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#Post#: 11--------------------------------------------------
E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:26 am
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Date: 6 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
This is a strange one.
Oh, it actually plays really nice, it is the actual Japanese
plan I cannot fathom. Why send 60+ fighters to escort 9 bombers
when those fighters are perfectly fine fighter bombers in
themselves? It looks a bit like those Circus missions we see in
a couple of scenarios, except those were designed to create
attrition which ought to be exactly what the Japanese do not
want in Burma.
But attrition they will get. The bombing mission is almost a
guaranteed bust, at -4 for altitude and clouds, before cohesion
results (and veteran status).
I hit on a good plan as the Japanese. I assumed I didn't have to
go in a straight line to F7, so the bombers climbed to Alt 11
before dropping down again. This way the altitude advantage the
Japanese already have was maximized. On the other hand, this had
the side effect of the bombers being attacked in heavy clouds
which broke them.
The Japanese used their height advantage to great advantage, and
were mostly able to pounce the climbing US fighters, then lock
them into dogfights. At several times the Japanese drew those
dogfights into dense clouds to break the attackers.
The Japanese were lucky in their cohesion rolls and actually
managed to overcome US numerical superiority. The Japanese never
ran out of fighter protection. They don't have a significant
quality disadvantage either, but their lower protection
inevitably meant they took more losses in the end.
Score:
Japanese
0 bombing, 3 P-40, 7 P51
Score: 10
US
11 Ki43
2 Ki49
Score: 15
Final score: -5, US win.
I don't see the Japanese getting a positive score in this game.
This operation is botched from the start and the best the
Japanese can do is probably to prevent it from turning into th
historical disaster. In that sense the result certainly felt
like a Japanese win.
You might want to consider removing the bombing roll entirely
and use the points for fresh/disrupted/broken from the standard
rules for dropping the bombs. As it is, the result might shift
from a fluke 12 roll in an otherwise hopeless bombing mission.
I wouldn't advice on forcing the Japanese bombers to fly
straight ahead to F7, as it would take away the decision that
gave the scenario some unique flavor. The climbing strategy
isn't a given success, especially if the Japanese start caring
about the bombers being disrupted or not. The US fighters could
hav picked a standoff strategy assembling above F7 instead of
trying to climb and engage. That could also backfire, the
Japanse only had to circle for one turn in this game.
I would suggest having the Japanese score subracted from the US
score, and the bombing points per above. Then call a score of
4-6 a draw. Which means the Japanese got a draw in my game but
would have won if the bomber wasn't broken.
#Post#: 12--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:28 am
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Date: 14 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
Played the revised version of the scenario, which changed it
quite a bit.
With no altitude restriction on where to circle, there is less
reason for the Japanese not to climb (they might choose to stay
at the original altitude to get it over with quicker. I have to
try to see what difference it makes), so the bombers climbed to
altitude 12, which is the ptimum level as the Ki43 is still at
medium performance while the US aircraft are at high.
That and the altitude advantage allows the Japanese something of
a fair fight, but they still had trouble keeping the US fighters
away from the bombers. Despite the reduced number of US
fighters, the US ended up with a numerical advantage even though
the Japanese had one fighter squadron left to the end.
There was some really interesting maneuvering for position
again, that you don't see much of in most scenarios, which I
like.
The bombers were broken before "bombing", and 6 were shot down.
The score was:
US: 9 Ki43, 6 Ki49: 21
Japan: Bombing 1, 6 P51, 5 P40: 12
Final score: 9. US victory, but not with a wide margin, so I
think we have the score in the right ballpark.
Comments and suggestions:
1) Does setup at least 2 squares away from Japanese apply to
reinforcements too. I think it does but it doesn't hurt to
clarify.
2) I suggest halving the points for "bombing" if done at
altitude 10 or higher. Also you shoulod mention that the
Japanese drops their bomb load at that point.
3) If only part of a large formation is visible due to clouds,
does it still receive the tally modifier?
