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#Post#: 4520--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Okmed Date: February 15, 2020, 10:18 am
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One note on "spectacular" versus average bombing:
Average bombing results of 25% hits on each target would have
yielded 1.5 VP for the flak, 5 VP for the bridge, and 4 VP for
the trucks, totalling 10.5. But since trucks are easy to bomb,
let's say 50% against them for 8 VP, totalling 14.5. Under those
conditions, the Swedes would have had to do improbably well in
air combat to pull out a win.
However, after an average result against the bridge, the Swedes
might have sent their last bomber against it, scoring probably
another 3 hits and gaining the maximum 10 VP for it. At that
point, maybe someone could have strafed the suppressed flak (or
the trucks?) for a few more VP.
So I don't think my tests suggest that the Swedes are
overpowered or that they have it too easy in this scenario.
#Post#: 4522--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: February 15, 2020, 12:11 pm
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Okay, the two changes I'll implement for the next pass are:
(1) Start the turn 3 reinforcements in C6.
(2) Adjust the victory levels to the Swedes need a 16 or more to
win, and the draw window has shrunk to +13 - +15.
#Post#: 5134--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Scott Spencer Date: April 26, 2020, 11:45 am
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Scenario: L14 Fall Polarfuchs.
Version: v.02.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(Solo).
Report: Had J9s escort the B17As, J11s close escorted the B5s.
J9s tallied the FW190 CAP and split, one flight tied up the 190s
and the other strafed the trucks while the B17A bombed the flak
and bridge. J9 flight strafed trucks twice, scoring two hits.
B-17As put three hits on flak and six on the bridge. Flak used
direct fire and downed 3 B17As. B5s plastered the flak for ten
hits since bridge was already at the VP limit. Early on very
good for the Swedes. Swedish fighters did a good job at tying
up the Germans and allowing the bombings to go unmolested but
suffered greatly. The German pursuit was unreal. One veteran
FW190 CAP flight with the Experte had insanely good cohesion
rolls and managed to down ten B17As before finally taking two
losses and breaking. Swedes had two hits on the trucks(4VP),
Thirteen hits on the flak(9VP), six hits on the bridge(10VP)
plus the Fw190 kills(3VP). Germans downed thirteen B17As, five
B5s, one J11, eight J9s, and four J20s.
Victory: Swedes 26VP less German 31VP = -5 Massive German
victory. Felt like - Swedish pyrrhic victory. Swedes took out
all targets but at horrible cost.
Recommendations: It was a tale of two halves, with the Swedes
bombing very well then the Germans hacked the Vassal dice roller
and got insanely good combat and cohesion results. Swedish
fighters were just the opposite. I'm going to run this again
and hope for a more normal result. I think the VPs may need
some tinkering. Swedes had pretty much a max bombing result
here and if they repeat that and German kills are say 50% lower,
you'd still be looking at a German victory. Which reminds me,
The Victory conditions need fixed on the scenario as it shows
+11 or less for German victory but the draw window is at +13 to
+15.
#Post#: 5137--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: April 26, 2020, 12:50 pm
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So in this playing we have 23 VP from bombing, which we all
agree is a pretty good result. However, this is matched against
an disasterous 31 VP of losses.
Interestingly, the VP so far for bombing is:
Dave 1 = 16
Dave 2 = 28
Scott 1 = 23
This gives us a mean of 22.3 bombing VP per play.
Dave reckons an ‘average’ result should be closer to 14.5. I
haven’t run a test on this to see how true that assertion is.
The VP for German losses so far have been:
Dave 1 = 5
Dave 2 = 4
Scott 1 = 3
The VP for Swedish losses so far have been:
Dave 1 = 9
Dave 2 = 8
Scott 1 = 31
Right now that first play of Scott’s looks like a real outlier.
I feel like Scott should give us another run and see whether the
outrageous German air-to-air score can be repeated.
#Post#: 5141--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Scott Spencer Date: April 26, 2020, 5:54 pm
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Scenario: L14 Fall Polarfuchs.
Version: v.02.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(solo).
Report: Veteran Fw190 CAP sqn got a quick tally and split.
Fw190 Flight with the experte made a head on attack and
disrupted the lead B17A sqn with two kills. This B17A sqn was
then broken by flak and scored only 3 hits on the AA. Second
B17A rolled a 2 for its bombing attack and scored no hits. The
B5 sqn followed up with 10 hits on the bridge. German Fw190s
downed fourteen aircraft and flak another five(five B17A, 7 B5,
two J11, two J9, and three J20) . The Bf109 sqn did nothing.
The weak firepower and poor protection of Swedish fighters are
no match for the FW190. The Swedes were getting hits but could
not convert kills, whereas if a FW190 scores a hit, it is an
almost certain kill.
Victory: Swedes 12VP for bombing less German 19VP = -7 German
win. Felt like German win.
Recommendations: The one bad bomb roll really hurt but even
with good bombing the Swedes would still have lost. Maybe I'm
am the King of Outliers here, but I kind of think that we should
see numbers like this when a force of obsolescent aircraft(by
1940 standards no less) faces off against state-of-the art 1943
fighters. I think the scoring restrictions need taken off the
bridge for starters. Maybe double the VPs for killing the
trucks as well. I think another set of eyes would be good for
this one to see which way this one breaks.
#Post#: 5143--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: April 27, 2020, 1:18 am
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So this shifts the mean values around a bit. Here’s the numbers
with your second play counted in:
Dave 1 = 16
Dave 2 = 28
Scott 1 = 23
Scott 2 = 12
This gives us a mean of 19.75 bombing VPs per play. However, we
are seeing swings of 16 VP on bombing alone, in part because
there is no cap on VPs for trucks and flak.
The VP for German losses so far have been:
Dave 1 = 5
Dave 2 = 4
Scott 1 = 3
Scott 2 = 0
That’s a mean of 3 VPs.
The VP for Swedish losses so far have been:
Dave 1 = 9
Dave 2 = 8
Scott 1 = 31
Scott 2 = 19
That’s a mean of 16.75 VPs.
This all makes for a game that swings heavily on Swedish bombing
dice and German kill rate. I’m going to pass this one on to
Elias as soon as he’s free. I suspect some tweaks are necessary.
Some possibles include:
* Dropping the strength of one of the Fw 190 squadrons to a
flight
* Capping bomb VPs on all targets
* Tweaking the Heavy Flak unit down
As i say, i’ll pass this to Elias once he has finished with his
current scenario.
#Post#: 5144--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: April 27, 2020, 1:21 am
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Scott, would you like to move on to L11 All Day Permanent Red?
#Post#: 5158--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Scott Spencer Date: April 27, 2020, 3:02 pm
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Will do.
#Post#: 5173--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: Elias Nordling Date: April 28, 2020, 2:33 pm
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I'm pretty sure it was a light flak when I submitted it, but
that might not matter a great deal. The idea is that this isn't
exactly a prepared defense position, but then again, I guess
mobile 88s are heavy flak, and Germans had those in abundance.
#Post#: 5195--------------------------------------------------
Re: L14 Fall Polarfuchs
By: pilotofficerprune Date: April 29, 2020, 4:41 pm
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I've fixed the victory levels problem, but I don't want to make
any more adjustments until after Elias has looked over it.
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