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#Post#: 6922--------------------------------------------------
S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 15, 2020, 3:51 am
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G&A's first post on this:
Moving on to Foul up over Wewak...first run as written:
USAAF 6 bombers lost No fighters 5 hits on AF
IJAAF 14 fighters
USAAF 14 +5 (AtG)---> 19
IJAAF 18
Nett -1
IJAAF win
Not unreasonable. Significant USAAF bomber losses; many IJAAF
fighter losses but probably not historically incredible whereas
USAAF losses would have been unusually high. Its an interesting
mix of aircraft & clearly demonstrates the superiority of the
P-47 against even the best the IJAAF could muster at this stage
in the war. When we initially tested it I felt it didn't quite
work compared to the narrative-though i didn't quite see how to
fix it &, although it felt OK on this occasion, a lot seems to
depend on the P-47s getting the required RTB rolls whilst
circling otherwise they would simply float on past most of the
time. Once they RTB they immediately dive into the action
(though this time one squadron nearly missed the fun due to a
sequence of low tally rolls...) which feels a bit gamey. The
separate B-24 groups criss crossing over the target also didn't
seem to fit.
We're going to try a slightly modified setup this evening & I'll
let you know how it goes.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 6923--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 15, 2020, 3:51 am
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This evening's run at modified Foul up over Wewak:
Changes:
B-24s start in I8, J8 (facing R); R9,S9 (facing L)
P-47 enter GT 2 in adjacent squares alt 12 or more at least 2
squares away from any Japanese squadron (having played it this
way I checked Wolf's book on 5th Fighter Command afterwards &
the 2 348th FG squadrons involved appear to have operated
independently so the adjacent squares restriction might not be
wholly necessary, might save page space & give the US player
more options to let them enter separately).
Ki 43s in I11, H10 Ki 61s in P10, O11 All IJAAF fighters facing
R
Wispy cloud deleted K7-O7 (gives the flak & bombers a clear
run)
Airfield & flak in M0
Results:
IJAAF 4 fighter losses
USAAF 3 bombers 2 fighters 7 hits on AF
VP
IJAAF +11
USAAF +14
IJAAF win Felt right
I wasn't actually sure this was going to work but it all seemed
to fit into place pretty well. The Japanese fighters get a free
pass (assuming reasonable tallies) on GT1 but the bombers are
tough & the fighters are 1 FP. 1 bomber went down & 2 stragglers
after the first pass though the 2 left hand B-24s were
disrupted. 1 Tony squadron failed its tally & vectored to O11
where it (entirely by accident...) complicated the P-47s task
significantly. The other Japanese fighters managed to down 2
B-24s on GT2-3 unmolested by the P-47s, losing 1 to return fire
& 1 to flak then broke. The high Tonys went into a Lufbery,
holding off one P-47 squadron for 2 losses each while the other
P-47s spectacularly failed to tally anything until the last when
they picked up the disrupted Tonys which had left their Lufbery
& were stalking the bombers. The Tonys ran away rather than face
the wrath of the P-47s, saving the bombers from a final attack.
Good bombing rolls redeemed the poor bomber cohesion rolls for 7
hits & 10 VP. Sorces vary but this seemed to be very close to
the historical result (I think 3 B-24s fro a couple of IJAAF
fighters; I don't think any P-47s were lost-though the Japanese
obviously claimed some:-))
This fits the narrative much better we felt. Slightly scripted
but there are possibly more choices there than first appears.
I'd certainly be inclined to vector a Japanese squadron towards
N11-O11 as top cover knowing the p-47s are on the way if I
played it again. The Japanese have to think carefully about how
to use flak-there is a choice in the first couple of turns
between leaving the fighters to have a go & risking
fratricide..).
VP thresholds feel about right but Beta should inform that more.
We're happy with this in modified form at Alpha (slightly to our
surprise as this worked better than expected). If desired we
could have another go but it might be worth seeing what Elias
thinks.
Now back to The Secret Horsepower Race (which does indeed seem
to be rather good:-))
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 6924--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 15, 2020, 3:52 am
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Oh also SSR2 & 3 can go but the P-47s can set up facing either
way.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 6928--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 15, 2020, 4:43 am
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Okay, I shall make the changes. I'll ask Elias to look at this
once he's done with Kursk Counterattack.
#Post#: 6961--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: Elias Nordling Date: November 17, 2020, 1:51 pm
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1.1
Player: Elias Nordling
A small, very dicey scenario depending on a few rolls. the
Japanese had so so tally rolls turn 1 and got to attack 2
bombers. One of the Japanese fighters never saw a bomber before
being bounced by P47s. The thunderbolts blew their bounce but
the Japanese broke nevertheless. The other P47 attacked Ki43:s
attacking bombers, and the Ki43 choose a more even dogfight over
being harrassed by the P47:s in future combat rounds. The Flak
managed to disrupt a bomber and generally prevent good results,
only 10% bombing damage was scored, and the Japanese were
reasonably successful in air combat.
Final score:
US: Bombing 1+6 ftrs: 7
Japan: 3 bombers, 2 ftrs: 8
Total -1 massive Japanese win
Felt like one
Comment: This is going to swing heavily on the bombing rolls,
but can't we have that just this once? I think it actually adds
to the narrative here, we tend to nerf the bombing rules quite
often, and it is so short that you could play it twice to see
how different things can turn out.
I think this one is fine as is, though obviously it needs some
scoring data.
#Post#: 6963--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 18, 2020, 1:14 pm
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Cool. Marking this Alpha and will move people on to get some
numbers.
#Post#: 7144--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: Scott Spencer Date: December 13, 2020, 4:39 pm
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Scenario: S05 Foul-Up Over Wewak.
Version: v1.1.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(solo).