4) You should probably write one FULL turn of circling to make
it clear 1 MP is not enough.
#Post#: 13--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:30 am
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Date: 21 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
I forgot to post this after playing it.
I tried Ledo without climbing with the Japanese to see if
getting across the map faster would help them. It did not, at
least not in this playthrough. All but one bomber was shot down,
and the Japanese got a less favourable exchange ratio because
they were fighting in the medium altitude zone of the US
fighters. Of course the US fighters also had an easier time
reaching the bombers.
Score:
Japanese 1 bombing. 5 P40. 5 P51: 11
US: 9Ki43, 8 Ki49: 26
Final score: 15. US victory
So it seems an ahistorical approach is the best shot for the
Japanese, but I wouldn't want to regulate that out because it is
what makes the scenario unusual and fun. I still haven't seen a
Japanese victory, though, and there certainly seems to be no
need to reduce the number of escorts to match the reduced US
fighters.
#Post#: 14--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:31 am
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Query from Dave Demko:
Here are a few questions on E03 Disaster Over Ledo v0.4. The
question in each case is: Is this the right way to handle it?
Since this is "not a bombing scenario" (section 15.0 is not in
play), the bomber continues across the map to exit the left
edge. If it declares RTB, it has to turn around to exit the
right (friendly) edge.
Although the bomber does make a bombing attack, it still gets
rid of its bomb load once over the target. Elias has been
playing that way, too.
Since the bomber squadron doesn't fly an actual bombing profile,
direct fire flak attacks on it during the turn it "bombs" do not
get +1 dice roll modifier for bomb aiming.
#Post#: 15--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:33 am
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Date: 25 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
This time I employed the famed Japanese Float like a Turd
stratagem.
The bombers climbed and climbed and climbed. As long as they
kept climbing, the fighters couldn't reach them of course. This
had to stop at the top of medium altitude as they would start
slow climbing after that for little advantage. The idea was to
delay the fighters reaching the bombers giving them fewer turns
to attack them before they exited.
It mostly worked, but it was also partly because the Japanese
fighters had a decent success rate. It was not until Turn 13,
when the bombers had reached column I, that the US were able to
get their first pass on the bombers. They got 6 attacks in total
on the bombers before they exited.
There were some real subtleties with vectors and tallies, some
US fighters getting behind because they didn't have a tally or
vector to follow.
It looket like it would work. The bombers took some losses but
the fighters were there to cover them most of the time, and the
bombers were only disrupted when bombing, so some bonus points
there. But at the very last combat, the US got lucky and downed
2 bombers and one fighter for no losses in return.
That gave a us score of 9 Ki43 and 4 Ki49: 17, versus a Japanese
score of 9 P51, 1 P40 and 3 bombing points for 13.
Final score 4, a draw. Without that last combat it would have
been a Japanese victory. The score seemed entirely fair.
I am not entirely convinced the "float like a turd" stratagem is
superior to climbing to altitude 12 where the Japanese fighters
are at Medium altitude and the US at high for a better exchange
ratio. I do think there needs to be an incentive for the
Japanese to at least consider not climbing, but given how finely
tuned the score has been the last few turns, I would suggest
doubling the bombing score from under a certain altitude.
And the special rules still needs to mention that the bomb load
is dropped after column E.
#Post#: 16--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:34 am
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Date: 27 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
The 5th playthrough was ended early after the P40s were able to
abort the entre sweep without returning to base themselves.
Experience told me the Japanese were in trouble after that.
The 6th playthrough employed the "12 is best" plan for the
Japanese, with them a bit more careful in keeping their height
advantage with the fighters. They were also fairly lucky at
aborting US fighters.
The US still got through to the bombers, but they were mostly
being protected by fighters. The US got 10 attacks on the
bombers but only shot down 3 (5 protection vs 1 firepower is
tough) and disrupted the bombers.
