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#Post#: 2909--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: pilotofficerprune Date: August 17, 2019, 10:38 am
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Okay, if we go to conventional bombing rules, the Port is worth
12 VPs and has a defence modifier of +1 and a damage value of 7.
The bombers have bomb values as follows: Stirling 17, Manchester
and Halifax 25.
Bombing is level bombing from altitude 8 or 9, so total
modifiers without flak, but assuming under flak attack, are -2
altitude, +1 defence modifier = -1.
So this gives us the following mean damage outputs. The value in
parenthesis assumes a flak modifier of -1.
Stirling = 2.1 (1.3) hits
Manchester/Halifax = 3.2 (1.9) hits
If we were to assume that one Manchester/Halifax and one
Stirling bomber squadron were affected by -1 flak mods, we would
get a total bombing output of 11.7 hits, or 12 VPs. Note that
scoring just 2.3 more hits above this mean value would deliver
24 VP, or a certain victory.
Compared with Chris’s bombing VP outputs, 12 VP compares with a
mean of 14.6 VPs. In other words, the differential is 2.6 VP.
Feeding in Chris’s air combat data we have:
German air combat VPs - 7 + 14 + 14 + 7 + 16 = 11.6 mean VPs
British air combat VPs - 5 + 14 + 6 + 4 + 12 = 8.2 mean VPs
This means that absent any other effects on the bombers, the
British mean score would be 20.2 VPs. Subtracting the German air
combat VPs, we get a mean value of 8.6, which is barely a
British victory.
In other words, using the bombing system means that mean bombing
barely delivers a British victory. Given this, I propose to drop
the draw window slightly by the bombing differential of 2.6 VPs
listed above. This means the British victory level shifts to +6
VPs. If I compress the draw window by 1 VP, we get a draw range
of +3 to +5 VPs.
Let’s give that one a try.
#Post#: 2947--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: chief2000 Date: August 22, 2019, 11:15 am
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Scenario: O24 Heavy Mob
Version: v0.4
Playtesters: Chris Bryans (Solo)
Report: This is my sixth playtest of this scenario. Note: In
all air combats involving the Spitfire V, it has the edge
Set up: Height error roll on both Bf109 Wing leaders has no
effect
Summary: This one witnessed much better scoring by the Germans,
primarily due to better rolls, rather than a change in strategy
with the one exception of assigning one of the three veterans to
II Gruppe which helped on the first tally roll. Spits failed to
score which was unusual.
Victory: British: 0 bombing points + eight Bf-109s = 8
Germans: three Manchesters plus fifteen Spitfires = 21
8-21= -13 German victory
The bombing was an utter failure. Not one hit on target. To
balance this out, the flak failed to hit anyone either except
for interfering successfully with one bombing attempt. Here
were the results:
Halifax T: rolled eight (-3: -2 for V sights at altitude 9; -1
flak while bombing)
Halifax W: rolled six (-2 for V sights) = 4 no effect
Stirling U: rolled seven (-2 for V sights)=5 no effect
Stirling V rolled six (-2 for V sights) =4 no effect
Manchester rolled seven (-2 for V sights) = 4 no effect
Recommendations: none. I am going to test this again to see if
I get better bombing results and if the Spits score better; this
seems to be an outlier in terms of fighter combat. I like the
bombing rules and the new victory condition point spread. If
this were scored under the previous version the point spread
(even allowing for the new point spread)would have looked like
this:
British: 15 bombing plus eight Bf109s = 23
Germans: three Manchesters + fifteen Spitfires = 21
23-21=2 Just barely a German victory
So, even though the Germans would have had a kill ratio of a
little over two to one, their victory would have been minimal.
The loss of one more Bf-109 or one less Spitfire or bomber would
have turned it into a draw. Seems fairly imbalanced under the
previous version.
Bottom line: this one better reflects not only balance but the
historical realities of the period, I think.
#Post#: 2955--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: pilotofficerprune Date: August 22, 2019, 2:01 pm
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I'm surprised at so few flak mods.
#Post#: 2960--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: chief2000 Date: August 22, 2019, 3:54 pm
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So was I. Even when I rolled a hit, I couldn't get one - a
straggler or two was all I got since the die roll was always
less than or equal to the protection!
#Post#: 2966--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: chief2000 Date: August 24, 2019, 4:18 pm
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Scenario: O24 Heavy Mob
Version: v0.4
Playtesters: Chris Bryans (Solo)
Report: This is my seventh playtest of this scenario. Note:
In all air combats involving the Spitfire V, it has the edge
Set up: Height error roll on II Gruppe moves the vector marker
back one space
Summary:
All German Gruppen completely failed tallies on Turn one while
the high Spit sweeps tally I Gruppe.