Report: Japanese all spotted on turn one and were able to engage
the bombers but were not terribly effective, downing three
bombers for the loss of three fighters to the bomber gunners.
P-47s arrived and were able to score six kills in two turns
before breaking. Flak impacted all 4 bombing attacks, with
three bombers only scoring two hits but the last bomber scored
ten.
Victory: Allies - Nine points for downed fighters plus twenty VP
for twelve bomb hits. Japanese - Nine VP for three bomber kills.
29 - 9 = 20VP. American Win. Felt like American win.
Recommendations: I like this scenario - short and quick to
action. My initial hunch is to give the Japanese a Veteran or
two but I need a few more plays on this to see.
#Post#: 7162--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: Okmed Date: December 15, 2020, 11:12 pm
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Scenario: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
Version: v1.1
Player(s): Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative
The bombers start so close to the target that the Japanese have
little time to protect the airfield. They'll have to make up
their VPs by shooting up bombers on egress. The bombers will
have to make a decision about how to exit: all from one edge, or
split up?
The Japanese opt to use DF flak on GT 2, so they post no barrage
at the end of GT 1. But the flak was ineffective, inflicting
only one cohesion check all game. The US bombers running away
gave the flak very few opportunities.
After dealing heavy damage to the airfield on GT 2, the US had
the remaining two bomber squadrons jettison and run away, all
bombers exiting right.
One P-47 squadron failed three tally attempts, and both had some
poor combat table rolls: "The USAAF can't shoot." Still, the
P-47 with the Experte piled up kills, even blowing the Ki-61
flight completely out of the sky. The Japanese amassed bomber
kills that threatened to turn the US decision to turn back half
its bombers into a costly mistake, but the P-47s were able to
gain back enough VPs in air-to-air combat for a comfortable win.
If the Japanese had rolled more than two successful tallies on
GT 1, they could have won. They might also have won with one
more bomber kill plus only average luck on the US cohesion
rolls, which were better than average in the endgame during VP
farming against broken Japanese squadrons.
Bombing
Two undisrupted squadrons level-bomb the Airfield, both with -1:
*** 2d6 = 5,5 *** <Okmed>
*** 2d6 = 6,6 *** <Okmed>
25%, 50% = 5 hits + 10 hits = crippling damage
Scenario Results
US bombing 20 VP
US kills 14 VP
Japan bomber kills 15 VP
Japan fighter kills 1 VP
net +18, solid but not overwhelming US win
Recommendations: Consider whether to start the left-side bombers
a bit further away from the target so they bomb on GT 3. That
might not be called for, but consider it in case balance seems
to tilt toward the raiders. Right now I'd say balance leans
toward the American, who won despite one fighter squadron
missing a few turns of fighting. Also, the raiders won this one
the hard way, foregoing two bombing attacks, though minimizing
the bombers' exposure. The Japanese did enjoy some unopposed
attacks on bombers, and they did have a realistic chance of
stealing the win from the Americans despite the highly
successful first pair of bomb runs. This is my first run of the
scenario, so the recommendations are tentative.
#Post#: 7186--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: ScottKey Date: December 18, 2020, 2:16 pm
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Scenario: S05 Foul Up Over Wewak
December 18, 2020
Version: 1.1
Playtesters: Scott Key, solitaire
Report:
- Game lasted 6 turns
- There were two height error at set-up
- GCI changed a vector 3 out of 4 attempts
- Both Ki-43 sqns had height errors and one had a second height
error when placing anew vector through GCI. This put him deep in
cloud.
- One of the Ki-43 sqns was never able to make a tally (see
above)
- The first bombing B-24 squadron rolled a 12 doing 10 hits to
the Airfield which pretty much decided the game given all the
other trouble the Japanese were having.
Flak Summary:
- Direct Flak scored 3 hits downing 1 B-24 and straggling 1 B-24
- Direct Flak caused 2 cohesion hits resulting in one broken
B-24 sqn
Bombing Summary:
- x3 good order B-24 sqns bombed for 17 damage (50%/10%/25%);
x1 Broken B-24 sqn bombed for 0% hits
- If all bombers had rolled 7s then 6 hits would have been
scored giving the USAAF +5 vp for bombing.
USAAF: x5 Ki-61 downed: +5 vp; x2 Ki-43 downed: +2 vp;
Crippling damage to the factory: +20 vp= +27 vp
IJAAF: x2 P-47 downed: -2 vp; x3 B-24 downed: -9 vp= -11 vp
Victory:
Total: +16
Recommendations:
- None at this time
- If the bombing rolls had been 7s the Japanese would have had a
solid win. So the scenario seems balanced.
- I’ve always enjoyed this scenario, clouds are meaningful, good
choices
#Post#: 7200--------------------------------------------------
Re: S05 Foul-up Over Wewak
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 20, 2020, 4:42 am
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So let's aggregate the results of the last four plays:
American Bombing - 1 + 20 + 20 + 20 = mean 15.3 VPs
Japanese Losses - 6 + 9 + 15 + 7 = mean 9.3 VPs
American Fighter Losses - 2 + 0 + 1 + 2 = mean 1.3 VPs
American Bomber Losses - 9 + 9 + 15 + 9 = mean 10.5 VPs
This gives us mean results of +12.8.
Results so far are:
Elias 1 = -3 (Japanese Victory)
ScottS 1 = +20 (American Victory)
Dave 1 = +18 (American Victory)
ScottK 1 = +24 (American Victory)
The intersting thing here is that in three plays the Americans
got amazing bombing roills to win them the scenario. I suspect
the actual mean result over more runs is smaller. A couple more
plays of this are necessary.
FYI I noticed Elias miscounted the bomber VP on his run,
assigning them 2 VPs each rather than 3. I've corrected this.
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