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#Post#: 4195--------------------------------------------------
L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 31, 2019, 2:58 am
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This is a thread stub.
#Post#: 4312--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Gordon Christie Date: January 19, 2020, 6:34 am
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Andrew & I have had an alpha test run through this one and are
happy with it as it stands.
Fun scenario, played close to the historical narrative but
didn't feel too scripted. The Japanese have some choices about
how to use their fighters (stay high & try & deal with the P-38s
or try & vector down against the low bombers) & there is an
interesting strafing/ bombing sub game as the US need to flak
suppress the right hand destroyer & hit the transports hard with
an adequate but not overwhelming force to achieve something
close to the historical outcome. The US need to really maximise
points from bombing/ strafing & their are some interesting
choices there, especially if the Japanese fighters come down &
increase the pressure by forcing additional cohesion rolls.
The IJN lost 13 fighters (including 3 shot down in one turn by
some remarkably good defensive gunfire from a B-25 squadron-good
narrative:-)) against 1 fighter & 6 bombers (all twin engined)
for the US. 1 transport was fatally damaged (14 hits) & one
heavily damaged (5 hits) with 1 of the DDs heavily damaged (5
hits).
Final VP:
Japanese +13 (all AtA)
US 13 (AtA) + 33 (bombing)
Final score +33 which we felt was a marginal Allied win (the
last bombing attack was a very helpful-to the Allies- DR of 12
which swung the outcome a long way...until that point it looked
like an Allied loss) which fitted exactly with the VP at
present.
Overall though we're happy at alpha test point.
No changes proposed.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 4314--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: pilotofficerprune Date: January 19, 2020, 7:56 am
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Thanks for that. can I ask you guys to take a punt at Clark
Field?
#Post#: 4315--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Gordon Christie Date: January 19, 2020, 8:18 am
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Will do.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 4387--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Okmed Date: February 2, 2020, 7:57 pm
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Scenario: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
Version: v0.1
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: The US assigned all possible veterans to bombing
sqauadrons, which turned out to be a good choice. The Zeroes on
CAP made good use of tally + free flying to avoid the high P-38
group, which blew its first tally roll. The Japanese went low to
go after the bombers, but some P-38s caught them, some in the
clouds, with predictable results: lots of lost Zeroes and broken
squadrons. Both sides opted not to split squadrons By the end of
GT 5 all fighters on both sides were broken. The Beaufighters
were tasked with the wild weasel mission, backed up by one or
more skip-bombers if necessary. The Beaufighters' two strafing
runs plus one pure strafe by the A-20s were enough to suppress
the flak on the DD in M0. The skip and level bombers hit the two
Aux targets, with the B-17s circling to see which target might
need the attention. So the level bombers attacked with almost
complete impunity; the B-17s got too far left and lost one
aircraft to direct fire flak from the DD in H0.
Recommendations: With the good flak suppression and favorable
air combat, the US looked like it was doing well. Still, I was
concerned they might not accumulate enough VPs for a win. But
crippling damage against one Aux sealed the outcome. The
scenario was interesting throughout. The Japanese were able to
avoid a simple collision of fighter wings, and they pretty
effectively got clear of half the US sweep for a turn or so. The
US was able to finesse their selection of bombing targets by
circling and sending just enough strafers against the M0
destroyer. It seemed like both sides had interesting choices to
make with their fighters; for example, splitting might have made
sense for both sides. My initial reaction is that this is a fun,
suspenseful scenario that will allow for varied tactics and good
replay prospects.
Victory: US 40 VP bombing + 10 VP Japanese losses
Japanese 9.5 VP US losses
net 40.5 VP = solid US win
#Post#: 4389--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: pilotofficerprune Date: February 3, 2020, 1:02 am
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I get the impression that the skip-bombing is a bit dicey. Could
you please give this another run and see if you get any wildly
different result?
#Post#: 4396--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Okmed Date: February 4, 2020, 4:19 pm
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[quote author=Lee Brimmicombe-Wood
link=topic=141.msg4389#msg4389 date=1580713376]
Could you please give this another run and see if you get any
wildly different result?
[/quote]
I have another playing of this started to try out some options.
Yes, in the playing I reported, the US did better than average
on bombing. Some of that was luck and some was suppressing the
right-side DD.
#Post#: 4398--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Okmed Date: February 5, 2020, 3:31 pm
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Just finished a second playing. I'll write up a proper report
once I harvest some details from the log. But for now I'll
simply report: YIKES!
net VPs = 58.5 for an epic Allied win
The dice for both flak and bombing were skewed way in favor of
the raiders.
I will go back and calculate what the damage "should" have been
with average dice rolls. Suffice to say this result is a
six-sigma kind of outlier.