High Spits bounce I Gruppe which doesn’t turn as well for the
British as I might have thought.
Turn 2 sees some unusual disruption of two of the bomber
formations (Halifax) and the Wing leader of the top sweep
mission also breaks. This is a first for me in my seven
playtests.
Flak attacks were dismal, once again. Even when I could get a
hit, I rolled too low to even net stragglers. For example, in
the best case, I rolled a nine, got one hit then rolled a one
for the hit results.
Bombing was just a little better. Oddly enough, both of the
Halifaxes broke before bombing. Still, I went ahead just to see
if bombing results would improve this round despite the special
rule assigning no points to broken bombers:
Halifax T: rolled 9+1 target modifier; -4 for being broken, -2
for V sights at altitude =4 – no effect. Had he been only
disrupted (a much more common result) it would have been 10%
which would have been 3 points of damage
Halifax W: rolled 3 - no effect
Stirling U: rolled 3 – no effect
Stirling V rolled 10+1 target modifier; -2 for V sights at
altitude = 25% (4 damage points = max damage of 7)
Manchester rolled 5 – no effect
So, if the first Halifax had succeeded, the bombing would have
netted 12 victory points. Instead, it only got six.
Victory: British: six bombing points + eight Bf-109s = 14
(same fighter score as last playtest)
Germans: four Manchesters plus six Spitfires = 14
0-0
Had the bombing succeeded in netting 12 victory points which
almost happened, it would have been 20-14=6 (British victory).
This is what I feel it should have been. For want of a shoe….
Recommendation: Count me as signing off on this one.
#Post#: 3114--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: Elias Nordling Date: September 15, 2019, 8:01 am
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v0.4
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
T1.
One Bf109 sneaked in and downed 2 halifaxes. Otherwise attacks
mostly parried, with 2 BF109 lost.
T2:
Most Bf engaged, a few break. But up front 1,5 squadron alone
against halifaxes. 1 Halifax downed, 1 Halifax squadron
disrupted.
T3:
4 1s rolled for tallies so not much changes. Halifax that had
taken 3 losses becomes broken by flak.
Front BF109 rolls hot, downing 3 more halifaxes. The flight
behind it is not so lucky, losing 1 fighter and breaking.
T4:
Of the remaining BF109s, ome manages to elbow its way to the
Manchesters, downing 1, before being entangled in a dogfight
with two Spitfire squadrons. The Front Bf109 fights on but
scores no additional hits. the Broken halifaxes roll 4 for
bombing.
T5:
Both stirlings disrupted by flak, bad luck!
Another BF109 almost catches up with the Manchesters before
being intercepted by escorts at long range. It breaks.
Second Halifax rolls 4 on bombing, another table lookup I don't
have to do.
Front BF109 also finally breaks without causing further losses.
Final BF109 in dogfight also breaks, as do two Spitfire SQ
fighting it.
T6:
Pursuit combat of one Bf109 Squadron results in no losses.
Disrupted Stirlings roll 6 and 8, no hits.
T7:
Flak manages to disrupt the Manchester, that actually rolls 12
on bombing! 25% (would have been 50% without the last
disruption). 6 hits.
1 Bf109 lost in pursuit combat.
T8: Two more BF109 lost in pursuit. Game then ends.
Score:
British: 6 points bombing, 10 BF109s: 16
German: 5 Halifax, 1 Manchester, 3 Spitfire: 20 (21?)
Total score: -4. German victory
Felt like German victory.
Without the last disruption, the score would have been 2 for a
Narrow German victory.
Note, one Spit Sweep never tallied.
Attacks on bombers: 9
Cohesion hits on bombers by flak: 4
Comments: I feel the Germans lucked out a bit with its veteran
ace sitting in front with no Spifires there to engage it, and
the bombers breaking too easily by flak, and rolling below
average. the final bombing roll almost made up for it.
I suppose you could tinker a it more with it, but I had an
exciting game, the Germans won and it felt like the British
could have won. Good scenario! A signoff from me.
#Post#: 3268--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: Al Cannamore Date: September 29, 2019, 4:28 pm
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Interesting picture on this scenario. It looks like the Stirling
crew forgot to shut down their motors.
#Post#: 3745--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: Gordon Christie Date: November 7, 2019, 4:06 am
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Andrew (Luftwaffe and I have now had a run through this one.
Some concerns, mainly relating to the scenario as history.
The Germans lost 12 fighters whilst the British lost only 2
fighters and 2 bombers (both Manchesters). Flak and bombing
seemed fairly average with 5 hits on the port for +6 victory
points. Final air to air outcome was 12 victory points for the
British compared to 6 victory points for the Germans and a
pretty solid British win with a final score of +12 – which it
felt like.
