (green). One veteran counter and
       experte counter assigned to the turn 2 Me-109 reinforcement. The
       German strategy here is to build up a big tally of downed
       bombers and not worry too much about preventing bombing.
       Turn 1:-109 experte flight bounces leading Hampdens, late
       reaction by escorts. 1 Spitfire is downed. RAF fail to start a
       dogfight.
       Turn 2: -The fight around the lead Hampdens continues, 1 bomber
       is lost.
       - A Me-109 sqn swoops in from under and behind and attacks the
       trailing Hampden sqn. Spitfires late react. 1 109 is downed and
       another straggles.
       - The experte flight and RAF experte sqn start a dogfight.
       - Barrage fire is placed.
       Turn 3: - RAF move the dogfight down and to the left
       - Barrage fire inflicts one straggler on the leading Hampdens.
       - Dogfight results in two Spitfires downed. Both sides break and
       escape.
       - The fight around the trailing Hampdens leavs the 109s
       disrupted and the Spitfires broken (they are allowed to escape).
       - The middle Luftwaffe interceptor squadron, which has been
       circling, ignoring the Hampdens, is vectored just above the the
       path of the Wellingtons
       Turn 4: - Barrage flak causes a net loss against the leading
       Hampden sqn.
       - bombing inflicts -3 vp
       - The reinforcing 109s attack the trailing Wellingtons downing
       two.
       - The vectored interceptor sqn attacks the lead Wellingtons but
       is late reacted by  green escorts. No losses.
       - The 109 previously attacking the Hampdens flies above the flak
       for this turn.
       - The green escorts manage to draw the 109 interceptors into a
       dogfight.
       Turn 5:- The dogfight is again moved by the RAF, down and to the
       left.
       - Barrage flak: downs one Hampden from the trailing Sqn. The
       interceptors are unaffected.
       - Bombing inflicts -1 vp
       - The leading Hampdens are bounced by the last fresh Friedrich
       sqn. 1 109 is downed.
       - The trailing Hampdens are again attacked by their pursuers
       both squadrons break.
       - The trailing Wellingtons lose a plane
       - The dogfight results in a downed Spitfire and a disrupted 109
       sqn.
       Turn 6: - the Brits move the dogfight down and to the left,
       again. The Wellingtons leave them behind.
       - Direct flak attacks the leading Wellingtons causing a passed
       Cohesion check.
       - The reinforcement interceptor sqn changes his tally to the
       trailing/middle Wellington sqn and downs a bomber.
       - The dogfight ends with one downed 109 and both squadrons
       breaking and escaping. All the RAF fighters are now gone.
       - Nearing (but still a move and a half away from) the right edge
       of the board the lead Hampdens lose another plane to their
       attackers.
       Turn 7: - Direct flak inflicts a straggler on the leading middle
       Wellington sqn
       - The leading Hampdens take their last (ineffective) attacks
       from the 109s before the interceptors break.
       - The Wellingtons take 2 more losses from the 109 reinforcement
       sqn who breaks and exits
       Turn 8: -direct flak inflicts a loss on the leading Wellington
       sqn and  a straggler (for a net loss) on the second Wellington
       sqn.
       - Bombing inflicts -6 vp
       Turn 9: -Direct flak inflicts a loss on the already ragged third
       Wellington sqn causing it disrupt. The last sqn fails a flak
       induced cohesion roll and breaks.
       - Bombing inflicts -1 vp
       Victory: Luftwaffe
       RAF: -3 vp from fighters killed, -11 vp from bombing: -14 vp
       Luftwaffe: +4 vp from Spitfires downed, +26 vp from Bombers
       downed (6 from Hampdens/20 from Wellingtons): +30 vp
       Total: +16 vp
       Recommendations:
       - Overall this is an exciting mid-war scenario that is
       startling in it’s brutality. I am tempted to say it’s good
       enough as is.
       - I should probably play this again with the RAF splitting at
       least two of their squadrons and the Luftwaffe doing the same.
       - If anything I might tone down the Luftwaffe’s qualitative
       superiority by eliminating either a veteran or an experte
       counter. However I think I like it as is.
       #Post#: 2494--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: May 23, 2019, 2:21 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       So, I'm seeing a LOT of flak losses in this. The breakdown of
       losses is:
       Spitfires to air combat - 4
       Bombers to air combat - 8
       Bombers to flak - 5
       So my first thought is to de-tune the flak. Two Heavy flak As
       might be a bit much. I am considering de-tuning to a single
       Heavy Flak B.
       #Post#: 2495--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: May 23, 2019, 8:07 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I certainly saw a lot, that’s for sure...
       I think it’s a better way to moderate British  losses than what
       I suggested.
