Subj : colour-blind
To   : Daryl Stout
From : Barry Martin
Date : Tue Dec 01 2020 09:24:00


Hi Daryl!


 BM> If he was any good he should have been able ..............................
 DS> ..................................................................
 DS> .............
 DS> .................ion
 DS> (severe weather/tornadoes or snow/ice) on one run...to
 DS> practically nothing on the next run.

(Wonder if you did all those elipsises or if something hicoughed?)


 DS>   The models go out to certain time periods, as follows (I'll
 DS> just use a few examples):
 DS> GFS: 384 hours (I think that's 18 days)
 DS> ECMWF: 240 hours (10 days)
 DS> GEM/CMC: 144 hours
 DS> HRRR: 84 hours
 DS>   The thing is, the further out you get from 3 days (72 hours),
 DS> it becomes "a crap shoot" on what might happen.

Agree on the further out the less accurate: too many variables, too many
errors creep in to the calculations, etc.  Essentially like rounding in 
math: short series of numbers and the result is still reasonably 
accurate whereas as with a long series of numbers the rounded answer
can be off by a whole number.


 BM> No snow up here in the short-range forecast,  Have had sub-freezing
 BM> temperatures and a first snow of the season but nothing major: melted
 BM> off by mid-morning.  Did use the snow shovels but wasn't for snow:
 BM> scooped up a pile of leaves.
 DS>   We'll have a hard freeze statewide overnight, so that'll
 DS> finally end the growing season. By late November/early December,
 DS> most of the crops have been harvested. However, one still has to
 DS> protect plants, pets, and pipes; plus to dress for the weather.

Our growing seasom was probably done a week ago, of not then definitely 
this week: this morning I saw a low of 19ø, yesterday I think 25ø.  The
outdoor plants have been trimmed or removed by earlier November -- looks
little blah out there!

 
                         ¯    BarryMartin3@    ®
                         ¯   @MyMetronet.NET   ®

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