Air to air the dice somewhat, but probably not overwhelmingly,
favoured the British. Overall playing the RAF I felt I had the
situation pretty much in hand almost throughout. There were only
2 unopposed attacks on the bombers (one head on), and at the end
there where 4 unbroken Spitfire squadrons still in play opposing
1 remaining Luftwaffe squadron. Quite prudently Andrew
voluntarily broke the final German fighter Squadron and ran
away, as I think any further combats were unlikely – barring
some fairly wild lock – to go the Germans way.
As it stands it plays satisfactorily. I think it might be
relatively hard for the Germans to win but my main concern is
that it doesn't fit well with either the aftermath narrative,
nor with my understanding of the history. The Germans are at a
distinct disadvantage, with the 3 squadron wing starting at a
lower altitude in O8, and likely to be tallied by the Spitfire
sweep or any escort squadrons upfront with the bombers before
they can do much harm. The trailing German fighter squadrons may
get at the Manchester's before the escort engage but they are
similarly likely to be caught by the escorts before a great deal
of harm can be done. The balance of fighter combat is likely to
be pretty even. The majority of combats we had were around the
range -1 to +1, and I think the most unbalanced fighter combats
(involving veteran squadrons on one side) were sitting at +/-2.
The RAF have more fighter squadrons, altitude advantage and are
of similar quality which is going to make it pretty difficult
for the Germans to get through to the bombers, as the aftermath
narrative suggests they did historically.
My understanding of the Spitfire escorted daylight heavy bomber
raids on Brest is that the Spitfires struggled due to fuel
limitations, and that the Luftwaffe very much had the best of
it. As it stands the scenario really doesn't give that
impression.
I would be inclined to suggest that the Spitfires should have
known non jettisonable drop tanks (as in the Operation Rise
Scenario) or that they should be at their few limits, possibly
even both. I struggled to find exact information on Spitfire V
drop tanks at this stage in the war but I think they were still
using the non jettisonable slipper tank the Mark IIas used for
the Brest raids (I couldn't easily find a solid source & don't
have time to dig properly today so please feel free to tell me
I'm wrong). The Spitfires were able to tally sufficiently early
that drop tanks were never an encumbrance in combat &, starting
lower, the Germans were never able to impose combat on
Spitfires before they had a chance to drop their tanks.
We felt the Germans should have a bit more of an altitude
advantage reflecting good radar cover & early warning over
Brittany, and probably that the 3 squadron wing should be broken
up as it makes early RAF tallies relatively straightforward with
the formation bonus.
Suggested changes to the setup would be to start the left-hand
German wing with the wing leader in D2. This offers some
possibilities for either going after the escort or allows the
trailing Manchester to be caught on GT1 with a decent tally
roll. The right-hand Germans should be – we felt – a bit higher.
If we get another go at it we were going to suggest adding a
further German fighter Squadron and starting 2 separate wings in
our R12 and W13. The stirlings and Halifaxes could be in a
formation K9, L9 (Halifaxes), I8, J8 (Stirlings) which makes
tallying easer & probably better reflects the non cohesive
formations the night bombers used reflecting their lack of
daylight formation bombing training. The Manchesters could
either continue to trail in F8 or be moved to H8 (in which case
the left hand German fighters might go to F12 or-if more choices
for the Germans were desired on or left of column F at altitude
12 or less). Unplayed this setup looks to give a bit more in the
way of choices and decisions for the Germans in particular &
opens up the option of trying to write down the fighters a bit
(tactical flexibility & wing leaders will help the German here)
before going for the bombers or just going straight in. If the
RAF are a bit encumbered by drop tanks a more co altitude start
should shift the fighter combat the Germans way a bit and make
the bombers (which are fairly tough) a bit more vulnerable.
We can potentially give this another go on Sunday –
unfortunately real life gets in the way for both of us until
then. I appreciate that is after the deadline, and that you may
prefer to just let the scenario run as it is but it doesn't
quite fit the narrative as it stands – and I note that most of
the other plea tests have featured disproportionate German
fighter losses, usually in double figures which I don't think
fits with the history.
Bottom line – to fit with a history think it needs some tweaks,
which are probably doable but not before the 10th.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 3746--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 7, 2019, 4:19 am
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So long as we confine this to a couple of scenarios (I'm also
looking at Hunters in the Sky) we can continue to test after
Sunday. But that would be primarily to verify the changes.
#Post#: 3747--------------------------------------------------
Re: O24 Heavy Mob
By: Elias Nordling Date: November 7, 2019, 5:08 am
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I'd be willing to try the tweaks. i also felt the scenario
played well, but didn't quite fit the historical description.
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