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       #Post#: 492--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: Rick McKown Date: November 6, 2018, 1:21 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Hi Lee,
       One more shot switching sides, starting tonight (6 Nov).
       Rick
       #Post#: 495--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: Rick McKown Date: November 7, 2018, 1:38 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Scenario: E11 Things to Come, Game #2
       Version: v0.4
       Playtesters: Rick McKown (US) / John Lawton [Kyloth] (Japanese)
       Report: US player placed 2x Veteran + Gyro with Sweeps(rather
       than Escorts as last game).  Japanese placed all Veteran +
       Experten with starting Ki-61s (same approach) and went for the
       bombers, aiming for h/o. US Sweep squadrons stayed as squadrons
       when they tallied (did not split) and engaged two of the Ki-61
       squadrons before the latter closed with bombers; one US Sweep
       squadron suffered four losses and broke early but the other
       Sweep squadron hung in until Turn 6.  Two Japanese Ki-61
       squadrons also took losses and broke.  Heavier Japanese a/c
       engaged bombers; Japanese special armament shot down one B-29
       (no ramming this time).  Last US Sweep and Escort squadrons,
       Japanese Ki-44 squadron and last Ki-61 flight all broke on Turn
       6, leaving only the bombers and the Ki-45 flight with stand-off
       heavy guns on the map; game ended on Turn 7 with Ki-45 breaking
       and US having three good order B-29 squadrons (18 VP) and one
       disrupted B-29 squadron (3 VP).  Still feel that this is a
       really good scenario; we believe this one is good to go.
       Victory: Draw IAW VP; Draw IAW player perception
       US: Exited bombers 21 VP + Japanese a/c shot down 8 VP = 29 VP
       Japanese: Attacks on bombers 7 VP + US a/c shot down 7 VP = 14
       VP
       Total: +15 VP, Draw
       Recommendations: No change in scenario.  Suggestion to create
       some Gyro counters for use on the Wing Display since only two of
       four US fighter squadrons have gyros stands.
       One base rules observation was that it seemed illogical that
       while Tallies are adversely affected by the target being in the
       Sun or to the Rear, Escort Reaction is not affected by these
       factors; suggest revisiting this and considering adding the same
       Sun & Rear DRMs to the Reaction Table.  When US escort rolled a
       modified "6" to react when Japanese flight was behind & below
       this seemed unrealistic - if the -2 DRM had applied it would
       have been a Late Reaction, giving Japanese player an additional
       VP for one more attack on a bomber - and that would have been
       +14 VP for a Japanese victory.
       Next week we will plan to tackle E10.
       Rick & John
       #Post#: 496--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 7, 2018, 1:49 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       You've been playing with 2 US veterans instead of 3?
       #Post#: 497--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 7, 2018, 3:58 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I think I'm still waiting on a possible AAR from Andrew and
       Gordon. Once I have that, we'll see where we are. But I'm close
       to closing the book on this scenario.
       #Post#: 499--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 7, 2018, 4:24 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I think it is good and balanced, but there is a problem in that
       we've been testing two different versions of the scenario in
       parallel.
       #Post#: 500--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 7, 2018, 4:27 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Rick has been playing the latest, v0.4 with the increased US
       veterans. The problem tends to be more with Gordon and Andrew,
       who may be playing with an older generation of scenario.
       #Post#: 501--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: Elias Nordling Date: November 7, 2018, 5:23 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Oh, right you are! I thought they only had 2 veterans by the
       description, but as you say, they played version 0.4.
       If the scores are validated, i'm certainly ready to call this
       one done. Good one too!
       #Post#: 502--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 7, 2018, 5:26 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       It certainly would be nice to put another to bed. I think we are
       starting to get to the point where the number of plays a
       scenario had is far less important than the number of names
       signing off on them. In the future, we will be pivoting to
       focusing only on those scenarios with few or no sign-offs.
       #Post#: 572--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: Gordon Christie Date: November 18, 2018, 10:08 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Andrew and I have now run through this on 4 occasions. We have
       struggled a little bit with the balance, which seemed to be
       consistently a bit too much in favour of the Japanese (which
       would fit with the general impression from reading the earlier
       reports on the scenario). Nonetheless with a little bit of
       tweaking I think we have reached a point we are happy with.
       Quick summary of suggested changes:
       Remove fuel limits from the US fighters
       Decrease the number of Japanese experts by 1
       Decrease the number of Japanese veterans by 1
       Increase the number of Japanese Green units by 1.
       Quick summary of our 4 play throughs (Gordon as the Americans,
       Andrew as the Japanese):
       First run:
       This was pretty much straight force on force bloodbath. 7
       Superfortresses and 5 Mustangs were lost compared to 17 single
       engined and 2 twin engine fighters for the Japanese; there were
       8 attacks on the bombers, 3 squadrons of which exited intact and
       only 1 disrupted.
