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#Post#: 5240--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 3, 2020, 2:37 am
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v0.2
Player: Elias Nordling (solo)
The Swedish air force managed to put heavy damage on the bridge,
but was eradicated in the process. The flak was a killer, taking
out at least 5 Swedish aircraft, and two germans for good
measure. Only one other German fighter was shot down. One
highlight was that both the J9 and the J20 managed to force the
German fighters into a dogfight. Didn't matter much as the
Germans get as much points for slaughtering Swedish fighters as
Swedish bombers, and anyway they refused to break. At game's
end, when the last Swedish bomber exited, the Germans still had
,5 suadron on the map. Bombing rolls were average but
inadequate, mostly due to successful flak.
Score:
Swedish: Bombing 11+3 fighters: 14
German: 2 J 11, 2 J 9, 5 J 20, 5 B 17, 6 B 5: 20
TOTAL: -6
GERMAN WIN
Felt like: German win
COMMENTS: My two impressions from this game was that the flak
dominated the situation too much, and that if the Germans roll
above average on cohesion, it's a massacre.
My original suggestion had Lt Flak A instead of Hvy Flak A, and
I think that will work much better.
I think it might be a good idea to put the CAP at fuel limits to
show it is about to be relieved. This will reduce the risk of
Germans never breaking.
I'd like to see the last German fighter barely missing the
bombing, and having the end game being an excercise in pursuit
and escape. Also, bombing the truck should be pushing the luck a
bit for the Swedes. So, I'd like to try with the following
changes:
Flak to lt.
Move German T3 reinforcement back to entering map edge.
Make CAP fuel limit.
Move truck to I0
Move Broken clouds from I2-J2 to J2-K2.
#Post#: 5241--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 3, 2020, 3:16 am
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Roger to all that. The changes just made it under the wire for
today's release.
#Post#: 5242--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 3, 2020, 3:23 am
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That was the idea :-)
#Post#: 5253--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Okmed Date: May 4, 2020, 1:05 am
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Scenario: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
Version: v0.4
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: New test today with v0.4. The Swedish plan was to
spend one bomb load suppressing flak and then bomb the brigde,
sending one bomber squadron after other targets, trucks if
possible, if the bridge was already at max VP yield. The first
two bombers descended and then flew glide-bombing profiles,
hitting the flak and bridge simultaneously. Both flak channels
missed, but bombing results were only 10%. German fighters left
room for the flak to engage the B5 squadron, which used
steep-angle attacks. The flak accounted for some kills but was
slightly below expected results for the whole game. German
fighters were another story, shooting well and rolling very well
for cohesion. the J11 escorts had enough ammo to try strafing
the trucks. That failed, but those popgun-armed fighters have
some chance of inflicitng one hit per strafing run. No other
strafing opportunities came up. German fighters were very
effective. The GT 3 Fw 190 squadron got into the fight and
helped farm VPs during the end game. The Germans blew the B5
squadron out of the air entirely, mostly on egress.
Victory: Germans inflicted 27 kills = 27 VP
Swedes inflicted 2 kills = 2 VP
slight damage on Hvy Flak = 1 VP
minor damage on tthe Bridge for = 5 VP
net: Crushing German victory
Recommendations: The Germans need to tally with the CAP squadron
on Turn 1 to have any chance of shooting up the bombers before
they run in on the near targets. That's a good thing because
those fighters are very effective. The initial setup looks good,
with the GT 3 German squadron timed about right. But the initial
moves can tip the game in a hurry. A lot depends on the initial
bombing results by the B17s. All I can say at this point is that
balance it touchy. If the Germans gain some positional advantage
and get ahead in air combat (more kills and fewer broken
squadrons) early, they have the power to start tearing things
up. Meanwhile, the Swedes have only three bomb loads to work
with. A bit of bad luck can tip the game against them seriously,
and strafing is not a high-value fallback plan. Recommendation
to myself: Try again. Don't bother with flak suppression till
the bridge has taken non-trivial hits.
