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#Post#: 7214--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: Okmed Date: December 20, 2020, 2:11 pm
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Scenario: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
Version: v1.1
Player(s): Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: This is the alternate course of action from my report
posted 12/15, not an entirely fresh playing. After the US had
rolled well bombing the Airfield, the other two B-24 squadrons
aborted and returned to base. The story picks up here with those
bombers continue to the target. Air-to-air had a few extreme
results: An unassisted B-24 squadron killed 2 Oscars in one
combat. A P-47 with an Experte bagged 3 Tonys in one combat.
Flak was not effective, but at least it lucked out of inflicting
blue-on-blue losses. Bombing by the second pair of bomber
squadrons was:
25% on flak for 3 VP and suppressed
0% on the airfield for zilch (average would have been 25% for
four more hits for another 10 VP)
Results:
US bombing 23 VP
US fighter kills 10
Japanese bomber kills 6
Japanese fighter kills 2 VP
net 25, whomping US victory
Recommendations: This is still not a comprehensive test of
balance, but so far I see a pro-US tilt. I acknowledge Scott
showed how average bombing could have yielded a Japanese win.
The good bombing results I had gave the US an early leg up in my
playings. Still, the Japanese fighters, with their low
firepower, have to engage the bombers as much as possible and
hope to roll sixes for hit confirmation. Japanese flak is happy
to shoot direct fire at the risk of friendly casualties, because
they need all the shots they can get on the bombers. The numbers
(probabilities) were against the Japanese all the way.
#Post#: 7215--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: Scott Spencer Date: December 20, 2020, 2:48 pm
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Scenario: S05 Foul-Up Over Wewak.
Version: v1.1.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(solo)
Report: Right side Japanese Oscars tallied right away, left side
Tony's rolled ones. One P-47 attacked the Tony's and broke on
first combat. Other P-47 with Experte attacked an Oscar
squadron and downed 6 over a couple of turns. Bombers downed
one Oscar and Japanese barrage flak downed two more. Japanese
flak was just effective enough, preventing the B-24s from
getting ten bomb hits, disrupting two squadrons.
Victory: US - Nine fighters(9VP) and nine bomb hits(6VP) for a
total of 15VP. Japanese - Three bombers(9VP) and one
fighter(1VP) for a total of 10VP. 15 -10 = +5VP. Japanese
victory. Felt like Draw.
Recommendations: One more bomb hit would have put this in Draw
territory. None at this time.
#Post#: 7216--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 20, 2020, 5:16 pm
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Two more plays to add to the aggregate (even if one of them was
an alternate course of action):
American Bombing - 1 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 23 + 6 = mean 15.0 VPs
Japanese Losses - 6 + 9 + 15 + 7 + 10 + 9 = mean 9.3 VPs
American Fighter Losses - 2 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 = mean 1.3 VPs
American Bomber Losses - 9 + 9 + 15 + 9 + 6 + 9 = mean 9.5 VPs
These extra two plays barely shift the needle. The new mean is
+13.5.
Results so far are:
Elias 1 = -3 (Japanese Victory)
ScottS 1 = +20 (American Victory)
Dave 1 = +18 (American Victory)
ScottK 1 = +16 (American Victory)
Dave 2 = +25 (American Victory)
ScottS 2 = +5 (Japanese Victory)
#Post#: 7237--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: ScottKey Date: December 21, 2020, 11:38 pm
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Lee
You have the total vp for my play wrong. It was a net +16 vp US
win.
#Post#: 7238--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 22, 2020, 2:55 am
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Roger that! I have now corrected it.
#Post#: 7244--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 23, 2020, 5:30 am
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I'm going to adjust the draw window to +11 to +15. Because I
need other scenarios testing I'm going to call this done. Please
finish up any plays in progress and then move on.
#Post#: 7268--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: Okmed Date: December 26, 2020, 9:03 am
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Scenario: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
Version: v1.1
Player(s): Dave Demko (solo)
Last report on this one, I guess, tossed through the transom.
Narrative: The Japanese did everything right in the air, though
the flak was ineffectual (no kills, no bombing mods, one
disruption, one blue-on-blue straggler). Initial Japanese tally
rolls were mediocre, two successes in four attempts. Still, the
interceptors set up two bounces and some head-on attacks against
the B-24Ds, achieving five kills in all. Unassisted bombers shot
down two fighters. Bombing was excellent, yielding overkill on
the Airfield. The P-47s did well against the Oscars but could
not sweep and tally well enough to engage the Tonys. This
playing stayed fun because the Japanese seemed to have a chance
to catch up.
Bombing results were 10%, 50%, 25%, 25% for 22 Hits total on
the Airfield. Average dice on those bomb runs would have yielded
10%, 10%, 0%, 10% for 6 hits.
Results:
US for bombing: 30 VP
US for kills 9 VP
Japanese for bomber kills: 15 VP
Japanese for fighter kills: 0 VP
net 24 --> crushing US victory
Crippling damage would have been a close US victory.
Major damage would have been a Japanese victory.
This one felt like a US victory, but a close one because of the
bomber losses.
Recommendations: Balance is not as skewed as my playings
suggest. Again my bombing was quite good, pushing the result
well into US victory territory, despite reasonably good shooting
by the Japanese, who do seem to have a difficult job generating
adequate kills. Their better than average air-to-air luck from
this game, coupled with utterly average bombing, would have
yielded a close Japanese win, appropriately. My few playings
suggest a slight bias in favor of the US. I agree with the shift
in the draw window. I also agree with not nerfing the bombers.
Let them roll for hits and see what happens. The workload for
this scenario is fairly low, so an occasional swingy outcome is
not a great loss of players' time.
#Post#: 7275--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 29, 2020, 3:59 am
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So, doing due diligence on Dave's final play, we get:
American Bombing - 1 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 23 + 6 + 30 = mean 17.1
VPs
Japanese Losses - 6 + 9 + 15 + 7 + 10 + 9 + 9 = mean 9.3 VPs
American Fighter Losses - 2 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 0 = mean 1.1
VPs
American Bomber Losses - 9 + 9 + 15 + 9 + 6 + 9 + 15 = mean 10.3
VPs
The new mean with this data is: +15.0 vice the previous +13.5.
Given this shift I feel the need to adjust a fraction in favour
of the Japanese, to the value of +2.0, and shift the draw window
to +13 to +17. This changes the plays as follows:
Results so far are:
Elias 1 = -3 (Japanese Victory)
ScottS 1 = +20 (American Victory)
Dave 1 = +18 (American Victory)
ScottK 1 = +16 (Draw)
Dave 2 = +25 (American Victory)
ScottS 2 = +5 (Japanese Victory)
Dave 3 = +24 (American victory)
This gives the Americans a win record of 4W 1D 2L. Arguably
still boased in favour of the Americans, but I can live with it.
Particularly as one of the Yank 'W's was on the edge of being a
'D'. Let's make the change and put this to bed.
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