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#Post#: 5851--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 7, 2020, 12:46 pm
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I'm inclined to agree that perhaps dropping another Veteran from
the Axis will help. I also want to try and get this one locked
down soon and finished. We can't keep tinkering with it.
Thanks, Scott. I think I may reassign you to another scenario
shortly. I need to think what to do next.
#Post#: 5949--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 14, 2020, 9:59 am
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In dropping one of the Axis Veteran markers I did not amend the
special rule regarding their placement. I've fixed this, but for
the next round of test one Veteran marker goes to each wing.
#Post#: 5955--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Forrest Speck Date: June 15, 2020, 7:45 am
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Game 1
v 0.8
Solitaire
Vet in Boston, 1 Green in P-40
German vets/experte as per SSR
No height errors
FLAK- average, 1 x Boston, did cause disruption
before bomb run
BOMBING- 4 hits, netting 10 VP
LOSSES- 4 x Boston (1 from FLAK)
6 x P-40 (4 from 1 combat, box
cars rolled)
14 points
3 x 109
3 points
VICTORY- 13-14, for -1 an Axis victory (felt like
Axis victory)
One less green P-40 helped, allowed me to
hide it a bit as a tail end escort. Shuffled the set up of the
escorts a bit to prevent a +2 mod for tallies for the Axis.
Bombing should have been better, bad die roll caused a
disruption on the Boston squadron before dropping. I want to
give this another go, with putting the vet on a P-40.
#Post#: 5956--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Forrest Speck Date: June 15, 2020, 9:55 am
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Game 2
v 0.8
Solitaire
Vet in P-40, green in P-40
German vets as per SSR.
No height errors
FLAK- somewhat effective, 1 x Boston, 1 x
Baltimore, affected 1 bomb drop
BOMBING- 6 hits, netting 20 VP
LOSSES- 2 x Baltimore (1 from FLAK)
2 x Boston (1 from FLAK)
11 x P-40 (6 losses on the green
squadron)
19 points
5 x 109
1 x MC202
6 points
VICTORY- 26-19 for +7 an Allied victory; felt like
Allied victory, rail head hit pretty well
Veteran P40 hung around to bitter end, able to get
back into escort range after a dogfight and successfully react.
The green P-40 despite getting hammered, did knock down a Me 109
while broken to secure win or else this would have been a draw.
Allied victory comes down to the bombing as these scenarios
usually do.
I think this is fine as is, Allied player will have
to set up it's escorts to avoid the +2 tally mod and possibly
keep their vet in a P-40 as opposed to the Boston to have a
chance.
I can give this another go or two, it plays fairly
quickly.
#Post#: 5957--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 15, 2020, 10:45 am
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That's fine, Forrest. I won't say no to more plays, but I think
it would be good to get someone else on the case too. Then I
hopefully will have enough data to set the final victory levels.
#Post#: 6006--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 18, 2020, 12:11 am
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I'm reposting this from where Dave originally posted in the test
status thread. (Plz can everyone post scenarios in the relevant
test thread?)
Scenario: Tussle Over Trapani
Version: v0.8
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: A squadron of P-40s gained the first tally but got
themselves broken after one turn of combat. The Green squadron
wisely avoided air combat by getting a tally, flipping to Sweep,
and heading off to strafe the Hvy Flak. That was useless,
scoring 0 hits and losing 1 aircraft. The MC.202 flight also
broke early, but the Bf 109s could not roll bad dice, doing
especially well on cohesion checks. The bombers both used
glide-bombing against the Railhead. Flak was totally ineffective
against the bombers, which scored 50%, 10% for 7 hits = 10 VP.
The P-40s set up a good attack on Bf 109s that were
concentrating on the bombers and managed 3 kills total. But the
US fighters rolled poorly for cohesion. The Germans brutalized
the bombers on egress, scoring all 12 kills after they had
bombed. Using a Veteran as a bomber crew helped bomb accuracy,
but left the Allies with no good fighter unit.
Victory: Allied VP: bombing 10, fighter kills 3 = 13
Axis VP: fighter kills 7 = 7; bomber kills 12 = 24, total = 31
net -18, a ridiculous run-away Axis victory
Recommendations: None yet, with such a skewed sample so far. In
competition I don't complain about dice, but for test purposes I
have to point out that the Axis had consistent above-average
luck while the Allies threw crummy dice. I will try more
playings. I considered not reporting this one, it seems like
such an outlier. But it is data.
#Post#: 6014--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Jean Foisy Date: June 18, 2020, 6:38 pm
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Lee,
here it is.
Scenario: L15 Tussle over Trapani Test 03
Version: v0.8
Playtesters: Jean Foisy [Solo]
Report:
Very rapidly the escort had their hands full of enemy fighters
preventing them to do any organized defence.
Unfortunately the bombing was pitiful; only 2 Hits and another
one from the retreating Baltimore strasfing the Railhead.
All this resulted in a mere 3 Hits for Minor Damage to the
target.