#Post#: 5254--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Okmed Date: May 4, 2020, 1:13 am
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On thing to note about my latest report: It sounds like the flak
wasn't all that dangerous, but that's because it had somewhat
worse than average dice. It is a serious enough threat that the
Swedes feel some incentive to try suppressing it. If that
doesn't work, the B 5s still need to go after the money target,
regardless of flak. There's not that much flexibility in
targeting. If the initial run(s) on the bridge do well, it would
be nice to go after the trucks. It's an interesting set of
dilemmas, but the Swedes have very little wiggle room.
#Post#: 5255--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 4, 2020, 2:41 am
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Thanks for that, Dave. Useful data. I'm going to see how Elias
feels about the new version, as I think we're close to Alpha on
this and might well be asking you to do extra tests for Beta.
#Post#: 5280--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Okmed Date: May 6, 2020, 1:52 am
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Scenario: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
Version: v0.4
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: This time the Swedes went for maximum efficiency. One
B 17A circled in the cloud to watch the outcome of the first
one's strike on the bridge: 25% = 3 hits. The plan was to use
the B 5s against the trucks unless the bridge needed additional
tonnage on it, with the goal of not wasting bomb loads by
risking overkill. The second squadron achieved 10% = 1 hit, so I
sent the third at the Bridge, too. Yes, the flak is dangerous,
but so is flying over heavy flak and into the teeth of the
fighters to reach the trucks. The B17s approached through the
clouds and glide-bombed. The B 5s used steep-angle bombing. The
Germans tallied early with the CAP squadron, and that worked out
well. The Bf 109 squadron split, and both flights got broken in
short order, one by a successful escort reaction that kept the
B9s unscathed by fighters. Flak was effective. The late-arriving
Fw 190s found plenty of work farming victory points from bombers
on egress. The Swedish fighters did pretty well in air combat.
Toward the end of the game, after all bomb loads were expended
and the raiders were still behind on points, I sent the two
escort squadrons to strafe the trucks; each was at only Low
Ammo. Luck held, they inflicted 2 hits for 4 VP, probably more
than they'd have gained in air combat. But that did mean passing
up an attempt to fight and possibly break the Fw 190s that
inflicted several bomber kills. Well, it was a hail-mary. Maybe
I could have narrowed the margin by catching those fighters, but
probably at best for a drawn game.
Victory: Swedish VPs = 10 (Bridge) + 4 (Trucks) for bombing + 4
for kills = 18
German VPs = 15 for kills
net +3 for a resounding German victory
Recommendations: This scenario is a lot of fun. Resources on
both sides are so sparse that players can afford no waste.
Decisions about whether to split squadrons are subtle for both
sides. Making that initial tally attempt with German CAP
squadron is consequential. I realize how we arrived at the VP
cap for the bridge, and I like how that pressures the Swedes to
service multiple targets. But it also means the scenario is very
ticklish: one bad roll and the Swedes are in a VP hole that's
very hard to climb out of. Maybe the VP cap makes the
victory-needle too hard for the Swedes to thread. Here's how
that looked at mid-game (top of Turn 6 in an eleven-turn game):
<Okmed> - 13 VP - 7 VP: The Germans are winning.
<Okmed> - Even with 4 VP for the trucks, the Swedes would still
be behind.
<Okmed> - With a theoretical 8 for the trucks, that's 14 net for
a draw.
<Okmed> - They'd need triple points on the trucks--quite
possible [with bombing, not strafing alone]--for a narrow win.
<Okmed> - So I guess it's banzi time, try to shoot down Germans.
Not a high-probability approach, but otherwise it's a certain
loss for the Swedes.
I worked out the truck-strafing option rather than trying to
claw back points in air combat, but the point remains: It was do
or die time for the raiders, where "do" means do extremely well.
