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#Post#: 7531--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: April 26, 2021, 12:30 pm
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Scenario: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
Version: v0.3
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: The Soviets assigned Green crews to two
fighter-bomber squadrons and one escort. Risky? Upon initial
tally the Germans split both squadrons to spread out their
attacks before the Soviets could make their bomb run, time being
short. The Soviets got lucky with a successful reaction by a
Green Yak squadron and two blown cohesion rolls by the German
hotshots. While the Germans were down to two intercepting
flights, the Soviets over-struck the near trucks, dealing
Cripling damage. That, mixed air-to-air combat results, and
poorer than average German cohesion rolls decided the game.
Bombing: rockets and guns on trucks K0 25% = 2 hits
rockets only on trucks K0 10% = 0 hits
guns and rockets on trucks K0 50% = 3 hits
Crippling damage, 16 VP per SSR
strafing trucks J0 guns only 0% = 0 hits
The other Hurricanes with remaining ammo were Broken and could
not strafe.
Victory: Soviet bombing 16 VP
Soviet kills 3
German kills 6
net +13, solid Soviet victory
Recommendations: This is apt to be a dicey scenario. The Soviets
have some choices about aircrew assignment, while the Germans
have to pick an opening gambit based on how many splits they'll
use. Despite the outcome this time, I think splitting both
German squadrons makes sense. My recommendation at this point is
to log more complete games and have a look at the outcomes. I
would not make any changes to lengthen or shorten the
approach-to-target part of the game. The current setup puts the
Germans under significant but not prohibitive time pressure. I
will run it a few more times with varied German plans.
#Post#: 7537--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: April 28, 2021, 1:41 pm
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Scenario: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
Version: v0.3
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: Soviet plan: no Green fighters, be sure to rocket
both Trucks.
German plan: Split maximally upon tally. Hope to inflict poor
cohesion rolls against the Hurricanes before they strafe.
The Soviets managed one successful and one late reaction. Late
reactions aren't very effective with rigid doctrine. One Yak
squadron broke early. Two German flights broke, and two stayed
in the game all the way, with time to farm VPs from RTB
Hurricanes and Yaks after the strafing runs. Shooting rockets
only to conserve ammo for a second strafing run served the
Soviets poorly: the 10% results with rockets yielded zero hits.
Guns + rockets at 10% round up to 1 hit. Gun-only strafing was
ineffective this time. Flak was totally ineffective against
friend and foe. Poor Soviet strafing (nothing better than 10%,
with two out of three squadrons Broken before they could strafe)
plus good German shooting turned this playing into a
turkey-shoot.
bombing
strafe trucks
0% = 0 hits
0% = 0 hits
10% = 0 hits
rockets only on trucks
10% = 0 hits
rockets only on the trucks
10% = 0 hits
guns and rockets on trucks
10% = one hit
Victory: Soviet bombing 2VP
Soviet kills 1 VP
German kills 19 VP
net -16, ridiculous German victory, and it felt that way
Recommendations: Using the same plan as last time, when they
lost badly, the Germans cleaned up with a plan that emphasized
large numbers of cohesion rolls by Soviets. Soviet luck,
meanwhile, was very bad, though a better targeting plan could
have gained them some VPs against the trucks. Conclusion: Yep,
this scenario is as swingy as we'd expect. I'll try some
different plans for both sides in another playing or two. I
think there is some scope here for player skill, but much of the
competitive thought here will go into setting up the opening
gambit. After that, the dice will have a large influence.
#Post#: 7541--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: April 30, 2021, 9:28 am
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I see that the Bf 109F-4 has the Gun Pods ability. There's no
special rule prohibiting them, but since the order of battle
doesn't specify Bf 109F-4/R1, should we infer that the Germans
may not carry gun pods in this scenario? Or does 13.5.6 let the
Germans use them because the ability is on the front of the ADC?
#Post#: 7546--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 3, 2021, 12:12 pm
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The back of card text for the Bf 109F-4 is that the R1 is an
'also depicts', which means we have no subvariants and the
player can decided whether or not to use Gun Pods.
#Post#: 7547--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 3, 2021, 12:18 pm
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Okay, another run past the numbers, after plugging in the last
three plays:
Soviet Bombing: 16 + 2 + 16 + 20 + 10 + 16 + 2 = 11.7 VPs
German Losses: 3 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 2.6 VPs
Soviet Losses: 12 + 5 + 7 + 12 + 8 + 6 + 19 = 9.8 VPs
This gives us a mean output of +4.5 VPs, below the current draw
zone. Though this result is certainly influenced by Dave's
blowout second play. If we removed that from the mean output
looks more like +7.8. The results from plays so far are:
Forrest 1 = Draw
Forrest 2 = German Victory
Forrest 3 = Draw
Forrest 4 = Soviet Victory
Forrest 5 = German victory
Dave 1 = Soviet victory
Dave 2 = German victory
I propose no further changes to this scenario at this time,
though I want Elias to try and break it.
#Post#: 7554--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Scott Spencer Date: May 4, 2021, 12:01 pm
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Sorry got a late addition to the count:
Soviet Bombing 20VP, Fighter kills 3VP.
