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#Post#: 443--------------------------------------------------
Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: Elias Nordling Date: November 1, 2018, 2:01 pm
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There's one thing that has been nagging me for a while. It has
become awfully hard to stop bombers. Even the -2 broken modifier
doesn't feel like much when you are dive bombing or strafing
with a veteran. Add -1 for flak and that broken veteran dive
bomber STILL attacks at +1 with a 58% chance of scoring 25% or
more. It is MUCH easier to cause substantial damage with a
broken or disrupted bomber than it used to be with the halving
and quartering. Add the fact that altitude mods have been toned
down.
I know it's a bit late to start to jiggle with something that
potentially shifts the balance of every bombing scenario again,
so my suggestion is to leave the disr bomber mod at -1, but make
the broken mod -4. I would prefer -2 for disr, but that would
probably have a cascading effect on game balance for just about
every bombing scenario, whereas the broken results are uncommon
enough to not totally shift the balance of the game but
something you want to work for.
#Post#: 451--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 3, 2018, 5:28 am
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I am very happy with the -1 for disruption. A -1 modifier is
pretty powerful in the aggregate and does drop mean results by a
goodly amount. If veterancy balances out the effects of
disruption then that's what veterancy should do.
I agree that there's a stronger case for de-fanging broken
squadrons and pushing the broken down (or up?) to -3.
#Post#: 505--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: Elias Nordling Date: November 7, 2018, 1:38 pm
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The thing is, with 2 dice, all modifiers aren't created equal,
and if you have the +3 base for dive bombing, strafing or firing
rockets, a -1 isn't much.
Here's another math example I just did, comparing flights and
squadrons. I picked strafing fighters, as this is the situation
where you actually have the potential choice of splitting into
flights before strafing. So, we have the standard FP2 fighter
strafing at +3.
Two flights will then score 1,78 hits, compared to 1,11 hits for
one squadron. 60% more!
If there is a Flak mod of -1, for +2 total, it is 0,89 to 1,33
or 50% more.
So obviously the -1 for flight isn't making up for having two
attacks in this case.
#Post#: 509--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 8, 2018, 1:35 am
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The notion that two flights can deliver more damage than one
squadron was known from the start with this change. After all,
the intent was to allow a flight to attack and achieve 100% of
the printed bomb hits, albeit with a lower chance.
In mitigation, bombers and fighter-bomber flights cannot split
except in one very specific and limited instance--torpedo
bombers. So with that exception, players cannot leverage this as
a way to boost damage. (I'll come to your strafing example in a
second.)
And yes, while the upper bound for hits does not change, because
flights can generally score 100% in most circumstances, the
average result does change. That change can vary (I've seen it
as small as -33% of mean hits), but is generally in the region
of -40% of mean hits.
You raise the issue of strafing as another possible method by
which split squadrons can leverage the new rule. However, as
splits usually happen so that one flight can get involved in
air-to-air while the other does something else, like strafe, I'm
not sure this is such a big deal. Maybe there are occasions
where people could wrangle splits to achieve an extra 0.5
strafing hits, but this stuff seems to be such an outlier that
I'm not too worried about it.
#Post#: 510--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: Elias Nordling Date: November 8, 2018, 2:01 am
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I agree that it isn't a specific problem, though you can still
strafe with a tally so this is something you can create at will.
I am a little concerned with the more general problem that the
"+3 bombing profiles" might now be too hard to negate with
negative modifiers, making them unstoppable. I sometimes fimd
myself ignoring these bombers when there are others, because I
feel that they will score no matter what I do.
#Post#: 511--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 8, 2018, 3:10 am
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Okay, let's run some numbers, as it's been a long time since I
last ran them and I want to make sure they are as I remember.
These will assume we keep flights/disrupted effecdts at -1, and
increase broken results to -3.
So, we'll start by listing the mean hits, by total modifiers,
for a Bomb value of 10. The value in parenthesis in the pN for
getting 50% hits (i.e. 5 hits in total).
+4 = 6.36 (pN = 0.72)
+3 = 5.19 (pN = 0.58)
+2 = 4.03 (pN = 0.42)
+1 = 2.97 (pN = 0.28)
+0 = 2.03 (pN = 0.17)
-1 = 1.31 (pN = 0.08)
-2 = 0.81 (pN = 0.03)
So, what are the effects of applying a -1 modifier to the
average output?
