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#Post#: 7263--------------------------------------------------
Re: S13 Plastering Ploesti
By: Okmed Date: December 25, 2020, 11:28 am
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I had assignments for both this scenario and S05 Foul-up Over
Wewak. Long story short: I wrapped a test of this one before
seeing "I'm putting this one to bed now." Anyway . . .
#Post#: 7264--------------------------------------------------
Re: S13 Plastering Ploesti
By: Okmed Date: December 25, 2020, 11:30 am
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Scenario: S13 Plastering Ploesti
Version: v1.6
Player(s): Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: USAAF Veterans are in the first two bomber squadrons.
The sweeps were missing the action, so they strafed, attempting
unsuccessfully to suppress the Hvy Flak: 100%, 50%, 0%, 25%,
total 4 hits. The US had decent escort reaction and the Romanian
at-start interceptors broke early. Otherwise air-to-air results
were a mixed bag, mediocre for both sides. The Axis did, though,
manage to at least disrupt all the fighter-bombers, so no bonus
10 VP for the US. Flak scored no kills (except one blue-on-blue
against an IAR.81C).
Bombing on the Factory:
0% broken Vet squadron (average dice would have yielded 10% = 1
hit)
10% = 1 hit (average dice would have yielded 25% = 3 hits)
10% (average dice would also yield 10%) = 1 hit
0% (average dice would have been 25% = 3 hits)
pretty miserable bombing altogether
Results: Bombing minor on Hvy Flak = 2.5 VP
slight on Factory = 1 VP
kills by USAAF = 15 VP
US 18.5
kills by the Axis = 15 VP
net 3.5 --> definitive Axis win, which feels exactly appropriate
Exiting one unbroken/undisrupted squadron would have won it for
the US.
Recommendations: After reading the thread here and playing v1.6,
my main comment is: good scenario. It has lots of variables, and
both sides have interesting decisions. In this playing, the
decision was in doubt for 11 of the 12 turns. The Axis have to
decide how to divide their effort between approach and egress.
The US has to choose a bombing profile and whether to try to
evade the Lt Flak, but I think an optimum US plan for the
fighter-bombers is emerging: Don't worry about the Lt Flak
because it will probably barrage anyway, and go for steep-angle
bombing. But target selection, what to do with the sweep
squadrons, and the usual game of chicken with the escorts all
remain variable. Which is to say, I think this scenario is
pretty well immunized from perfect-plan-itis.
#Post#: 7273--------------------------------------------------
Re: S13 Plastering Ploesti
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 29, 2020, 3:45 am
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So, doing due diligence on the plays since the last tot-up,
let's throw the numbers for the last three plays in:
American Bombing - 6 + 24 + 6 + 15 + 6 + 17 + 27 + 6 + 4 = mean
12.3 VPs
American exit bonus - 0 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 =
mean 3.3 VPs
Axis Losses - 15 + 11 + 15 + 14 + 5 + 16 + 14 + 7 + 15 = mean
12.4 VPs
Allied Losses - 22.5 + 16.5 + 24 + 15 + 21 + 22.5 + 27 + 27 + 15
= mean 21.1 VPs
This extra data shifts the mean results to +6.9 from +9.6, a
drop of 2.7. If I was to drop the draw window by 2 to +6 to
+8.5, we'd get the following results:
Results so far are:
Gordon/Andrew 2 = -1.5 (Axis Victory)
Forrest 1 = +28.5 (American Victory)
Forrest 2 = +7 (Draw)
Jean 1 = +24 (American Victory)
Forrest 3 = -10 (Axis victory)
Forrest 4 = +11.5 (American victory)
Jean 2 = +14 (American victory)
Jean 3 = -14 (Axis victory)
Dave 1 = +4 (Axis victory)
This gives us overall Allied results of 4W 1D 4L, which looks
balanced enough to me.
So I shall adjust the draw window slightly and call this one
done.
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