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#Post#: 5791--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Jean Foisy Date: June 4, 2020, 6:04 pm
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I thinks its Scott S.
See Lee's 24th May post.
Jean
#Post#: 5793--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 5, 2020, 2:01 am
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Yes, it's Scott S. Sorry.
#Post#: 5801--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 5, 2020, 5:31 am
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Note to Self
Changes in next release:
(1) Reduce the Allied Green markers by 1, per Jean’s proposal.
(Also change special rule 3 so that it refers to a single Green
marker.)
(2) Drop the draw window on the victory conditions to +3 to +6.
#Post#: 5811--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Scott Spencer Date: June 5, 2020, 8:18 pm
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Scenario: L15 Tussle Over Trapani.
Version: V0.7.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(solo)
Report: Allies stacked escorts in the two squares above each
bomber. The Italians tried to clear escorts to give the Germans
a shot at the bombers and were generally successful. Flak
downed one bomber and disrupted the Bostons. The bombers had
gone down to altitude four to improve accuracy but rolled very
poorly, only scoring one hit each, which pretty much was the
ballgame.
Victory: Allied 8VPs - four fighters downed, two bomb hits for
two VPs doubled to four. Axis 14VPs - six fighters and four
bombers downed(two of each type). Minus 6 = Axis victory. Felt
like Axis victory.
Recommendations: None yet. I'll probably put the Vet marker on
one of the bombers for the next go.
#Post#: 5834--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Scott Spencer Date: June 6, 2020, 2:33 pm
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Scenario: L15 Tussle Over Trapani.
Version: v0.7.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(Solo).
Report: Same setup as before but added Veteran to Boston
squadron. The P-40s kept the Axis fighters tied up until the
very end when a Veteran German 109 flight scored three kills on
the Baltimore bombers. Flak was ineffective but again, Allied
bombing rolls were dreadful(a three and a four) and no hits were
scored. Twelve P-40s and three Baltimore bombers lost for only
one Italian Me-109 shot down! In spite of this drubbing, the
P-40s rolled exceptionally well for cohesion and broke all but
one Axis flight.
Victory: Axis 18VP, Allies 1VP
Recommendations: This was an aberration, but maybe we should
look at awarding a set number of VPs for intact/disrupted
bombers entering the target square?
#Post#: 5835--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 6, 2020, 4:20 pm
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So, after Jean’s plays the VPs looked like this:
Allied bombing - 10 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 10 + 20 = mean 16.6
Axis losses - 6 + 4 + 2 + 5 + 3 + 2 = mean 3.6
Allied losses - 3 + 16 + 23 + 24 + 18 + 20 = mean 17.3
It gave us a mean result of +2.9 and results of:
Elias 4 = +13
Scott 1 = +8
Forrest 1 = -1
Forrest 2 = +1
Jean 1 = -5
Jean 2 = +2
Scott’s two plays following the changes are:
Allied bombing - 4 + 0 = mean 2.0
Axis losses - 4 + 1 = mean 2.5
Allied losses - 14 + 18 = mean 16.0
Clearly Scott’s bombing results were terrible, compared with far
more consistent bombing results previously. But them’s the
breaks on the die rolls. I’m going to sleep on this one and come
back fresh in the morning. Given how few bomber squadrons there
are, Scott’s suggestions on the bombing are well worth
considering. I think I need to go back through the AARs and see
how many bombers were disrupted before hitting the target.
#Post#: 5836--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Scott Spencer Date: June 6, 2020, 8:59 pm
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I'll hold off on another play until you make some changes.
#Post#: 5837--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 7, 2020, 2:21 am
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Going back through the AARs it seems that the duel between the
bombers and flak has been a key one for the scenario, which
makes me unwilling to shift to set bombing VPs.
Speadsheeting the bombing vs. the railhead, I want to look at
the mean number of hits being inflicted.
Boston
+1 mod = 3.25 hits
+0 mod = 2.19
-1 mod = 1.39
-2 mod = 0.83
-3 mod = 0.44
-4 mod = 0.22
Baltimore
+1 mod = 3.61 hits
+0 mod = 2.39
-1 mod = 1.47
-2 mod = 0.86
-3 mod = 0.44
-4 mod = 0.22
So let’s take the example of a glide-bomb attack from altitude
4. The mean outputs with the following flak mods are:
No flak mods = 6.86 hits
Flak mod -1 = 4.58 hits
Flak mod -2 = 2.86 hits
So barring bad die rolls the bombers should be scoring over 3
hits for 5 x 2 = 10 VPs. We have historically seen 20 VPs on 50%
of plays so far and under 10 VPs on 25% of plays. Given the
swinginess of our 2d6 bombing system I can live with this at the
moment.
My current instincts are to leave the scenario unchanged in the
bombing department.
#Post#: 5838--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 7, 2020, 2:22 am
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My one concern is that Scott’s plays have not seen a great
improvement in Allied air-to-air performance, though there’s not
a lot of data to go on. Also, I suspect placing the Veterans on
the bombers may have hurt the fighters somewhat.
#Post#: 5850--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Scott Spencer Date: June 7, 2020, 11:38 am
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Scenario: L15 Tussle over Trapani.
Version: v0.7.
Playtester: Scott Spencer(solo).
Report: Veteran put back with the P-40s. Bombers tried glide
bombing this time and scored 6 hits(5 by Bostons). They were
helped by the lack of effective Flak fire. Axis fighters downed
ten P-40s, five Bostons, and a Baltimore. All bomber losses
were post-bombing. Two Me-109s were lost by the Axis.
Victory: Allies: 10VP by bombing x 2 = 20VP plus 2VP for kills
= 22VP. Axis - 10 VPs for fighters plus 12VPs for bomber kills
= 22VP. Net Score 0 = Axis victory.
Recommendation: My bombing results this time were more in the
norm. The P-40s are clearly at a disadvantage. Reducing the
number of Axis veterans is one option. Another thought would be
to give the Axis just 1VP for every bomber kill. If we went the
latter route the score in this case would have been a +6 high
end draw.
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