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#Post#: 5568--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Forrest Speck Date: May 22, 2020, 10:16 am
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Game 1
v0.5
Solo
Veteran to Baltimore, greens to P-40's.
Italian assets as per SSR.
No height errors.
FLAK- deadly, 2 Bostons and 1 P-40.
BOMBING- 10 vp for railhead. Bostons able to get
3 hits despite -2 FLAK DR.
LOSSES- 7 x Baltimore (Axis veteran plus
experte rolled "12", "11", and "10" on 3 rolls, coming out of
the sun. Never had a 14 on the +4 column before!
4 x Boston (2 from FLAK)
1 x P-40 (Me 109's were throwing
spitballs at them...and they weren't even sticking)
23 points
2 x Me 109
VICTORY- 23-12 (+11 for Italian victory- felt like
Italian victory, bomber losses were high)
FLAK was effective and the Me
109 from the second wave over performed, which more than made up
for the poor shooting of the Me 109's against the P-40's.
I think victory spread is right
on, no recommendations, will run again.
#Post#: 5569--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Forrest Speck Date: May 22, 2020, 1:43 pm
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Game 2
v 0.5
Solo
Vet in Baltimore, greens in P-40's
Axis assets as per SSR
FLAK- 1 Boston shot down, a straggler each on
Baltimore and a P-40. Both bomb runs affected.
BOMBING- 10 points for the railhead
LOSSES- 1 x MC202
4 x Me 109 (one by defensive fire
by bomber)
5 points
2 x Boston (1 from FLAK)
6 x Baltimore
8 x P-40 (able to isolate
vet/experte against a green, pounded snot out of him- should
have voluntarily broken the P-40 and ran to the deck after first
combat)
24 points
VICTORY- 24-15 (+9 for a draw) Felt like a draw
because of the bombing results.
Axis had a chance at end of game and
would have had 1 more turn but both squadrons broke, one from a
roll of snake eyes. Like the 2 waves of interceptors for the
Axis, good decisions to be had whether to risk flak hitting your
own planes or letting the bombers go unmolested. Clouds play a
part in decision process. Both sides feel pressure as Allies
chances rely on bombing results while the Axis has to drive the
kill count. Victory spread seems to be right on. This seems good
to go.
#Post#: 5571--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 22, 2020, 4:39 pm
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The last four plays gave us these VP numbers:
Allied bombing - 5 + 10 + 10 + 10 = mean 8.75
Axis losses - 6 + 4 + 2 + 5 = mean 4.25
Allied losses - 3 + 16 + 23 + 24 = mean 16.5
This gives us a mean result of +3.5, suggesting the draw window
needs to be lower.
I note that in Forrest’s plays Allied losses have spiked.
I’m also unhappy about any scenario in which the raiding side is
subtracted from the defending side, as that can create an
incentive for the Allies to win by running away.
So my proposal is as follows:
(1) Double VPs from bombing.
(2) Reverse the victory calculation.
That would give us a mean result of +10.5, suggesting a draw
window from +9 to +11.
This would give us the following outputs from the last four
plays:
Elias 4 = +13
Scott 1 = +8
Forrest 1 = -1
Forrest 2 = +1
I think we need more numbers for this scenario. I’ll ask someone
else to give me a couple more plays until we feel happy with the
data.
Forrest, could you please move on to L21 Budapest Beseiged?
#Post#: 5572--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Forrest Speck Date: May 22, 2020, 4:54 pm
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Yes
#Post#: 5585--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: May 24, 2020, 2:38 am
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Note that I'm double-teaming Jean and Scott S onto this scenario
to give me a heap of data to set this one to bed. If they can
deliver two plays each i think that would give us the numbers we
need.
#Post#: 5666--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Jean Foisy Date: May 28, 2020, 4:32 pm
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Lee,
Scenario: L15 Tussle over Trapani Test 01
Version: v0.6
Playtesters: Jean Foisy [Solo]
Report:
At first, the escort managed to intercept and engage the
defenders before they reached the bombers.
That line of defence hold for another turn while the Baltimore
glide-bombed for no hits.
The Boston entered the barrage and caused Minor damage to the
Railhead while the escort and the defenders combats raged
overhead.
The Green P-40s left the combat giving the Italians the
advantage of numbers. They engaged the retreating bombers and
shot down 7 of them.
The Flak was innefective.
Victory:
US bombing: Minor damage:5 VPs X 2 = 10VPs
US enemies shot down: 3 VPs (3 x 109-G)
US TOTAL = 13 VPs
Italians enemies shot down: 18 VPs (4 x P-40F + 5 x Baltimores
and 2 x Bostons)
Bulgarian TOTAL = 18 VPs
Scenario TOTAL: -5 VPs; --> Axis Victory [Perceived Victory
Level: Italians because they downed bombers after an infective
bomb run]
Recommendations: None
Jean
#Post#: 5716--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Jean Foisy Date: May 31, 2020, 4:33 pm
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Lee,
Scenario: L15 Tussle over Trapani Test 02
Version: v0.6
Playtesters: Jean Foisy [Solo]
Report:
The escort was overhelmed for the duration, stuck in dogfight
and / or enemy following them.
Fortunately the bombing was successful causing Heavy Damage to
the Railhead. The Flak was ineffective.
In the last 4 turns the Italians were pursuing the bombers with
no opposition from the P-40.
Fortunately for the bombers the attackers rolled low on their
attack rolls.
Victory:
US bombing: Heavy damage:10 VPs X 2 = 20VPs
US enemies shot down: 2VPs (2 x Folgore)
US TOTAL = 22 VPs
Italians enemies shot down: 20 VPs (4 x P-40F + 2 x Baltimores
and 5 x Bostons)
Italians TOTAL = 20 VPs
Scenario TOTAL: +2 VPs; --> Axis Victory [Perceived Victory
Level: Italians]
Recommendations: The Green status of 2 P-40 squadrons was
hurting the US side. What about reducing to 1 Green Squadron.
Jean
#Post#: 5718--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: pilotofficerprune Date: June 1, 2020, 1:49 am
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Okay, so the VPs after Jean’s plays:
Allied bombing - 10 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 10 + 20 = mean 16.6
Axis losses - 6 + 4 + 2 + 5 + 3 + 2 = mean 3.6
Allied losses - 3 + 16 + 23 + 24 + 18 + 20 = mean 17.3
This gives us a mean result of +2.9. Recent results are:
Elias 4 = +13
Scott 1 = +8
Forrest 1 = -1
Forrest 2 = +1
Jean 1 = -5
Jean 2 = +2
It’s clear that the big variable here is how well the Axis can
savage the raid. I’m inclined to think that Jean’s suggestion
that we reduce the Allied Green markers by one could make a
notable difference here.
So my proposals for change is:
(1) Reduce the Allied Green markers by 1, per Jean’s proposal.
(Also change special rule 3 so that it refers to a single Green
marker.) This will hopefully generate fewer Allied and more Axis
casualties by a small number.
(2) Drop the draw window on the victory conditions to +3 to +6.
I will need to ask Scott to play the scenario with this
configuration.
Jean, could you please move onto L20 Operation Arcturus and give
me a couple of plays? BTW, you are fully deserving of a
complimentary copy for all the test you’ve done.
#Post#: 5724--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: Jean Foisy Date: June 1, 2020, 9:40 am
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Lee,
changing the draw window is good too.
thanks for the complimentary.
On to L20!
Jean
#Post#: 5790--------------------------------------------------
Re: L15 Tussle Over Trapani
By: ScottKey Date: June 4, 2020, 3:08 pm
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Which Scott?
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