Score:
US: 7 Ki43, 3 Ki49: 13. (6 more Japanese stragglers!)
Japanese: 3 bomb, 4 P40, 15(!) P51: 22
Japanese victory.
I realized that I in 1 or 2 games forgot that the P51s only had
1 firepower, which makes a bit of a difference.
From this, I would suggest that the Japanese halve or lose the
VPs for bombing above a certain altitude. I don't know if the
scenario is perfectly balanced but it certainly seems to be
winnable by both sides.
If you need more space for scenario instructions, I would take
out the flak. I've never used it as the US attack usually gets
rolling in earnest by the time the bombers reach the flak zone.
#Post#: 17--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:35 am
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Date: 29 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
I was a little concerned that there was an undiscovered Japanese
bias, given David's reports and that I had misplayed the
firepower of the P51A, so I decided to have another try.
This was not the game to alleviate my fears. The Japanese had
three exceptional combats all causing 3 fighter losses, and the
US were unlucky with their cohesion rolls in the second half of
the game.
Assuming the Japanese get half or no points for bombing above
altitude 9, the final score was: 15 points for fighters, while
the US got 1 bomber and 12 fighters. In the negative but not
massively so.
#Post#: 18--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:36 am
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Date: 29 Aug
Playtester: Elias Nordling
This time around saw a draw. The Japanese bombed with a
disrupted bomber from altitude 12 (0, 1 or 2 points depending on
how you handle this), and shot down 11 fighters. The US downed 4
bombers and 9 fighters. Regardless it was a draw.
The P51 has a hard time killing bombers despite repeated attacks
because of FP1 vs protection 5. For that reason, I now think the
US could use one more experte to gain a little more firepower.
#Post#: 19--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:38 am
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Date: 25 Aug
Playtester: Dave Demko
Sorry to have dropped off for a while. I blame affordable travel
to Peru, the World Cup, and new additions to the family. Before
a playtest hiatus, I had been looking at E03 Disaster Over Ledo,
and I see Elias has analyzed this one. My first impression was
"a strange and interesting scenario." Now I have played through
the latest revision, v0.4, twice. I'd say it's lots of fun, good
solutions are non-obvious, and it's fair or close to fair.
More specifically, I agree that the Japanese have a clear
incentive to climb with the bomber. If we think that needs a
counterbalance, as Elias suggests, we could reduce the VPs for
flying into column E if the bomber is higher than altitude 9.
With earlier versions of the scenario I thought the Americans
had good prospects for chewing up the Japanese force. That's
still true in v0.4, I think, but it now feels like more of a
fair fight. I'll need another couple playings to be sure,
because my last two were skewed by very poor shooting and
cohesion rolls by the US.
Playthrough 1 (likely an outlier)
US squadrons broke at their earliest opportunities, or close to
it. The bombers had one loss and one straggler, getting
disrupted only after passing over the target.
US VPs for kills: 7
Japanese VPs for kills: 13 (?!)
Japanese VPs for bombing: 6
net -12 massive Japanese victory
Playthrough 2
One US squadron misplayed its vector approach and spend much of
the game circling, but eventually go in the fight. The US again
had a hard time closing with the bombers, inflicting only one
straggler and doing poorly on cohesion checks. One Japanese
squadron with Veterans and and Experte just wouldn't quit.
US VPs for kills: 9
Japanese VPs for kills: 9
Japanese VPs for bombing: 3
net -3 Japanese victory
With less lopsided dice for combat and cohesion this would have
been a close game.
#Post#: 21--------------------------------------------------
Re: E03 Disaster Over Ledo
By: pilotofficerprune Date: September 12, 2018, 4:48 am
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The current VP outputs for plays are:
Elias 1st = -5
Elias 2nd = 9
Elias 3rd = 15
Elias 4th = 4
Elias 5th = N/A
Elias 6th = 9
Elias 7th = -1
Elias 8th = -5
Dave 1st = -12
Dave 2nd = -3
Average = 1.2
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