       Final VP totals were:
       US: 41  (21 excIt, 24 kills)
       Japanese: 34 (26 for kills and 8 for attacks ).
       Final score was +7 for a convincing Japanese victory (which felt
       right to us). Overall the US escort felt a bit brittle  &
       splitting seemed to achieve little beyond sending flights home
       after their first combat, particularly with the fuel limits and
       towards the end the Japanese were able to get a fair number of
       unanswered attacks on the bombers, including several by the
       rocket gun equipped fighters. The Japanese cause was also helped
       by a flight of Green Tonys which turned up at the end and
       proceeded to shoot down 2 B – 29s on their first attack before
       promptly breaking!
       The second run played similarly, although was considerably less
       bloody. The Americans lost 3 bombers and 4 fighters (-13 victory
       points) but only got 15 victory points for exit (one bomber
       squadron broken, one disrupted). The Japanese lost 10 single
       engined and 4 twin-engine fighters in the course of 9 attacks on
       the bombers.
       Final scores were:
       US 31 (16 kills, 15 exit)
       Japanese 22 (13 kills, nine attacks).
       Final score was +9 for another solid Japanese victory – which
       again felt right.
       At this point we reduced the number of Japanese experten by 1,
       and changed 1 Veteran Japanese unit to Green.
       The third game was another wild outlier where everything went
       right for the Japanese, and not much went right for the
       Americans. One Veteran Japanese Tony squadron managed to engage
       on every one of the 10 turns played losing only 1 aircraft and 1
       straggler and inflicting at least 4 bomber and 2 fighter losses
       on the Americans. Once again the American escort seemed very
       brittle and, although the final score of 13 bombers and 4
       fighter losses against only 10 Japanese losses (only 1 twin
       engined) undoubtedly flattered the Japanese once again it felt
       very difficult for the Americans, even discounting the heroic
       efforts of the Veteran Tonys, and was difficult to see how they
       were likely to win.
       Final scores:
       Americans 19.5 (9 exit – two bomber squadrons broken, 1
       disrupted; 10.5 for kills)
       
       Japanese 61 (43 for kills,18 attacks on bombers)
       At this point we thought the US escort really needed more
       persistence &, after some discussion, removed the fuel limits
       for the final run. We also (finally!) noticed that 2 of the
       American squadrons had gyro sights… This omission undoubtedly
       helped the Japanese in the previous games but I doubt it made
       any substantive difference.
       The fourth run felt better-plenty of choices for both sides but
       the US escorts were more persistent & able to block many-but not
       all- Japanese attacks. The Americans lost 2 bombers and 4
       fighters against 15 single engined and 3 twin engined Japanese
       fighters. There were 9 attacks on the bombers which all survived
       undisrupted. Final scores were:
       US 43.5 (24 exit, 19.5 kills)
       Japanese 19 (10 kills and 9 attacks on the bombers)
       On this occasion the dice didn't seem particularly to favour
       either side, apart perhaps for the bomber cohesion rolls which
       certainly beat the statistically likely outcome for the
       Americans. Although the final score was 24.5 for a solid US
       victory unlike the other games this felt as if it could easily
       have gone the other way – and a couple of failed bomber cohesion
       rolls (which statistically would have been quite likely) would
       have made it the barest of American victories.
       Overall though it's a good scenario. As Elias said at the
       beginning it is very much a Pacific force on force game. It
       would make an appealing part of the technological development
       narrative to see the B – 29s at their natural (very high!)
       altitude, although this probably wouldn't make much of a game
       from the Japanese point of view – and it is certainly notable
       that this was one of the largest intercepts the Japanese managed
       against a raid operating rather lower than the 20th Air Force
       normally flew in daylight. My reading of the final volume of
       Craven & Cate which concentrates heavily on the B-29 raids
       leaves a strong impression that the Japanese could do very
       little about B-29 raids above 25000 feet or so & probably
       stopped trying to intercept them from May or so onwards.
       The heavy gun rules worked smoothly, and I'd be pretty happy
       with them as they now stand. The mix of aircraft is also
       interesting, and the final outcome seem to us to fit the
       historical narrative reasonably well.
       Cheers
       Gordon
       #Post#: 573--------------------------------------------------
       Re: E11 Things to Come
       By: pilotofficerprune Date: November 18, 2018, 10:30 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=Gordon Christie link=topic=13.msg572#msg572
       date=1542557291]Quick summary of suggested changes:
       Remove fuel limits from the US fighters
       Decrease the number of Japanese experts by 1
       Decrease the number of Japanese veterans by 1
       Increase the number of Japanese Green units by 1.[/quote]
       So, for the guys who most recently played this: what are your
       views on the proposed changes?
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