       #Post#: 2497--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: guest31
       Date: May 24, 2019, 9:34 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Late to the party and relatively new to Wing Leader (although
       wargamer for decades)
       Played Operation Sunrise Solo:
       Turn1
       British lead Spitfire sqd tallies Bf109 lead flight - splits and
       sends 1 flight
       Bf109 sqd tallies lead Hampden but stays together and sets up
       for head on attack next turn.
       1 Spitfire shotdown but Bf109 Flight broken.
       Turn 2
       Only new tally is Spitfire flt from before tallies attacking
       Bf109 sqd
       Bf109 sqd attacks lead Hampden but Spitfire flt joins the fray
       1 Hampden shotdown and Spitfire flt breaks
       Turn 3
       1st Bf 109 follows lead Hampden and gets late reaction from
       Spitfire escort so all in the same hex
       2nd Bf109 tallies 2nd Hampden tries to attack but escorts (sqd
       and flt) successfully stop short
       Lead bomber in flak zone w/Spitfire/Bf109 - Flak gets one
       Hampden and now squadron disrupted
       Air combat 1 hit no damage but German sqd disrupted
       Intercepted other German sqd - 1 Bf 109 shotdown but Spitfire
       flight finally broken and Spitfire green sqd disrupted
       Turn 4
       2 Spitfire sqds left
       Drop tally on Bf109 and tally above in sun Bf109 squadron
       heading for the Wellingtons to fly out of flak
       4 Bf109 sqds - 2 stay on the Hampdens and the other 2 try to
       shift GCI for Wellingtons
       Fight in Flak 2 British bombers, Spitfire and one Bf109 sqd
       Hampdens keep going but green Spitfire sqd broken
       Turn 5
       2 Bomb Runs get 6VPs
       Another bomber shotdown leaving
       Bf109s shift to Wellingtons - last remaining Spitfire sqd
       follows
       Swirling combat around lead Wellington - only Spitfire sqd
       disrupted
       Spitfire dogfight attempt fails
       Turn 6
       Spitfire stays on Bf109 squadron attacking bombers
       Remaining Bf109 sqds target 2nd Wellington
       lead well attacked from behind w/spit support
       2nd well out of sun and head on
       2 spits shotdown and sqd breaks - no fighters left
       Turn 7
       Wellingtons begin bomb run
       Bf109s pursue from behind
       1 Wellington shotdown by flak
       1 straggler from Bf109 attack
       Turn 8
       Shift tally to following bombers
       Bf109s circle and waits for them
       Flak breaks 2 Bf109s up front!
       Another sqd breaks in combat and 1 bomber shotdown
       Turn 9
       Last 2 Wellingtons start their bomb run
       Bf109 shifts tally to returning Wellington for a head on attack
       But flak breaks Bf109 before it can attack Wellingtons
       Flak gets 1 departing Wellington
       Turn 10
       Last 2 Wellingtons brave flak on return - they make it through
       Final:
       British - 16pts bombing + 1 Bf109 shootdown = 17 (4 straggler
       bombers)
       Germans - 4 Hampdens and 2 Wellingtons and 4 Spitfires = 16
       Main lesson learned - stay out of Flak if at all possible.
       I focused on disrupting/breaking the bombers BEFORE their bomb
       runs - hence I took the chance of following them thru the Flak
       right up to their bomb release - bad idea especially at the end
       when the Flak broke 3 Bf109 squadrons. Should have waited until
       after they returned and harried them on their way back. Overall
       the bombers got good defense rolls.
       First group of Bf109's try to strip the escorts since they are
       at the end of their fuel/limits, then they and the second group
       go after the Wellingtons before Flak then harry them on the way
       out. There were 4 Stragglers after the bomb runs - if the Bf109s
       had stayed out of the Flak and waited for the bombers return and
       then taken out the stragglers and a few more bombers that could
       have been enough to swing the result. Good scenario - lots of
       choices/decisions
       #Post#: 2499--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: May 25, 2019, 4:22 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Cool, thanks for that, Art. I'm going to crunch the data on the
       playthroughs so far and see if there are any lessons to be
       learned.
       #Post#: 2508--------------------------------------------------
       Re: O23 Operation Sunrise
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: May 27, 2019, 3:19 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       So, two things:
       Firstly, I think we have an issue with the volume of flak, so
       I’m going to detune it to a Hvy Flak B as noted above. Going to
       a single flak unit should put us in a place where it might be
       more profitable to barrage.
       Secondly, I need people to keep tabs on the cause of losses in
       future plays. I need to know if losses are due to air combat or
       flak.
       Thirdly, given the large losses the British endure, I'm going to
       drop the draw window slightly.
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