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#Post#: 649--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 2, 2018, 1:49 pm
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Good point.
#Post#: 651--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: Elias Nordling Date: December 2, 2018, 2:32 pm
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That said, I just tried the same tactic, with similar results:
v0.4. Elias Nordling (solo)
I sent the Finns, one broken down into flights the other as a
full squadron, towards the Pe-2:s. Initially, the results
weren't impressive, but the Finns were lucky in disrupting
bombers. So was the flak, which meant that all but one bomber
squadron attacked disrupted. A total of 15 bombing hits were
scored, 6 on the airfield and 9 on the flak.
The secret weapon proved to be the full Finnish squadron against
the green Pe2 squadron. A total of 10 Pe2s were lost. The Finns
suffered zero losses, and no yaks were lost either, so the final
score was 7 points for bombing -20 points for bomber losses, for
a convincing Finnish victory at -13.
The Soviets coud definitely have bombed better, and 4 of the
bomber losses came from a single combat where the Finns rolled
12, but even if the Soviets scored 3 more more points and the
Soviets lost 4 less bombers, the score would still be in the
negative.
Comments: An obvious countermeasure is to not put a green crew
in one of the Pe2:s. This would reduce losses a bit. Still, I
feel reducing the value of the airfield to 3 points might take
things a bit too far, not the least because it makes the flak
unit more valuable, bombing point for bombing point.
#Post#: 652--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 2, 2018, 4:17 pm
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I'll look at this again tomorrow, and crunch the numbers then.
However, I hear you on the flak problem. Maybe we reduce their
VPs as well.
#Post#: 653--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: Elias Nordling Date: December 3, 2018, 12:45 am
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That was my first thought, but in the end, if the Finns only
need to bring down 4-5 Pe-2s to get the score into the negative,
then the game is essentially decided by Pe2 losses. You could
reduce those to 1 points each too, but then we are reducing the
points for just about everything except the Sturmoviks, so maybe
we should increase the points for those instead?
#Post#: 654--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 3, 2018, 3:37 am
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Okay, so let’s look at the breakdown between the IL-2 and Pe-2
losses. Though we may keep in mind that the results are
distorted because people might try to ‘farm’ the Pe-2s.
Elias 1: 0 IL-2; 8 Pe-2
Elias 2: 1 IL-2; 0 Pe-2
Elias 3: 8 IL-2; 2 Pe-2
Dave 1: ?
Dave 2: ? IL2; 2 Pe-2
Dave 3: 3 IL-2; 13 Pe-2
Elias 4: 0 IL-2; 10 Pe-2
It’s hard to know what to make of this. It’s clear that when the
Pe-2s get hit, they get hit hard, and clearly rack up a lot of
VP.
If I was to halve the Pe-2 VP (making a loss worth 1 VP) and
apply it to the current scoring system, we would end up with the
following results:
Elias 1: +2 VPs
Elias 2: +8 VPs
Elias 3: +0 VPs
Dave 1: +7 VPs
Dave 2: +1 VP
Dave 3: -3 VPs
Elias 4: -3 VPs
That starts looking very different. the mean result is 1.7, at
the bottom end of our draw window. Let’s look at what that means
in terms of victory:
Elias 1 = +2 VPs Draw (perception: Finnish Victory)
Elias 2 = +8 VPs Soviet Victory (perception: Soviet Victory)
Elias 3 = +0 VPs Finnish Victory (perception: Finnish Victory,
but the Soviets could have salvaged a draw)
Dave 1 = +7 VPs Soviet Victory (perception: Soviet Victory)
Dave 2 = +1 VP Finnish Victory (perception: Finnish Victory)
Dave 3 = -3 VPs Finnish Victory (perception: Finnish Victory)
Elias 4 = -3 VPs Finnish Victory (perception: Finnish Victory)
There’s almost no change here, except that the Finns’ victories
are a lot less crushing.
What about the flak? Can it be farmed? Currently, none of the
playthroughs seem to have scored more than 1 or 2 VP from going
for the flak. We could drop its value to 1 VP, but at the same
time, with the balance swinging towards the Finns maybe we
should leave as-is.
I’m basically proposing that we leave the scenario as it
currently is with the single change of reducing the Pe-2s to 1
VP per loss. Though maybe I should also drop the draw window by
1 VP.
#Post#: 655--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: Elias Nordling Date: December 3, 2018, 5:37 am
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My last playthrough had 4 VP from the flak and 3 from the
airfield. But that was mostly due to a 100% hit scoring 7 points
on the flak, after which one more hit was worth 2 more points so
I went for that.
#Post#: 656--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 3, 2018, 6:30 am
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If scoring 4 points is a rare event, I have no problem with
that. If it starts to become more common, we may need to drop
the Flak VPs.
#Post#: 660--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: Elias Nordling Date: December 3, 2018, 2:32 pm
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Played V0.5, and discovered a flaw with the current version:
Given the reduced value of the airfield, the Finnish player
isn't under much stress to stop the Soviets from bombing, and
can focus on VP farming. He can assume the Soviets will get 8
points +-2 from bombing and focus on making this up in loss
ratio. You do this bu not spitting the squadrons and send one or
both against green quality bombers (there will be at least one).
In this game, the Soviets scored 8 points for bombing, getting
exactly 12 points on the airfield and 4 on the flak. 2 Finnish
fighters were also lost, while the Soviets lost 3 fighters, 1
Sturmovik (to flak) and 10 Pe-2s.
Net score -4. Even with 6 more hits on the airfield it would
have been a Finnish win.
If the Finnish have to be more focused on disrupting the
bombers, they will break down into flights to hit as many
bombers as possible, and probably cause fewer losses but more
disruptions.
#Post#: 661--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: pilotofficerprune Date: December 3, 2018, 5:15 pm
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The obvious fix would be to push the VPs for the Airfield back
up to a point where it's suddenly more marginal to go farming
bombers. The question is, by how much? Maybe rom 3 VP to 5 VP?
#Post#: 663--------------------------------------------------
Re: E07 Red Star, Blue Swastika
By: Elias Nordling Date: December 4, 2018, 1:45 am
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My gut feeling says 5 vp.
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