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       #Post#: 515--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 8, 2018, 2:06 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       V0.8, with modified VC:s as per above.
       Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
       Since victory conditions steer the behavior, I thought I'd try
       the scenario with the ne victory conditions to see if it created
       any unexpected behavior. And, well, this was not the game to
       judge.
       The US failed the tally rolls with the wing, so one of its
       squadrons went steep angle bombing while the other two squadrons
       engaged the Japanese. they in turn ganged up into one big mob
       for combat. The reason they did this was, by turn 2, the US had
       already lost two fighters to Flak! The would go on to lose two
       more by turn 3. The air combat quickly turned irrelevant, as the
       US failed to score a single hit with the bombing and two
       strafings. Since the other two squadrons had jettisoned their
       bombs, the only way they could get the required point for
       bombing results would be to ignore the Japanese fighters and
       dive down to strafe while they still had ine increment of
       ammunition left. The Japanese, in turn, could then just fly home
       with a safe loss margin. So the game was over by turn 3.
       I think the result would have been the same US defeat with all
       the previous iterations of the Victory conditions too.
       I'm beginning to think the best US strategy might be to bomb
       with everyone. Sure, you give the japanese the altitude
       advantage, but at least they cannot gang up on any fighters
       remaining high while the other US squadrons are unable to
       interfer.
       #Post#: 516--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 8, 2018, 2:33 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       V0.8, with modified VC:s as per above.
       Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
       Another extremely short playthrough. I think I've found a flaw
       in the victory conditions.
       The US all bombed. The Japanese all failed their tally rolls.
       The US are now on the deck, the Japanese high above, out of
       tally range, unable to throw a new vector, while the US fighters
       fly off into the sunset with their VP for the bombing, without
       any air combat having happened.
       If the Japanese had anticipated this and placed a low vector,
       there is still a fair chance that the US fighters could get a
       clean break. Also, the US player sees the Japanese vector before
       rolling for tallies and can adjust the plan accordingly, instead
       bouncing the Japanese fighters with altitude advantage.
       Adding another victory condition that the US can't win unless
       they shoot down Japanese fighters won't work, because we are
       then back to the Japanese winning by running away.
       What is it with this scenario making it SO hard to fix?
       I think it might be better to go back to a setup where tallies
       are almost guaranteed, as failed tallies make the scenario far
       too swingy.
       I'm not sure the VP cap for the airfield serves its purpose. I
       feel leaving a reduced force high is worse than abandoning the
       altitude advantage, and there is a real chance of busting the
       bombing if you bomb with just one squadron, so you might as well
       bomb with everybody right away anyway.
       A potential, but not very clean fix to the VC:s above:
       1 point if the US scores at least 2 hits on the airfield.
       (reducing the requirement so that one 25% bombing hit is enough)
       1 point if the US scores 12 hits against the airfield (this is
       probably only realistic if the Japanese run away, so it prevents
       that)
       1 point if the US shoots down 3 more (rather than 5 which I
       think is too steep) aircraft than the Japanese shoots down.
       1 point if the US shoots down at least 2 Japanese fighters.
       -1 point if the Japanese shoots down at least 3 US fighters.
       The US now need 2 points to win. 1 point is a draw.
       It feels awkward, but I think it forces both sides into air
       combat.
       #Post#: 517--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 9, 2018, 2:20 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       What if we were to give the high Japanese a free tally at the
       start?
       I'd like to suggest a special rule like 'the first Japanese
       tally attempt of the first turn is automatically successful'.
       #Post#: 519--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 10, 2018, 12:32 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I think that only reinforces the fact that it is best to
       bombwith all the US fighters on turn 1.
       #Post#: 520--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 10, 2018, 2:36 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I'm not convinced. Looking at the set-up I can see options, not
       least that I may well want to split one or more of the high
       squadrons, particularly if it has a veteran. A split would at
       least permit me to send a flight down, and with your earlier
       victory conditions, three hits seems entirely do-able, even with
       flights.
       #Post#: 521--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 10, 2018, 3:26 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Yes, but the problem is that if you send some of the fighters
       down to bomb while others remain high, the Japanese can stay
       high with all fighters. The bombing fighters are more or less
       out of the game while the Japanese have numerical superiority.
       The only real somution to this that I see is to keep the US
       fighters together by diving with all of them. The Japanese will
       then have an altitude advantage, but at least that goes away
       once they engage, giving the US fighters a chance to make a
       comeback.
       #Post#: 522--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 11, 2018, 2:00 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I’m kinda seeing this as part of the puzzle. However you do the
       scenario, you have to send  someone down to bomb. The call is
       whether you risk being at a disadvantage to the defenders by
       sending everyone down.
       Something we haven’t talked about, and I think we should, is the
       opportunities for using the ‘take a 7’ optional rule on p45 of
       the rulebook.
       The base modifiers for a steep diving attack from altitude 1 are
       +1. Veterans bump this to +2. So a single squadron will score 3
       hits. The thing that can shift this down is flak mods, or the
       results of a bad flak cohesion roll.
       If we suggest in the special rules that the optional rule is
       recommended, then assigning veterans to the low P-51 almost but
       not quite guarantees 3 hits. But that also forces the initiative
       back to the high P-51s, as I see it.
       #Post#: 527--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: Gordon Christie Date: November 11, 2018, 6:01 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       My sense is that the current VPs will work.On every one of 8
       plays (VASSAL against Andrew of FtF with lee) so far if the
       Japanese engage with advantage (essentially as the attacker)
       they would have won (shooting down at least 3 US fighters &
       avoiding a US victory margin of 3 or more)-if the US send
       everyone down the Japanese engage with advantage &
       will-likely-win; the US need to stay high with at least some
       ,fighters to prevent this. The combat outcome difference between
       speed (+2 to the US) vs turning (0) is huge & the Japanese have
       a reasonable chance of generating dogfights if they are diving
       to attack Mustangs which are not diving making most of the
       combats 0 (allowing for veterans etc shifts it slightly to the
       US but not by much).
       I think the current victory conditions are simple, challenging
       for both sides & cannot obviously be gamed. They also reflect
       history reasonably well- I like the encouragement for the US not
       to lose too many aircraft.
       It's also good that there are plenty of choices & options for
       both sides-this will bear repeated replay without becoming stale
       IMHO.
       Cheers
       Gordon
       #Post#: 533--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 12, 2018, 2:08 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Gordon: If the US player stays high with some units, I would
       concentrate on them as the Japanese ignoring the low fighter and
       get the advantage I need anyway. If the US all dive down AND the
       Japanese have vectored for a high attack, failing to roll tally,
       the US can then exit the map without combat.
       I think this would be a good time for a PBEM game of this
       scenario to see how outr different solutions to this puzzle
       match up.
       #Post#: 534--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E13 Desperate Improvisation
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 12, 2018, 3:25 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Check out the change to the latest version of the scenario. This
       uses the first iteration of your scoring.
       The intersting thing here is that with the Japanese getting an
       auto-tally, they can always follow the Americans down if the
       Americans let them. I'm not sure if this is a good idea, because
       when I tried that against Gordon, I found myself vulnerable to
       defending against Japanese attacks, and on defence the P-51s are
       very vulnerable.
       There's an interesting puzzle here.
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