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       #Post#: 7214--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: Okmed Date: December 20, 2020, 2:11 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       Version: v1.1
       Player(s): Dave Demko (solo)
       Narrative: This is the alternate course of action from my report
       posted 12/15, not an entirely fresh playing. After the US had
       rolled well bombing the Airfield, the other two B-24 squadrons
       aborted and returned to base. The story picks up here with those
       bombers continue to the target. Air-to-air had a few extreme
       results: An unassisted B-24 squadron killed 2 Oscars in one
       combat. A P-47 with an Experte bagged 3 Tonys in one combat.
       Flak was not effective, but at least it lucked out of inflicting
       blue-on-blue losses. Bombing by the second pair of bomber
       squadrons was:
       25% on flak for 3 VP and suppressed
       0% on the airfield for zilch (average would have been 25% for
       four more hits for another 10 VP)
       Results:
       US bombing 23 VP
       US fighter kills 10
       Japanese bomber kills 6
       Japanese fighter kills 2 VP
       net 25, whomping US victory
       Recommendations: This is still not a comprehensive test of
       balance, but so far I see a pro-US tilt. I acknowledge Scott
       showed how average bombing could have yielded a Japanese win.
       The good bombing results I had gave the US an early leg up in my
       playings. Still, the Japanese fighters, with their low
       firepower, have to engage the bombers as much as possible and
       hope to roll sixes for hit confirmation. Japanese flak is happy
       to shoot direct fire at the risk of friendly casualties, because
       they need all the shots they can get on the bombers. The numbers
       (probabilities) were against the Japanese all the way.
       #Post#: 7215--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: Scott Spencer Date: December 20, 2020, 2:48 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: S05 Foul-Up Over Wewak.
       Version: v1.1.
       Playtester:  Scott Spencer(solo)
       Report: Right side Japanese Oscars tallied right away, left side
       Tony's rolled ones.  One P-47 attacked the Tony's and broke on
       first combat.  Other P-47 with Experte attacked an Oscar
       squadron and downed 6 over a couple of turns.  Bombers downed
       one Oscar and Japanese barrage flak downed two more.  Japanese
       flak was just effective enough, preventing the B-24s from
       getting ten bomb hits, disrupting two squadrons.
       Victory: US - Nine fighters(9VP) and nine bomb hits(6VP) for a
       total of 15VP.  Japanese - Three bombers(9VP) and one
       fighter(1VP) for a total of 10VP.  15 -10 = +5VP.  Japanese
       victory.  Felt like Draw.
       Recommendations: One more bomb hit would have put this in Draw
       territory.  None at this time.
       #Post#: 7216--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 20, 2020, 5:16 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Two more plays to add to the aggregate (even if one of them was
       an alternate course of action):
       American Bombing - 1 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 23 + 6 = mean 15.0 VPs
       Japanese Losses - 6 + 9 + 15 + 7 + 10 + 9 = mean 9.3 VPs
       American Fighter Losses - 2 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 = mean 1.3 VPs
       American Bomber Losses - 9 + 9 + 15 + 9 + 6 + 9 = mean 9.5 VPs
       These extra two plays barely shift the needle. The new mean is
       +13.5.
       Results so far are:
       Elias 1 = -3 (Japanese Victory)
       ScottS 1 = +20 (American Victory)
       Dave 1 = +18 (American Victory)
       ScottK 1 = +16 (American Victory)
       Dave 2 = +25 (American Victory)
       ScottS 2 = +5 (Japanese Victory)
       #Post#: 7237--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: ScottKey Date: December 21, 2020, 11:38 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Lee
       You have the total vp for my play wrong. It was a net +16 vp US
       win.
       #Post#: 7238--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 22, 2020, 2:55 am
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       Roger that! I have now corrected it.
       #Post#: 7244--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 23, 2020, 5:30 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I'm going to adjust the draw window to +11 to +15. Because I
       need other scenarios testing I'm going to call this done. Please
       finish up any plays in progress and then move on.
       #Post#: 7268--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: Okmed Date: December 26, 2020, 9:03 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       Version: v1.1
       Player(s): Dave Demko (solo)
       Last report on this one, I guess, tossed through the transom.
       Narrative: The Japanese did everything right in the air, though
       the flak was ineffectual (no kills, no bombing mods, one
       disruption, one blue-on-blue straggler). Initial Japanese tally
       rolls were mediocre, two successes in four attempts. Still, the
       interceptors set up two bounces and some head-on attacks against
       the B-24Ds, achieving five kills in all. Unassisted bombers shot
       down two fighters. Bombing was excellent, yielding overkill on
       the Airfield. The P-47s did well against the Oscars but could
       not sweep and tally well enough to engage the Tonys. This
       playing stayed fun because the Japanese seemed to have a chance
       to catch up.
       Bombing results were  10%, 50%, 25%, 25% for 22 Hits total on
       the Airfield. Average dice on those bomb runs would have yielded
       10%, 10%, 0%, 10% for 6 hits.
       Results:
       US for bombing: 30 VP
       US for kills 9 VP
       Japanese for bomber kills: 15 VP
       Japanese for fighter kills: 0 VP
       net 24 --> crushing US victory
       Crippling damage would have been a close US victory.
       Major damage would have been a Japanese victory.
       This one felt like a US victory, but a close one because of the
       bomber losses.
       Recommendations: Balance is not as skewed as my playings
       suggest. Again my bombing was quite good, pushing the result
       well into US victory territory, despite reasonably good shooting
       by the Japanese, who do seem to have a difficult job generating
       adequate kills. Their better than average air-to-air luck from
       this game, coupled with utterly average bombing, would have
       yielded a close Japanese win, appropriately. My few playings
       suggest a slight bias in favor of the US. I agree with the shift
       in the draw window. I also agree with not nerfing the bombers.
       Let them roll for hits and see what happens. The workload for
       this scenario is fairly low, so an occasional swingy outcome is
       not a great loss of players' time.
       #Post#: 7275--------------------------------------------------
       Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 29, 2020, 3:59 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       So, doing due diligence on Dave's final play, we get:
       American Bombing - 1 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 23 + 6 + 30 = mean 17.1
       VPs
       Japanese Losses - 6 + 9 + 15 + 7 + 10 + 9 + 9 = mean 9.3 VPs
       American Fighter Losses - 2 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 0 = mean 1.1
       VPs
       American Bomber Losses - 9 + 9 + 15 + 9 + 6 + 9 + 15 = mean 10.3
       VPs
       The new mean with this data is: +15.0 vice the previous +13.5.
       Given this shift I feel the need to adjust a fraction in favour
       of the Japanese, to the value of +2.0, and shift the draw window
       to +13 to +17. This changes the plays as follows:
       Results so far are:
       Elias 1 = -3 (Japanese Victory)
       ScottS 1 = +20 (American Victory)
       Dave 1 = +18 (American Victory)
       ScottK 1 = +16 (Draw)
       Dave 2 = +25 (American Victory)
       ScottS 2 = +5 (Japanese Victory)
       Dave 3 = +24 (American victory)
       This gives the Americans a win record of 4W 1D 2L. Arguably
       still boased in favour of the Americans, but I can live with it.
       Particularly as one of the Yank 'W's was on the edge of being a
       'D'. Let's make the change and put this to bed.
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