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       #Post#: 564--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: November 17, 2018, 3:13 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: Rabaul Campaign, Nov 1
       Version:
       Playtesters: Scott Key, solitaire
       Report:
       Weather did nit advance and thus stayed on  Start (reset)
       Clouds, Wispy at 7 thus they played no role in the battle
       Medium bomber raid. Port target
       7 Sqns  B-25s, (3 Sqns Gunships, All Sqns armed with Parafrags,
       1 Veteran Sqn)(3 Strafing, 4 Bombing), 1 Experte and  a veteran
       Sqn
       6 P-38 Sqns (3 sweep, 3 escort), 1 Experte Wing Leader Veteran
       Squadron in the Sweep, 1 experte in the sweep, 1 Experte Wing
       leader Veteran Sqn in the Escort Wing, 1 experte in a B-25
       6 A6M5 (CAP) (2 Wing Leader experte Veteran Squadrons)
       3 A6M5 reinforcements (intercept), (1 Veteran Sqn,  1 Green
       flight)
       October 30 and 31 were spent recovering the P-38s to the point
       where they would be used as escorts. The odds looked too long to
       send any raid without any escort whatsoever. Japanese took the
       reinforcements.
       Game played similar to previous medium bomber raids. The USAAF
       sweeps and escorts dealt pretty well with the IJN CAP but the
       Japanese were still able to sneak an attack or two into the raid
       causing a couple of casualties and disrupting some gunships. All
       squadrons on both sides but one P-38 escort were broken (or in
       one case had returned to base).
       The bombers successfully suppressed the first heavy flak battery
       but nonetheless took lots of hits and some disruptions in
       traversing the multiple barrage squares. A single gunship
       squadron scored 18 points of damage on the port followed by two
       more lesser hits to bring it to 22 total damage. One cruiser was
       successfully strafed for 1 point of damage.
       During the flight out the Japanese reinforcing Squadrons/flights
       caused many more hits and converted most stragglers that were on
       the bombers into full kills.
       16 (!) Zekes were downed.
       Japanese downed 6 P-38s (!) and 16 B-25s (a massacre)
       Total: +4 CVP (+3 for target fatally damaged  with 21 points of
       damage and +1 for Japanese reinforcements), P-38s moved to the
       starred box with three hits still in the box. B-25s ended at the
       starred box with 7 hits still in the box the A6M5s at seven with
       with no hits still in the box
       After adjustment of -1 CVP because the airfield was undamaged
       the US has a net 7 CVP. On Nov 2 the Port will score one more
       CVP but this would be negated if the airfield in good shape. So
       an unescorted raid by the Heavies is necessary to ensure a slim
       victory. Odds seem about the same for raising the Port back to
       Fatally damaged as for scoring major damage on the airfield so I
       am thinking the raid will be against the Port. It will be a
       total massacre however...
       Recommendations: No recommendations. I find it unclear as to
       whether you can choose to fly a bombing raid WITHOUT escorts
       even if they are available. Not sure why you would do so but I
       did mull it over.
       #Post#: 565--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: November 17, 2018, 3:16 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Now to decide what altitude to fly the heavies at. Probably try
       to calculate how quickly the Zekes can climband base it on that.
       #Post#: 566--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: November 17, 2018, 5:25 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote ---
       > I find it unclear as to whether you can choose to fly a
       bombing raid WITHOUT escorts even if they are available.
       --- End Quote ---
       Interesting. Is this an option we should offer to the player?
       #Post#: 567--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: November 17, 2018, 5:38 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       From a historical perspective: I have read that during several
       raids bombers pressed on despite their escorts turning back. But
       that is weather related and dealt with well in the campaign
       system.
       I know that amongst the USAAF types there was still some belief
       that Heavies could go it alone even at this point in 1943. But
       did they ever do it in the SWPac? That would be my deciding
       point...
       The temptation is to launch a Heavy raid w/o P-38s so that the
       P-38s get another day to recover sorties. The Heavies might
       possibly score enough damage to gain a CVP, though this seems
       improbable.
