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#Post#: 4662--------------------------------------------------
Re: L09 Valentine's Day Massacre
By: pilotofficerprune Date: March 5, 2020, 10:00 am
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At the end of alpha the VP outputs for this one are:
American bombing VPs - 0 + 5 = mean 2.5 VPs
Japanese losses VPs - 8 + 4 = mean 6 VPs
American losses VPs - 7 + 14.5 = mean 10.75 VPs
This gives us a mean of -2.25 VPs. If American losses
consistently outpace their bombing and victories, we should
consider reversing the victory calculation so that Americans
subtract from Japanese and set the draw window around +1 to +4.5
VPs.
For Scott's last two plays this would have yielded results of:
Scott 1 = -1 American victory (was American victory, perceived
as a draw)
Scott 2 = +5.5 Japanese victory (was American victory,
perceived as a draw)
I'll make the change and then we'll test the thing in beta and
try to grab more data. My Spidey-sense suggests my changes are
about right, but we need validation.
#Post#: 5470--------------------------------------------------
Re: L09 Valentine's Day Massacre
By: Forrest Speck Date: May 17, 2020, 9:53 am
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Game 1
v0.5
Solo
2 veterans in the bombers, 1 veteran and experte
in trailing P-38, experte in Corsair.
1 veteran and experte each in 204 and 253
Kokutai, green in trailing Zero.
FLAK- nothing shot down, a couple of cohesion
checks and 1 straggler which was converted into a kill in AtA.
BOMBING- 2 hits on Aux for 4 points.
LOSSES- 8 x Zero
8 points
4 x B-24
1 x PBY
1 x P-38
1 x P-40
17.5 points
VICTORY- 17.5 -12, +5.5 points for Japanese
victory, felt like Japanese victory
The B-24 flight was eliminated,
the PBY loss was caused by a flak straggler and then had 3
Japanese squadrons chasing it down at the end of the game to get
it for the win. One Japanese squadron was responsible for all 5
bomber losses. The last combat had 3 hits on the PBY. All they
need is a 3 to bring it down. A 1 rolled, then a 2, before a 3
was finally rolled. The Corsairs with an experte were as good as
advertised, however they didn't hang around too long. P-38's and
Corsairs with experte make me think of a Pacman just munching
the Zeros up (showing my age here).
No reommendations at this time,
looks the victory spread is right on. Will play through 1 more
time.
#Post#: 5475--------------------------------------------------
Re: L09 Valentine's Day Massacre
By: Forrest Speck Date: May 17, 2020, 1:13 pm
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Game 2
v.05
Solo
Japanese veteran and experte one each in the
higher end wings, green in trailing Zero squadron.
American vets in bombers, a veteran and experte
in trailing P-38, experte in Corsair.
FLAK- more effective for Americans than Japanese,
knocking down 2 Zeros. Japanese were behind and I felt the need
to risk it to get after the bombers. Did inflict a -1 to one
bomb run.
BOMBING- 7 points for 4 hits on the Aux, 2nd
bomber whiffed.
LOSSES- 4 x PBY
3 X B-24
1 X P-38
1 x P-40
23.5 points
15 x Zeros
15 points
SCORE- 23.5-22 +1.5 for a draw (felt like a draw,
although if there's such a thing as Pyrrhic draw, this is it.)
Good bombing results, Corsairs were
a beast, although 2-3 times they rolled 1's that would have been
kills with any other roll. One Japanese with vet/experten didn't
get into combat until the last 2-3 turns of the game. The
squadron did pull the fat out of the fire at the end with a
lucky tally roll to be able to nail the last PBY for 3 points.
If not for that, it would have been an American victory. Zeros
without experte have a rough time knocking down bombers. Good
scenario!
Nothing to recommend, this seems to me
good to go.
SCORE
#Post#: 5479--------------------------------------------------
Re: L09 Valentine's Day Massacre
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 17, 2020, 2:13 pm
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Adding in Forrest’s plays the VP outputs for this one are:
American bombing VPs - 0 + 5 + 4 + 7 = mean 4.0 VPs
Japanese losses VPs - 8 + 4 + 8 + 15 = mean 8.75 VPs
American losses VPs - 7 + 14.5 + 17.5 + 23.5 = mean 15.6 VPs
This gives us a mean of 2.85 which ir right in the middle of the
draw zone. Despite escalating casualties this is looking solid.
The last four plays are:
Scott 1 = -1 American victory (was American victory, perceived
as a draw)
Scott 2 = +5.5 Japanese victory (was American victory,
perceived as a draw)
Forrest 1 = +5.5 Japanese victory
Forrest 2 = +1.5 Draw
This is looking like we can sign it off as beta, no further
changes for now. Good work!
Forrest, could you please move on to L10 Battle of the Bismarck
Sea? Three plays, if possible?
#Post#: 5482--------------------------------------------------
Re: L09 Valentine's Day Massacre
By: Forrest Speck Date: May 17, 2020, 2:21 pm
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Yes, been looking at that one.
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