The Flak was quite effective.
The Baltimore Squadron was pursued from it's dive to the target
to square A0
losing 7 aircrafts to the the Wing Leader of the 150th Gruppo.
Victory:
US bombing: Minor Damage: 3 VPs X 2 = 6 VPs
US enemies shot down: 1VP (1 x Folgore)
US TOTAL = 7 VPs
Italians enemies shot down: 19 VPs (3 x P-40F + 7 x Baltimores
and 1 x Bostons)
Italians TOTAL = 19 VPs
Scenario TOTAL: -12 VPs; --> Axis Victory
[Perceived Victory Level: Axis seeing the bombing results and
the Baltimore leaving a trail of shot-down bombers]
Recommendations: None
Best.
Jean
#Post#: 6015--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Okmed Date: June 18, 2020, 11:46 pm
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Sorry: Dropped that report in the wrong window.
Pardon me now while I trot over to the Fall Polarfuchs thread to
paste what's currently in my buffer.
#Post#: 6018--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 19, 2020, 2:41 am
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So, after Jean’s plays the VPs looked like this:
Allied bombing - 10 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 10 + 20 = mean 16.6
Axis losses - 6 + 4 + 2 + 5 + 3 + 2 = mean 3.6
Allied losses - 3 + 16 + 23 + 24 + 18 + 20 = mean 17.3
It gave us a mean result of +2.9 and results of:
Elias 4 = +13
Scott 1 = +8
Forrest 1 = -1
Forrest 2 = +1
Jean 1 = -5
Jean 2 = +2
Scott’s two plays following the changes are:
Allied bombing - 4 + 0 = mean 2.0
Axis losses - 4 + 1 = mean 2.5
Allied losses - 14 + 18 = mean 16.0
Scott 1 = -6
Scott 2 = -17
The results of the next five plays are:
Allied bombing - 20 + 10 + 20 + 10 + 6 = mean 13.2
Axis losses - 2 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 1 = mean 3.0
Allied losses - 22 + 14 + 19 + 24 + 19 = mean 19.6
Now, only the last four of those plays have the Veteran
adjustment in, but it’s good data. This gives us a mean VP
output of -3.4. The last five plays are as follows:
Scott 3 = +0
Forrest 3 = -1
Forrest 4 = +7
Dave 1 = -18
Jean 3 = -12
The odd thing is that despite the adjustments in the Allied
favour the averages have if anything favoured the Axis. Though
at this stage familiarity with the scenario may be improving the
Axis play.
So what if we add ALL the last 13 plays together? What do we
get?
Allied bombing = mean 13.0
Axis losses = mean 3.2
Allied losses = mean 18.0
This gives a mean VP output of -2.8
For me the problem is that the mean result sits in the negative
region. As you know I’ve been religiously avoiding setting
negative victory levels. It’s not that we can’t do it, it’s just
that I feel very uncomfortable doing that. Setting a draw window
of -3 to -1 (with a +0 for an Allied win) would turn the last 13
plays into the following Allied results: 6W 5L 2D. The last five
Allied results would be 2W 2L 1D.
Perhaps that’s what I need to do and then sign this one off.
Action points:
Set victory levels to:
-4 or less - Axis Victory
-3 to -1 = Draw
+0 or more Allied Victory
Now, there's a problem with this in that this victory level
permits the Allies to win by running away on the first turn. So
perhaps i need to change the range of results to:
-4 or less - Axis Victory
-3 to +0 = Draw
+1 or more Allied Victory
This at least forces the Allies to require positive VP to win.
Unless anyone has any comments on this I'm tempted to make this
change and sign Trapani off.
#Post#: 6061--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Okmed Date: June 21, 2020, 4:12 pm
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I have finished one up from the other day. Had lined up a
playing against Ellen, but she was unavailable, and it seemed
like last call. This report will not rock the boat.
Scenario: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
Version: v0.8
Players: Dave Demko (solo)
Narrative: Thanks to blown Allies tally rolls, the initial Axis
fighters set up well on the bombers, but still had little
effect. The air to air situation developed and fragmented, and
th Green P-40 squadron used its "let's go strafing" ploy. The
bombers glide bombed the Railyard achieving only 10% hits each.
Strafing inflicted 2 hits in two passes. The Allies forced three
dogfights, two of them to their advantage. The Veteran P-40
squadron held together the whole game, and both sides scored
better than average in air-to-air combat
Victory:
Allies bombing Railhead Slight 1 VP
Hvy Flak Minor 2 VP
fighter kills 10 VP
Allies total 13
Axis Bomber kills 12 VP
fighter kills 4 VP
Axis total 16
net -3 Draw
This is using the updated victory conditions:
-4 or less - Axis Victory
-3 to +0 = Draw
+1 or more Allied Victory
Recommendations: None. I'm happy with this. We can see that the
air-to-air situation is fun if neither side falls apart early.
The Allied near-loss due to poor bombing seems appropriate, but
they get some credit for better than expected air combat.
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