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#Post#: 5433--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: May 15, 2020, 4:58 pm
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Okay, so let’s figure your plays into the numbers so far:
German bombing - 12 + 15 + 3 + 6 = mean 9.0 VPs
Yugoslav losses - 13 + 11 + 7 + 8 = mean 9.75 VPs
German losses - 18.5 + 22 + 20.5 + 17 = mean 19.5 VPs
This gives us a mean VPs output of -0.75.
Recent results have been:
Elias 3 - +6.5 Draw (perceived Yugo win)
Scott 1 - +4.0 Yugo win
Forrest 1 - -10.5 Yugo win
Forrest 2 - -3 Yugo win
In Forrest’s plays the German bombing has been poor by
comparison with previous plays. The impression I get is that
flak has been doing well enough to neutralise the bombing. Do
Elias or Scott K have any thoughts as to what Forrest should do
to improve the German chances? Focus on Flak suppression,
perhaps?
#Post#: 5436--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: Forrest Speck
Date: May 15, 2020, 10:36 pm
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I am going to have another go at this, I think I may have come
up with something for the Germans.
#Post#: 5438--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: Elias Nordling
Date: May 16, 2020, 12:58 am
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Just a check rhat you aren't missing that the Yugoslav Bf109s
have firepower 0 and protection 3. Becase that makes a huge
difference.
I'd be happy to play the Germans against you PBEM to see if I'm
doing the execution differently.
#Post#: 5443--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: Forrest Speck
Date: May 16, 2020, 9:52 am
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I've been remembering the firepower and protection for the
E-3's. I will give it one more go and then if I can't get the
Germans to do better, I would be happy to play PBEM.
#Post#: 5449--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: Forrest Speck
Date: May 16, 2020, 12:36 pm
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Game 3
v 0.5
Solo
German vet in Ju-87 and experte in top 109 squadron.
Vet and experte in Hurricane, green in Hurricane
FLAK- ineffective, wiped out in turn 3 by Stuka
(helped by a roll of boxcars)
BOMBING- 6 vps on FLAK, 24 vps on factory
30 vps
LOSSES- 1 x Do 17
1 x 109
3 points
1 x IK-3
4 x E-3
4 x Hurricanes
9 points
Victory- 39-3 for +36 (massive German victory-
felt like massive German victory)
Everything that went wrong for the Germans the
first game went right this game. Germans only missed 1 tally
roll on turn 1. Yugos only made 1 tally roll on first turn. I
may have been overly concerned with the Hurricanes coming in on
turn 3 with the Germans the first two games. This time max
effort to tie up the E-3's before worrying about the Hurris.
German top 109 pounced the annoying IK-3 on turn 1 and were able
to break it on turn 2 allowing that squadron to be in position
on turn 3 for the Hurris. 110 escort made a late reaction and
were able to get 2 E-3's and forcing them to break.
What really made this even more lopsided was FLAK
missing on the first Ju-87 squadron, and a high roll wiped out
the FLAK. This allowed the second Ju 87 (with the veteran) bomb
the factory with a +5 mod. The Do 17's and 111's managed 4 hits
on the factory for an extra 12 VP.
Not sure what to recommend now, it may be just
extreme luck on all 3 games and poor German play the first two.
I will give this one more go and see what happens.
#Post#: 5451--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: May 16, 2020, 1:08 pm
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It could be that this is a scenario that swings wildly on a
couple of key moments. Let's see your next play and see where
that goes.
#Post#: 5452--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: Forrest Speck
Date: May 16, 2020, 3:11 pm
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Game 4
v.05
Solo
German vet in Ju 87, experte in top 109.
Yugoslav vet and experte in Hurricane, green in
trailing E-3 (still thinking where the green should go)
FLAK- ineffective, wiped out by Ju 87 first
squadron.
BOMBING- 6 VP on FLAK unit, another 12 VP on the
factory. Level bombers were hitting more this game as the flak
was suppressed. 18 points
total.
LOSSES- 3 x 109
1 x Ju 87
2 x Do17
8 points
5 x E-3
1 x Hurricane
6 points
VICTORY- 24-8 (+16 German- felt like German win)
Germans only missed 1 tally, Yugoslavs
only made 1 tally on first turn. Escort was effective albeit
with 1 late reaction this time. The German squadron with the
experte never saw combat, missed the first tally roll, I gave it
a RTB order and it never tallied anything on the way back. This
scenario seems to come down to tally rolls and FLAK rolls, I did
have one Hurricane come in close to the Ju 87's this time as
opposed to the back door. Did get the second Ju 87 to disrupt,
but it still managed 2 hits on the factory.
I have no idea what to recommend on
this one, it may need a set of fresh eyes.
#Post#: 5453--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: pilotofficerprune
Date: May 16, 2020, 4:14 pm
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Okay, so fitting the last two plays into the mix we get:
German bombing - 12 + 15 + 3 + 6 + 30 + 18 = mean 14.0 VPs
Yugoslav losses - 13 + 11 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 6 = mean 9.0 VPs
German losses - 18.5 + 22 + 20.5 + 17 + 3 + 8 = mean 14.8 VPs
This gives us a mean VPs output of 8.2, which is right in our
current draw zone.
Recent results have been:
Elias 3 - +6.5 Draw (perceived Yugo win)
Scott 1 - +4.0 Yugo win
Forrest 1 - -10.5 Yugo win
Forrest 2 - -3 Yugo win
Forrest 3 - +36 German win
Forrest 4 - +16 German win
My feelings are that this one is clearly very swingy. Bombing
can get really wild and games may hinge on a few critical die
rolls. But perhaps that’s what this scenario is. I’m not sure
what additional data will give us, so I’m inclined to accept the
scenario and mark it as beta.
Thanks, Forrest for all your plays of this. I think it's time to
move you on. Could you please give L09 Valentine’s Day Massacre
a run of three plays?
#Post#: 5454--------------------------------------------------
Re: L05 Operation Retribution
DIR By: Forrest Speck
Date: May 16, 2020, 4:48 pm
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Yes, been awhile since I played Pacific.
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