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#Post#: 7272--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Forrest Speck Date: December 28, 2020, 2:41 pm
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S06
v 1.3
Solo
Romanian vets in 109 with experte and IAR squadron.
Soviet vets in Sturmoviks.
2 height errors
FLAK- effective, shot down 3 x Sturmoviks; affected some
bombing and strafing runs
BOMBING- trucks, 6 hits, 12 VP
flak- 5 hits, 2 VP
14 VP
LOSSES- 4 x Sturmovik
2 x La5
2 x Yak9
8 VP
1 x 109
4 x IAR
5 VP
VICTORY- 19-8 for +11; for a draw. Felt like a draw, trucks
were hit hard, losses might be a little high for the Soviets.
Scenario looks like it skews a little towards the Soviet way
after 4 plays.
#Post#: 7277--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 29, 2020, 4:43 am
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Okay, let's total Forrest's four plays.
Soviet Bombing = 14 + 10 + 13 + 14 = mean 12.75 VPs
Romanian Losses = 5 + 6 + 9 + 8 = mean 7.0 VPs
Soviet Losses = 9 + 1 + 3 + 5 = mean 4.5 VPs
Interestingly, only the Soviet Losses are seriously swingy,
suggesting a scenario that's mostly won in the air. The mean VP
output is +15.25 VPs, well above our draw window.
Results are:
Forrest 1 = +10 (Draw)
Forrest 2 = +15 (Soviet victory)
Forrest 3 = +19 (Soviet victory)
Forrest 4 = +11 (Draw)
I think we may need to try shifting the draw window to +12 to
+14, and then get some more plays to see if that works.
Thanks, Forrest. Can I ask you give S15 Home Islands a play now?
I'll get someone else to give us a couple more plays of this and
see if it shifts the averages.
#Post#: 7324--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Elias Nordling Date: January 5, 2021, 10:15 am
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v2.0
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
The Romanians had a bad day, losing 4 fighters and breaking
without causing a single loss, with a disrupted bomber squadron
as consolation prize. Then, when they had already lost, they
evened the score. The Soviets ignored the final Iar81 flight
that then managed to down 2 Sturmoviks, and the Soviets also
lost 2 aircraft in pursuit of broken squadrons. After that, they
left the fleeing Romanians (which now included the flight)
alone.
The bombing and strafing passes went decently well and included
a fighter squadron, but caused 2 more casualties to the
attackers.
SCORE
Soviet: Bombing 13, 4 fighters: 17
German: 4 Sturmoviks, 2 fighters: 6
TOTAL: 11 Romanian win
Comment: My concern is now that with the current score levels,
winning as the Soviets is a tall order even if the Romanians bug
out. Flak can be counted on to cause at least 2 losses, which
means the Romanians will have to cause max damage on the trucks,
at least 2x damage on either the troops or the flak, and at
least one damage on each of the other targets, and that is
assuming the flak doesn't cause more than two casualties.
#Post#: 7325--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Elias Nordling Date: January 5, 2021, 10:35 am
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I decided to play out the Romanian bug out strategy. With
fighters doing flak suppression first, I managed to score 20
points for bombing, and lost 4 aircraft to Flak. 16 points was a
Soviet win. Rolls felt average. I guess the Soviets risk a draw
with this strategy, but a Romanian win is not likely. So i'm OK
with the score level after all. I wouldn't want the VP window to
go even higher though, or the Romanians won't bother to fight.
#Post#: 7326--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 5, 2021, 12:09 pm
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So let's throw in Elias's recent two plays.
Soviet Bombing = 14 + 10 + 13 + 14 + 13 + 20 = mean 14.0 VPs
Romanian Losses = 5 + 6 + 9 + 8 + 4 = 0 = mean 5.3 VPs
Soviet Losses = 9 + 1 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 4 = mean 4.6 VPs
With this change the mean VP output is +14.7 VPs, still above
our draw window.
Results are:
Forrest 1 = +10 (Romanian victory)
Forrest 2 = +15 (Soviet victory)
Forrest 3 = +19 (Soviet victory)
Forrest 4 = +11 (Romanian victory)
Elias 3 = +11 (Romanian victory)
Elias 4 = +16 (Soviet victory)
#Post#: 7327--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Elias Nordling Date: January 5, 2021, 1:06 pm
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I wouldn't count the last one, as it didn't involve the Romanian
air force, it tried extreme tactics.
#Post#: 7330--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 6, 2021, 3:15 am
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I still see extreme tactics as interesting data. Particularly
when it concedes a win.
#Post#: 7332--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Elias Nordling Date: January 6, 2021, 3:32 am
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In this case, though, it was the Romanians who lost by using
extreme avoidance tactics.
#Post#: 7333--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Elias Nordling Date: January 6, 2021, 3:38 am
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v2.0
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
Another playthrough, with fairly similar flow to the last one
(not using Romanian bug-out). The most notable event was two
Yaks dogfighting the Bf109, and breaking, meaning the Bf109 was
the sole remaining fighter. It hit one of the Sturmoviks at the
+4 column +1 for experte... and rolled snake eyes. The
Sturmoviks in turn rolled boxcars, shooting down 2 BF109s. It is
easy to see this combat resulting in one downed Sturmovik
instead, shifting the score 3 in favour of the Romanians.
The Flak killed 3 Sturmoviks, but again, even though the
Romanians failed to impact the bombing or even get an even score
in air combat, they did prevent the fighters from strafing which
is reason enough to engage.
SCORE
Soviet: Bombing 14, 4 Aircraft shot down: 18
Romanians: 4 Sturmoviks, 2 fighters: 6
Score: 12 DRAW
#Post#: 7336--------------------------------------------------
Re: S06 Last Hunters
By: Elias Nordling Date: January 7, 2021, 11:16 am
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v2.0
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
Another fairly similar playthrough. This time the Romanians
didn't catch many breaks. Air combat really didn't go their way
with an 11-5 loss ratio, including pursuit combat. The Soviets
used the sweep for strafing since it failed its tallies anyway,
and it was later able to take part in the pursuit of fleeing
fighters. One flak unit was suppressed and only one bomber was
shot down by flak.
Score:
Soviets: 16 points bombing, 11 fighters: 27
Romanians: 3 Sturmoviks, 3 fighters: 6
TOTAL: 21
Comment: This one the Romanians obviously did worse than they
would have if they had just ran away. The scores probably should
go up a bit, but I think 18 should still be a Soviet win.
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