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#Post#: 7565--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 9, 2021, 4:51 am
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I have no problem seeing how you get three rocket+strafe attacks
off, what I don't know is how you get additional strafing
attacks on top of that :-)
#Post#: 7567--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: May 9, 2021, 10:06 pm
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Occasional second strafes: some Hurricanes were able to skate
through with no air combat when both escorts rolled successful
reactions. One of those play-throughs was characterized by
highly Soviet-friendly dice. An outlier. A couple of 100%
results inflicted a big swing too. Evidence that the scenario is
as dicey as it looks.
#Post#: 7569--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 10, 2021, 3:12 pm
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So we've had a bunch more plays recently. A BUNCH:
Soviet Bombing: 16 + 2 + 16 + 20 + 10 + 16 + 2 + 20 + 48 + 40 +
12 = 18.3 VPs
German Losses: 3 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 2.4
VPs
Soviet Losses: 12 + 5 + 7 + 12 + 8 + 6 + 19 + 13 + 13 + 12 + 14
= 11.0 VPs
This gives us a mean output of +9.7 VPs, which sits above the
currrent draw window. However, we can see how much the results
are skewed by some real blowout plays. The results from plays so
far are:
Forrest 1: +7 = Draw
Forrest 2: +0 = German Victory
Forrest 3: +11 = Soviet victory
Forrest 4: +12 = Soviet Victory
Forrest 5: +2 = German victory
Dave 1: +13 = Soviet victory
Dave 2: -16 = German victory
Scott 1: +10 = Soviet victory
Dave 3: +37 = Soviet victory
Dave 4: +27 = Soviet victory
Elias 1: +1 = German victory
This gives us a Soviet result of 6W, 1D, 4L so far. The results
lean Soviet, particularly thanks to the blowout ground attacks.
I could adjust the draw window to +9 to +11, which would shift
the results to 4W, 2D, 5L. But I'm sitting on the fence on that
one right now.
#Post#: 7571--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: May 13, 2021, 12:36 am
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OK, I slipped in one more play of this one. But that's all. I'm
already into a playing of Condition Very Red.
Scenario: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
Version: v0.3
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: The Soviets had one Green fighter squadron. The
Germans used the (optimal) dual split, but didn't tally till
Game Turn 2. The Soviets had one successful reaction and a
dogfight. The other Germans used head-on attacks to avoid other
reactions. One Hurricane squadron slipped by without air combat,
so it could attack the trucks twice. That lucky second run, with
guns only, made the difference. The Germans rolled poorly for
cohesion, while the Soviets rolled well against one of the
trucks.
50% J0 trucks = 3 hits rocket and guns
0% = 0 hits rocket and guns
10% of rockets and guns = 1 hit
100% = 2 hits guns only
Victory: J0 trucks crippling damage = 16 VP
K0 trucks Minor damage = 4 VP
Soviet fighter kills 1 VP
German fighter kills 9 VP
21 - 9 = 12, solid Soviet victory, felt like a marginal Soviet
victory or a tie.
Recommendations: The Soviets seem favored. German performance
has to be near-perfect from the start. If not, then the Soviets
may or may not open a lead depending on the bombing dice. More
nearly average strafing luck would have yielded 8 + 4 VP for
bombing, for a net +4, a close German victory.
#Post#: 7572--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 13, 2021, 2:58 am
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This does suggest I shift the draw window up slightly to benefit
the Germans.
#Post#: 7573--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 13, 2021, 1:37 pm
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Scenario: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
Version: v0.3
Players: Elias Nordling (solo)
The Soviets set up the escorts not in formation with the
Hurricanes, and intended to use them for strafing too. In the
end, only one got one pass. The hurricanes only got one pass
each too, but one lucky roll saved their day. The Germans had
some horrible cohesion and combat rolls, but somehow made up for
it in three good combat rolls that brought the losses to where
they seem to usually end up in this scenario.
Rocket+strafe: 25%
Disrupted green yak strafe: 0
Rocket+strafe: 50%
Disr rocket+strafe: 100% (roll of 11)
Final score:
Soviet: Bombing 32, no Germans shot down
Germans: 4 Hurricanes, 5 yaks: 9
TOTAL: 23 SOVIET WIN
Comment: if the final strafe had been one less, the score would
have been 15.
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