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#Post#: 4186--------------------------------------------------
L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 31, 2019, 2:54 am
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This is a thread stub.
#Post#: 4820--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: Gordon Christie Date: March 18, 2020, 9:38 am
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Andrew (US) & I have now had one run through this & are most of
the way through a second. Overall pretty happy though some minor
changes we're trying second time out.
It is a big scenario but works well as a showcase for the Me 410
& the heavy gun rules. Close to the optimal scenario for the
Germans but The US fighters have enough teeth that the outcome
isn't a forgone conclusion.
First run saw 17 B-24s and 5 P-51s shot down in exchange for 3
109s and 6 Me 410s. 3 bomber squadrons were broken and 1
disrupted.
Final VP were:
US 42 (15 AtA, 27 exit)
LW 56 (all AtA)
Final -14 for a German victory, which we felt was appropriate.
The heavy gun Me410s are fearsome. Both squadrons were veteran
with an experte. With the Mustangs otherwise occupied one
squadron managed 12+ kills (we stopped counting...) whereas the
other, with the redoubtable Allan Galland in the lead, managed a
kill and a straggler before breaking. Allan failed to live up to
his legendary reputation however by bringing all his wingmen
home.
Thoughts:
The relieving P-51Ds start too far away. By the time they got
into a position to engage all but one LW squadron had broken &
the remaining disrupted Me410 squadron voluntarily broke rather
than let the P-51Ds in amongst them to farm VPs.
I doubt that all 4 P-51D squadrons are necessary. They would be
a formation which makes tallying easier for the Germans. We
thought we would reduce the P-51Ds to 2 squadrons-this should be
enough to deal with the remaining LW squadrons. We moved entry
to GT3 with the wing leader in or right of column U at alt 14 or
less.
The P-51Bs are outnumbered & might benefit from tactical
flexibility. This would enable them to take on the larger number
of LW squadrons & makes for some more interesting choices for
both sides about splitting or not.
Overall though the scenario works pretty well. Result is close
enough to history provided the P-51Ds can be brought in a bit
earlier. Good outing for contrails & heavy guns. Challenges for
both sides. The Germans have to manage diverse quality & try &
get the 410s into contact in favourable conditions. The P-51Bs
are pretty capable and, even though outnumbered can complicate
the LW attack considerably.
We're well through a run with the modifications above & it looks
pretty good. Final report should be in shortly.
In other news the day job (as some are aware) is respiratory &
critical care medicine so I'm likely to be rather busy fairly
soon. Workload is going to go up & my involvement might be a bit
intermittent & patchy. Apologies in advance.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 4821--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: Elias Nordling Date: March 18, 2020, 11:52 am
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[quote]In other news the day job (as some are aware) is
respiratory & critical care medicine so I'm likely to be rather
busy fairly soon.[/quote]
Wow, no kidding! You're going to be needed and appreciated!
#Post#: 4822--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: pilotofficerprune Date: March 18, 2020, 1:05 pm
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Firstly, the day job takes priority. No apology necessary.
Second, should I wait on the report on your second run before
making changes? Or shall I start rolling these into the
scenario?
#Post#: 4824--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: Gordon Christie Date: March 18, 2020, 4:27 pm
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plan is to finish second run tomorrow but we're well through & I
think we're likely only to be confirming the changes above with,
possibly, minor additional tweaks.
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 4826--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: pilotofficerprune Date: March 18, 2020, 5:09 pm
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Cool. If it's possible to get the full list of tweaks to me
before Sunday that would be grand. Of course, your work takes
priority.
#Post#: 4852--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: Gordon Christie Date: March 21, 2020, 2:45 pm
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Second run through this with modifications:
1. P-51Ds setup separately with wing leader in or right of
column U at altitude 14 or less.
2. P-51Bs have tactical flexibility.
All worked pretty well; the initial engagement between the
P-51Bs and the 109s worked well with a lot of tactical choices
and decision making with the Germans trying hard to protect the
410s with the heavy guns. Perhaps against the odds the 109s came
out ahead 13:9 with only 1 410 squadron engaged. The 410s needed
to manoeuvre carefully to gain an advantageous position and
avoid the Mustangs, in the process delaying their attack on the
bombers and giving the P-51Ds more of a chance to get into the
action late.
Final score was 13 US fighters and 16 bombers lost against 9
single engined and 4 twin engines fighters. 2 bombers broken and
4 disrupted for 24 exit VPs.
Totals were
US 24 exit and 17 ATA for 41 total
LW 61
Total +20 to the LW; felt like LW victory.
We felt this worked pretty well and would be happy with this at
alpha stage. There might be an argument for giving the P-51Ds a
split limit of 4 but our run worked pretty well without this. VP
calibration is still an issue.
We felt that the US VPs should be subtracted from the LW since
the US are likely to lose a lot of bombers provided the LW can
get the 410s with heavy guns into the bombers-which should be
possible if not entirely straightforward. Our ballpark
suggestion is that the German victory threshold should be +18
or so, though beta should calibrate it.
Changes as above; optionally tactical flexibility for the P-51Ds
Cheers
Gordon
#Post#: 4854--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: pilotofficerprune Date: March 21, 2020, 3:17 pm
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So in the two plays so far we’ve seen the following VP outputs:
US Bomber loss VP - 51 + 48 = mean 49.5
US Fighter loss VP - 5 + 13 = mean 9
US exit VP - 27 + 24 = mean 25.5
German 410 loss VP - 9 + 6 = mean 7.5
German 109 loss VP - 3 + 9 = mean 6
So if we go with the plan of reversing the calculation we get
the following mean values:
German = 58.5
US = 39
Total (German - US) = 19.5
This is close to Gordon’s suggestion that the German victory
threshold should be +18 or so. The perception is that both
fights were German victories. The question is, can the Americans
do enough in the new setup to prevent a Luftwaffe victory?
On reflection I’ll calibrate the draw window to +12 to +18, a
spread of 7 VPs. We’ll recalibrate when we have more data.
#Post#: 4857--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: pilotofficerprune Date: March 21, 2020, 6:19 pm
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Gordon & Andrew, if you're done with this one, can you please
move onto L21 Budapest Besieged, next?
#Post#: 4859--------------------------------------------------
Re: L19 Wrath of the Destroyers
By: Gordon Christie Date: March 22, 2020, 2:48 am
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Excellent. That’s just what we did last night:-))
Moe news later
Cheers
Gordon
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