The second half of the game was an extended exercise in Swedish
fighters failing to catch Germans and Germans farming VPs from
Swedish bombers. The game was lost, and I did that only to
determine the final VPs. So if we don't want to rethink the VP
cap for the Bridge, since it's generally a good idea, then maybe
we need to work on the win/draw/loss brackets. Either that or I
suck at playing the raiders in this one. This time it felt like
the Swedes did a pretty good job, but the VP total showed them
getting pasted.
#Post#: 5282--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 6, 2020, 2:42 am
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Okay, so the design seems to be generating a lot of Swedish
casualties. Here’s the breakdown of the v0.4 tests so far:
Swedish bombing: 6 + 14 = mean 10.0
German losses: 2 + 4 = mean 3.0
Swedish losses: 27 + 15 = mean 21.0
Now bear in mind this has shifted from the v0.1 and v0.2
results, which were:
Swedish bombing: 16 + 28 + 23 + 12 = mean 19.75
German losses: 5 + 4 + 3 + 0 = mean 3.0
Swedish losses: 9 + 8 + 31 + 19 = mean 16.75
Now, it’s possible the first two v0.1 plays were outliers,
particularly on swedish losses. It looks like the trend is
toward high Swedish losses that outstrip the Swedish gains from
bombing and air-to-air.
Right now I’m thinking of dropping the draw window right to the
floor, so the Swedes have to get a low score for victory. But
what I need is:
(a) Elias’s test on v0.4 to get his thoughts on whether further
balance changes are needed to shift the air-to-air fight towards
the Swedes, and
(b) Further play data to balance these numbers
I’m guessing Elias will be able to get on this at the weekend.
Dave, can I ask you to hang fire until after Elias’s next
report? Then we’ll see what the next steps are. But if Elias
thinks there are no further changes I may ask you to do some
Beta plays to farm VP data.
#Post#: 5283--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Okmed Date: May 6, 2020, 9:59 am
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[quote author=Lee Brimmicombe-Wood
link=topic=137.msg5282#msg5282 date=1588750966]
I’m guessing Elias will be able to get on this at the weekend.
Dave, can I ask you to hang fire until after Elias’s next
report? Then we’ll see what the next steps are. But if Elias
thinks there are no further changes I may ask you to do some
Beta plays to farm VP data.
[/quote]
Sounds fine. Those last two playthroughs were a set to try
slightly different ideas. I don't feel the need for another test
right now.
#Post#: 5291--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Elias Nordling Date: May 7, 2020, 3:01 am
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v0.4
Player: Elias Nordling (Solo)
The cap ignored the fuel limits and hung around for a long time,
but other than that, it felt like most things went the Swedish
way this time. Of particular importance was that the Swedish
fighters often managed to tally the German fighters before the
Germans could tally the bombers. The late-arriving fighter was
even broken before being able to engage the bombers. The B5 was
thus able to bomb the trucks undisturbed.
Score:
Swedish: Bombing 18+3 fighters: 21
German: 1xJ 11, 3xJ 9, 4xB 17, 1xB 5: 9
TOTAL: 12
GERMAN WIN
Felt like: Swedish win
COMMENTS: Ideally, I want this scenario to be a choice for the
swedes. Blow the bridge and hope for a successful disengagement,
or risk higher losses and push for the trucks. So, heavy damage
on the bridge and a negative loss ratio of -4 should be a
Swedish win. Interestingly, if we double the point value for the
bridge, this would mean a score of 16, which is exactly the
current Swedish win level.
There is room for interesting and unusual tactics here. The
Swedish will probably need to use the clouds and the escape
rules to get out, and benefit from forcing head-on attacks that
will cause German cohesion checks but fewer losses. The Germans
might need to be defanged slightly more.
SUGGESTED CHANGES:
Double the VP for bombing the bridge.
Have the T3 reinforcement enter at altitude 4 (to effectively
put it one more suare away).
Remove the German experte.
Switch FW190s for Bf109:s and vice versa. That is, the CAP and
T3 Reinf are Messerschmitts and the CAP Relief is a Focke-Wulf.
I think that should make the Germans slightly less lethal.
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