Germans 13 Fighter Kills(2 Yaks, 11 Hurricanes)
+10 Final, Russian Victory.
#Post#: 7556--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: May 4, 2021, 3:46 pm
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Scenario: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
Version: v0.3
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: This time the German plan was to carry gun pods and
stay in full squadrons, hoping to break enemy squadrons in one
or at most two combats. They were thwarted by bad German luck,
good Soviet luck, and good Soviet play. The German wing leader
blew his tally roll on turn 1, wasting a turn. On turn 2 both
escorts (one of them Green) rolled successful reactions, keeping
the Germans off the Hurricanes. One German squadron broke early.
The Soviets distributed their munitions efficiently and rolled
one 100% result, ending up with Fatal Damage on both trucks. The
resulting lead was insurmountable.
Bombing:
100% = 6 hits on trucks J0
10% = 1 hit (guns and rockets) K0
10% = 0 hits (guns) K0
25% = 2 hits (guns and rockets K0)
100% = 2 hits (guns) Crippling Damage
50% = 1 hit (guns) for, yes, Fatal Damage
Victory:
Soviet VP bombing = 48 VP
Soviet kills 2 VP
German kills = 13 VP
net 37, revolutionary Soviet victory, which is how it felt after
that 100% rocket/strafing run
Recommendations: None, really. Treat this result as an extreme
outlier. This is what happens with a near-perfect luck for one
side and perfect-storm luck for the other. Of course, gambling
on gun pods makes things riskier for the Germans.
#Post#: 7557--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: May 4, 2021, 7:31 pm
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Scenario: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
Version: v0.3
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: Tried this one more time, perhaps to see more nearly
average results. Again, the Germans try gun pods and no splits.
This time the Soviets have one successful reaction, while the
other escort is forced to tally and defend because the German
could force a head-on attack on the middle Hurricane squadron.
Soviet bombing was good once again, with Crippling damage on
both trucks.
Bombing (all on trucks):
K0 guns and rockets 50% = 3 hits
J0 guns 10% = 0 hits
J0 guns and rockets 25% = 2 hits
K0 guns and rockets 10% = 1 hit
J0 guns 100% = 2 hits
K0 guns and rockets 50% = 3 hits
Victory:
Soviet bombing = 24 + 16 = 40 VP
Soviet kills = 1 VP
German kills = 12 VP
net 27, resounding Soviet victory
Recommendations: The scenario seems fine. The German gambit
staying in full squadrons doesn't pay off that well. Even one
successful reaction, sans dogfight, gives the Soviets time to
get somebody onto the targets unopposed. But that's tactical
advice, not a recommendation for tinkering with the scenario.
#Post#: 7559--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 7, 2021, 2:09 pm
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So let me break the scenario fo you...
Well, not exactly break, but I have no idea how you manage to
get so many attacks on the trucks. Since air combat uses up
ammo, all the germans have to do is to split into flights and
engage everyone, which should be a given at least by the same
turn as the first bombing and possibly earlier, and the Soviets
will get just one Rocket+gun attack, as the ammo will then be
used up.
Given the occasional flak result, the occasional green crew and
the occasional cohesion hit, there will be 3 rocket+gun attacks
total on the trucks, with an average modifier of +2. This will
give an average of 7,5 hits on the trucks, 16 points on average.
The one variable is the remaining unengaged fighter. It might be
worth strafing with it rather than try to engage the Bf109s, but
I tried for escort reaction in my game and got a late reaction.
At first the Germans couldn't hit a thing. In the first 4
combats, the only loss was a Bf109. The Germans had good
cohesion rolls, however, and the Hurricane farming went well
over time. The Soviet rocket attacks were slightly below
average, so one truck got 3 hits, the other 4.
Final score:
Soviet: Bombing (4+2)x2, +3 Bf 109: 15
Germans: 11 Hurricanes, 3 Yaks: 14
German win
Felt like Draw
Comment: Assuming average luck and at least one strafing attack
by an escort, the Soviets can expect to get 16 points from
bombing. The Germans seems to be fairly consistent in getting
+11 fighter kills, which suggests 5 should be the middle of the
draw range to me.
#Post#: 7564--------------------------------------------------
Re: D02 Loudly Flows the Don
By: Okmed Date: May 8, 2021, 4:39 pm
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Elias, you're not wrong. The way I managed to get two gun +
rocket attacks a couple times was through buying the strafers a
turn free of air combat with successful escort reaction rolls.
That meant by the time the strafers got to the trucks, they were
marked only Ammo -1, so they could each fire off one of the
superior combined gun + rocket attacks, with 50% results
yielding three hits.
After trying intercepting as both squadrons and as flights, I
agree that the best German gambit is probably to split both
squadrons and pile on the strafers. They might also try
assigning at least one flight to interfere with the escorts.
Rolling for successful, not late, reaction is pretty much the
only useful thing the Yaks can do. But if they manage that, it's
a powerful way to waste the Germans' time. Of the two "official"
tests I've done with the Germans double splitting, one worked
well for them and the other failed because of extreme dice-rolls
throughout the scenario breaking in the Soviets' favor.
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