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#Post#: 6670--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: pilotofficerprune Date: October 2, 2020, 3:25 am
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So here's the mean numbers so far from five tests:
Bomber exit - 31 + 33 + 27 + 30 + 30 = mean 30.2
German losses - 19 + 16 + 8 + 15 +18 = mean 15.2
British losses - 19 + 18 + 33 + 19 + 18 = mean 21.4
Other than the German losses this is looking a lot less swingy.
Mean outputs are 24.0. I might need to nudge the draw window
slightly, but we're in a good place.
#Post#: 6671--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: Forrest Speck Date: October 2, 2020, 2:52 pm
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Game 2
v0.2
Solo
1 height error
Brit vets in sweeps and and an escort
German greens in 109's and trail FW 190
Experten in lead 109, FW190
BOMBERS- 1 broken, 1 disrupted, 4 exited unscathed for 28 VP
LOSSES- 2 x Halifax
1 x P-51
7 VP
7 x 109
10 x FW 190
17 VP
VICTORY- +38 for massive Brit win, felt like massive Brit win
P-51's were on fire, didn't miss much. German didn't hit
hardly at all, except for 1 heroic FW190, which broke 2 P-51
flights and 1 Halifax squadron. Not much went wrong for Brits
this game.
#Post#: 6674--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: pilotofficerprune Date: October 3, 2020, 3:44 am
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So after six tests we have:
Bomber exit - 31 + 33 + 27 + 30 + 30 + 28 = mean 29.8
German losses - 19 + 16 + 8 + 15 + 18 + 17 = mean 15.5
British losses - 19 + 18 + 33 + 19 + 18 + 7 = mean 19.0
The change to British losses means that mean outputs are now
26.3. This would suggest nugding up the draw window by around 4
or so, and narrowing the window to 25 to 28. That would mean the
outputs of recent scenarios would be:
Dave 1 - +31 British Victory (no change)
Dave 2 - +31 British Victory (no change)
Dave 3 - -5 German Victory (no change)
Pete 1 - +26 Draw (was marginal British victory)
Forrest 1 - +30 British victory (no change)
Forrest 2 +38 British victory (no change)
I notice that even with this change the scenario leans heavily
British. I’d like to see another play from Pete before I make
any calls on balance, but the Germans seem to be doing poorly
overall.
#Post#: 6683--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: pilotofficerprune Date: October 4, 2020, 3:38 am
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On reflection I shall change this scenario's victory levels into
a 26-30 VP draw range. This moves a couple of the previous
British wins into the 'D' column.
#Post#: 6695--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: Forrest Speck Date: October 5, 2020, 4:51 pm
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v 0.2
Solo
Brit vets in sweeps and top escort
German vet i lead FW-190; greens in 109's and trail FW-190
Experten spread out
No height errors
BOMBERS- 1 x broken, 1 x disrupted and 4 exited without mishap
28 VP
LOSSES- 4 x Halifax
6 x P-51
18 VP
5 x 109
15 x FW 190
20 VP
VICTORY- 48-18, +30 VP for a draw
I tried to overwelm the escorts and a couple of
FW 190 units got through. 4 Halifaxes is the most I've even been
able to to get, but German losses were pretty high. Felt like a
draw.
#Post#: 6697--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: pilotofficerprune Date: October 5, 2020, 4:59 pm
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Thanks, Forrest. I'm gonna move you on to Apache Marauders now.
I'll wait on Pete's next play and unless that really upsets the
numbers I shall probably mark this beta.
#Post#: 6711--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: pilotofficerprune Date: October 10, 2020, 4:35 am
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Pete, are we waiting on a play from you?
#Post#: 6756--------------------------------------------------
Re: S34 Counterblow
By: pilotofficerprune Date: October 18, 2020, 3:33 am
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I haven't heard from Pete, so I'm declaring this scenario at
Beta. Pete, if you see this, I'd like to move you onto the new
version of S19 Asso di Bastoni.
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