Here's an excerpt from the skip bombing + strafing by the A-20Gs
and one of the B-25 gunships:
<Okmed> - Y and X skip-bomb/strafe K0
<Okmed> - +1 each
<Okmed> - Y
*** 2d6 = 6,5 *** <Okmed>
<Okmed> - 100% = 15 hits, oh for cripes sake!
* Bomb Load moves offboard -> offboard *
* Bomb Load moves offboard -> offboard *
* Hits 15 moves K0 -> offboard *
<Okmed> - and now W with the same attack
*** 2d6 = 3,2 *** <Okmed>
<Okmed> - 10% = 2 hits
#Post#: 4399--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Okmed Date: February 5, 2020, 3:56 pm
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Another over-the-top outcome resulted from a P-38 squadron
bouncing a flight of Zeroes. It was maybe the second time I've
ever seen the lower-right corner of the Air Combat Table. They
inflicted 6 hits for 5 kills against a 4-craft flight. Nothing
left in the sky except burning bits of aluminum confetti. The
match-up between the A6M2s and P-38s is an even starker contrast
than in the Rabaul campaign.
The results so far don't say much about the scenario's balance.
I can vouch for the fun. In my solo playing I managed some
blunders and clever surprises for both sides in the air-to-air
contest. There's lots of variability, though the Japanese have
to be clever and lucky to put much firepower on the bombers. I'm
going to give this scenario another shot, or at least
re-calculate the results with different dice rolls.
#Post#: 4400--------------------------------------------------
Re: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
By: Okmed Date: February 5, 2020, 10:53 pm
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Second playthrough
Scenario: L10 Battle of the Bismarck Sea
Version: v0.1
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: Both sides' initial plans included splitting
squadrons in the hope of covering the enemy fighters while
keeping some fighters unengaged. That worked with mixed results.
The Japanese wanted to tangle with the high bombers and tried to
set up a head-on pass against the B-17s. That didn't work out,
and there was no effective anti-bomber air combat, though most
of the P-38s broke. Zero losses were high. Meanwhile, the
Beaufighters [and ?] suppressed the flak from the M0 DD and then
the bombers got busy with the Aux targets. Once all the other
fighters had broken, a squadron of P-38s at Low Ammo -1 dropped
down to strafe the DD. Bombing was impressive:
Z [Beaufighter] strafes DD in M0
10% = 0 hits
V [B-25] level bombs DD M0
25% = 4 hits [suppressing the DD's flak]
X [B-25 gunship] bombs/strafes J0
25% of 18 = 5 hits
U [B-17] level bombs J0 with 0
25% of 19 = 5 hits
Y [A-20G] and W [B-25 gunship] skip-bomb/strafe K0
Y 100% = 15 hits, oh for cripes sake!
and now W with the same attack
10% = 2 hits
Y [A-20G] strafes an Aux +3
10% of 2 = 0 hits
W [B-25 gunship] strafes an Aux +3
100% of 2 = 2 hits
just enough for Fatal Damage
X [B-25 gunship] strafes DD M0 +2
25% of 2 still rounds to 1 hit
F [P-38] strafes DD M0 at +1
100% = 2 hits
bumped it up to Crippling Damage
The Japanese can't buy a break with ready yen.
Meanwhile Japanese flak was lackluster:
Hvy flak at E direct fire
whiff
Hvy Flak at Z direct fire
whiff
Hvy Flak direct fire Z +2
hit, tink [i.e. no damage]
direct fire flak at Z [Beaufighter] +2
2 hits, 2 kills
* *** Turn 5 Set-up Phase ***
Flak is down in M0 [the right DD]. Everybody go bomb.
barrage Z
Cohesion check, fine
barrage on X +1 for support from the DD
Cohesion check, fine
barrage on Y
whiff
barrage on w
Cohesion check, OK
barrage +1 on Y
whiff
barrage +1 W
whiff
barrage F
whiff
barrage X
whiff
Victory: Japanese 11 VP kills (4 from flak); Allies 14 VP kills,
10 VP DD hits; 42 VP Aux hits
That's Fatal damage to both Auxes and Crippling damage to one
DD.
net 55 VP, overwhelming Allied victory
Recommendations: Not much I would change, unless further testing
shows the scenario is too difficult for the Japanese. We have to
watch for that; surely the Japanese can do better than this
playing shows. Air combat offers lots of options and can
generate some wild brawls. The Japanese have the more difficult
air-to-air challenge. The bombing is mainly a puzzle for the
Allies to solve, and it's complex if not exactly abstruse. The
challenge for the Allies is racking up lots of victory points.
My two playings so far show that's eminently possible. Once flak
from the M0 DD is suppressed, it's not that difficult to harvest
VPs from the merchant shipping. To score very high, though, the
Allies need both efficient targeting and hot dice. The DD in H0
is mostly avoidable. In this playing it could have taken a shot
at the B-17 if it had not opted to put up a supporting barrage
over the Aux in J0. I think optimal Allied play will keep all
aircraft to the right of column J.
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