+4 to +3 = reduction to 81.6% of previous value
+3 to +2 = reduction to 80.1% of previous value
+2 to +1 = reduction to 73.6% of previous value
+1 to +0 = reduction to 68.3% of previous value
+0 to -1 = reduction to 64.8% of previous value
-1 to -2 = reduction to 61.8% of previous value
Looking at the way the drop off accelerates as you approach the
low modifiers, this gives some credence to Elias's claim that at
the top end the -1 modifier doesn't make a huge amount of
difference.
Let's quickly test the effects of increasing the broken result
to -3:
+4 to +1 = reduction to 46.6% of previous value
+3 to +0 = reduction to 39.1% of previous value
+2 to -1 = reduction to 32.5% of previous value
+1 to -2 = reduction to 27.2% of previous value
Again, we see that the effects on accurate bombing profiles are
smaller than the effects on less-accurate bombing.
#Post#: 512--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 8, 2018, 3:19 am
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Okay, let's run the exercise again, assuming that
flight/disrupted effects are at -2, and broken results at -4, as
per Elias's original suggestion:
First, the -2 modifier:
+4 to +2 = reduction to 63.3% of previous value
+3 to +1 = reduction to 57.2% of previous value
+2 to +0 = reduction to 50.3% of previous value
+1 to -1 = reduction to 44.1% of previous value
+0 to -2 = reduction to 39.9% of previous value
Now the -4 modifier:
+4 to +0 = reduction to 31.9% of previous value
+3 to -1 = reduction to 25.2% of previous value
+2 to -2 = reduction to 20.0% of previous value
That's putting the -2 modifier much closer to a 50% reduction in
hits, and the -4 modifier to a 75% reduction in hits.
#Post#: 513--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 8, 2018, 3:36 am
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I'll admit to being a little stunned by these numbers, as I
thought I'd done the maths correctly the last time around and
percieved that the effects of a -1 modifier were higher.
So mwhat have we learned from this?
(1) The effects of a -1 modifier on the mean outputs are
marginal at the top end, where very accurate profiles and
Veterans live. They are much more substantial in the mid-zone of
low-accuracy profiles.
(2) Mean reductions in hits is closer to 25% than 40%.
(3) With the -2 scheme the same curve of results applies, but
mean outputs are close to a 50% reduction.
#Post#: 514--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 8, 2018, 3:44 am
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If we went to a -2 modifier for flights and disrupted squadrons,
what would be the effects on the pN for achieving a 100% bombing
result?
+4 pN = 0.42 (with -2 modifier drops to 0.17)
+3 pN = 0.28 (with -2 modifier drops to 0.08)
+2 pN = 0.17 (with -2 modifier drops to 0.03)
+1 pN = 0.08 (with -2 modifier drops to 0.00)
+0 pN = 0.03
-1 pN = 0.00
#Post#: 524--------------------------------------------------
Re: Bomber mods for disrupted and broken squadrons
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 11, 2018, 2:20 am
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So yes, I’ve been brooding on this in recent days.
I’m a little angry that I didn’t do my homework on this
sufficiently. When I first did the mods, a lot of my focus was
on lower odds attacks. Indeed, my model for the change was the
bomb-dropping fighter-bomber flight (mean mod +1), not the
rocket-firing flight (+3) and certainly I wasn’t paying enough
attention to the dive-bomber, as most of them attack in squadron
strength anyway. I was generally happy that at the higher ends,
each -1 mod represented a substantial decrease in pN for
achieving the high bombing results.
I do think that Elias has a point here. If he’s telling me that
at the high end, the effect of fight/disruption mods is so
marginal that it affects his decision to go after such
squadrons, then we are doing something wrong, and I have to give
serious consideration to doubling the flight/disruption/broken
mods as suggested.
The good thing is that in terms of legacy scenarios this means
little difference. If mean bombing outputs are halved on
disruption, then you are getting much the effect of the first
edition rule.
So the focus of examining this change is on the new scenarios.
Particularly those featuring flight-sized fighter bombers and
light bombers, such as Kuban Meatgrinder.
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