       #Post#: 631--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: November 29, 2018, 3:48 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: Rabaul Campaign, Nov 2 & 3
       Version:
       Playtesters: Scott Key, solitaire
       Report:
       Weather advanced 1 space CW to good
       Clouds, Wispy at 6 thus they played no role in the battle
       Heavy bomber raid. Airfield target
       6 Sqns  B-24s, 3 Veteran Sqns +2 Experte: Flew at altitude 14
       NO P-38 escorts (none were available)
       7 A6M5 (Intercept) squadrons (2 Wing Leader experte Veteran
       Squadrons) 1 Wing (A,B) at altitude 12/11, second Wing (CDE) at
       altitude 5/4/3, individual intercept sqns (F & G) at altitude 3
       Most of the A6M5s had to spend the whole game climbing to
       altitude 14. The lower interceptor wing almost didn’t catch up
       with the bombers as they passed overhead since I miscalculated
       where the interception should occur. I was surprised by how
       heavy the Japanese casualties were relative to the number of
       B-24s downed.
       Flak was pretty effective at disrupting the bombers and this
       ended up being important.
       Bombing was ineffective since the highest rolls were a couple of
       8s. These were modified down by the altitude modifier (-2) and
       the fact that these squadrons were both disrupted. One Veteran+
       Experte squadron was able to get a 10% hit scoring 2 points of
       damage (Slight). I believe that flying lower would have resulted
       in more broken B-24 squadrons so I dont think that altitude was
       the problem, mostly it was just that the odds were against
       scoring anything meaningful. However if only a few more hits
       were scored the game would have been much closer.  A single 25%
       hit and would have negated the -1 CVP penalty.
       10 Zekes were downed. The heavy bomber advantage and the fact
       that the Japanese often chose to use turning attacks
       contributed greatly to these numbers.
       Japanese downed 8 B-24s
       Total: +0 CVP
       After adjustment of -1 CVP because the airfield was undamaged
       and -2 CVP on Nov 3 because  the Cruisers sortied the US has a
       net 4 CVP a pretty bad campaign loss.
       Recommendations:
       I am assuming that if you have NO P-38s available as escort you
       can fly a bombing mission w/o them, however I dont see that
       explicitly stated. I am assuming this mission was legit but if
       not then the USAAF loss still ultimately lay with the FIRST
       Heavy bomber mission (another mission which also didn’t result
       in any meaningful damage and set the stage for P-38 recovery to
       be difficult).
       The Japanese deliberately tried to cause the P-38 situation to
       collapse  and I would say that strategy succeeded. The IJN can
       take way more damage than the USAAF while still flying thus
       engaging the P-38s seems to be the best approach to the
       campaign. I also think my combat rolls were very “hot” in this
       campaign compared to what I’m used to and so the casualties were
       much higher than expected.
       #Post#: 632--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: November 30, 2018, 4:01 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Hmmm. . .
       Good catch on needing clarification on whether raids can be
       flown without escort. I'm tempted to force the US player to fly
       with escorts unless none are available.
       I wonder what the American response is to a strategy of
       attempting to attrite only the escorts early on?
       #Post#: 635--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: November 30, 2018, 2:43 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: ScottKey link ---
       > I am assuming that if you have NO P-38s available as escort
       you can fly a bombing mission w/o them, however I dont see that
       explicitly stated.
       --- End Quote ---
       Rule R7.3 seems fairly clear to me. If the squadrons value is 0,
       no sorties of that type are generated.
       Is there any need to reinforce this concept? If so, where?
       #Post#: 636--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: November 30, 2018, 10:08 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       No, it is clear enough. For some reason I started doubting
       whaether a raid would be launched knowing there would be no
       escorts (as opposed to escorts aborting). My problem. No rules
       clarification needed.
       #Post#: 637--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: ScottKey
       Date: November 30, 2018, 10:19 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       As to what the American response should be... not sure. I am
       stuck on the notion that my later problems all oroginated in my
       initial Heavy Bomber raid. In hindsight I think that a more
       measured pace of B-25 raids would have got the USAAF the points
       they needed without quite so many losses. That assumes, however,
       that the weather cooperates. The weather proceeded perfectly
       predictably until Nov 1 and Right now I’m thinking that the
       campaign was lost by then.
       Maybe less dogfighting? But, of course, that’s not entirely in
       their control. I know P-38 pilots when later writing advice for
       rookies emphasized NEVER getting into dogfights with the
       Japanese:  Hit, run and climb back up to do it again. This is
       certainly borne out in the game
       #Post#: 639--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Rabaul Campaign Feedback
   DIR By: pilotofficerprune
       Date: December 2, 2018, 3:12 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       --- Quote from: ScottKey link ---
       > No, it is clear enough.
       --- End Quote ---
       It doesn't hurt to add a sidebar, anyway.
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